1. Dr Maurice Mullard Lecture One October 2010

2.  What comes first – does policy need decide resources or is the economy that sets the context?  Making Decisions on Health and Education Spending  The UK Economic Context 2010  UK Deficit PSBR  UK National Debt

3.  AUTONOMY THE IDEA OF POLITICAL CHOICE AS OPPOSED TO INEVITABILITY  The Coalition Government says there is no alternative to austerity  The Opposition says this will lead to new recession  How do we judge what is the correct analysis

4.  What is political choice in the policy process  CHOICES ON RESOURCES AND THAT CHOICE IS POLITICAL AUTONOMY  THAT AUTONOMY IS CONSTRAINED BY EVENTS BEYOND THE CONTROL OF GOVERNMENT  THE ECONOMY AS A FORM OF CONSTRAINT EVENT

5.  The meaning of Credit Crunch 2007 Bank stopped lending in intrabank markets  Banks making loses on assets  Loss of Capital and Liquidity  UK Northern Rock Lloyds Bank RBS  US Bear Stearns Lehman Brothers AIG

6.  Declining GDP UK but also global GDP –  Loses in tax revenues  UK Stimulus package Germany and USA  Unemployment  Household Net Worth

7.  FIRST INDUSTRIAL NATION ROLE OF MANUFACTURING AND INDUSTRIAL COMMUNITIES  Coal Steel Making Cotton Engineering Staple Industries  Great Depression 1929 mass unemployment  Growht industries aircraft chemcials  Post World War 2  Growth of Service Sector

8.  BRITAIN IN DECLINE – REASONS AND EXPLANATIONS  COMPETITION AND CATCH UP  DECLINE OF MANUFACTURING  DEPRESSION 1929- 1932  POLITICS OF UNEMPOLOYMENT

9.  KUHN AND PARADIGM SHIFTS  FREE MARKETS TO KEYNES TO FREE MARKETS AND BACK TO KEYNES  IMPACT ON POLITICS AND POLITICAL PARTY THINKING

10.  THE ROLE OF THE UK TREASURY  SPENDING MINISTERS  FISCAL POLICY Taxation and public expenditure  Stimulus to the economy  Monetary Policy Interest rates  The Concept of Liquidity  The Savings Paradox

11.  UNDERSTAND THE TWIN CONCEPTS OF AUTONOMY AND CONSTRAINT  HOW TO EXPLAIN POLICY MAKING IN BRITAIN  POLITICAL PARTIES IDEOLOGY AND BELIEFS