1. Historic Range of Variability Jen Costanza Bio 255 October 14, 2005 “The balance of nature does not exist, and perhaps has never existed… the resultant confusion is remarkable” - Charles Elton, 1930

2. Outline Background: –Equilibrium concepts vs. change and instability –Historic range of variability Summary of Landres et al. 1999 and Tinker et al. 2003 –Ecological significance –Methods of assessing HRV –Challenges of spatial and temporal scale –Management applications Future work Discussion

3. Context: Equilbirium and Disturbance Clements – early 20 th Century: disturbance is unnatural and disrupts progression of succession Equilibrium views: –Watt 1947: unit pattern – succession manifests itself in space and time –Bormann and Likens, Whittaker 1950s, 60s, 70s: constant proportion of the landscape in each successional stage Shugart, Turner et al.: disturbance extent small and recovery interval quick = equilibrium Perry 2002

4. Landscape Dynamics Turner et al. 1993 Yellowstone 1988 Pre-1988 Yellowstone Disturbance can lead to stable landscapes with variability

5. HRV Concepts Historic variability of a landscape and its disturbance regime – Qualitative equilibrium White et al. 2000

6. Landres et al. 1999 Natural variability: –The ecological conditions, and the spatial and temporal variation in these conditions, that are relatively unaffected by people, within a period of time and geographical area appropriate to an expressed goal The past as a means of understanding and predicting impacts of current management efforts A way to balance short-term efforts and long-term goals: temporal and spatial context Illustrates the importance of disturbance and temporal change

7. Using HRV to Guide Management Desired Future Conditions may not correspond to Historic Range of Variability

8. Challenges Appropriate spatial and temporal scale May be difficult to fully assess range of variation Reconstructions from further back in time become difficult Historic variation may not be relevant under today’s conditions It may not always be possible to restore the historic disturbance regime

9. Methods to Assess HRV Site-specific measurements, as well as data from similar systems elsewhere Kulakowski and Bebi 2004: –Use HRV for the Rockies to help assess likely HRV for the Swiss Alps Wimberly et al. 2000: –Simulation models –With finer spatial extent, more variability

10. Tinker et al. 2003 Use landscape metrics (pattern) as measure Compare Yellowstone before and after 1988 fires Also compare Yellowstone to nearby Targhee NF before and after clearcutting Spatial scale: Management areas Temporal scale: –Yellowstone: past 300 years –Targhee: 1950 and 1991

11. Mapping Yellowstone NP 1985

12. Historic Maps of Yellowstone NP 0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80-99 1985 Burned Forest Unburned Forest Reclassification 1985 Unburned Forest Burned Forest Unburned Forest Reclassification 1965 350 0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 1965 330 350 0-19 20-39 40-59 1945 Unburned Forest Burned Forest Unburned Forest Reclassification 1965

13. Other Maps 1995 YNP– after large 1988 fire Targhee National Forest: –1950s before clearcutting –1991 after clearcutting

14. Landscape-Scale Metrics

15. Class-Level Metrics

16. Tinker et al. 2003 - Conclusions Large, infrequent disturbances control the landscape structure and dynamics here: 1988 fires expanded the HRV –Temporal extent matters! Before clearcutting: Targhee NF was within the HRV for Yellowstone After clearcutting: Targhee NF was outside HRV We are able to say little about how landscape patterns affect function

17. Future Work - HRV Additional characterization of HRV for more landscapes, at different temporal scales Better understanding of how scale affects HRV and the equilibrium of systems – is there any hope of generality here? More modeling/scenarios to determine how current efforts will affect future conditions

18. Questions for Discussion Is HRV a worthwhile concept? Is HRV an appropriate management tool everywhere? Is there any hope in developing guidelines for spatial and temporal extent of HRV, besides whatever scale is “appropriate”? Is Yellowstone NP at equilibrium over the time period studied? Might the 1988 fires lead to a directional shift in landscape pattern? Why were many of the class-level metrics for the Targhee within the HRV for Yellowstone? Is landscape pattern the best metric to use in assessing HRV? Would managers want to restore the pattern or the process? How could we assess HRV for local landscapes in the Southeast? How could HRV be useful in studying climate ch. impacts?