1. U.S. Immigration: Trends and Consequences Population and Society SOC 331 08.13.08

2. Outline Trends Size Composition Legislation Responses Consequences

3. Trends in US Immigration

4. Immigration History Pre-1875 no laws, UK/Germany, Involuntary Migrants 1875-1920 Limited Laws, SEC European, Heyday of US immigration 1920-1970 Very small flow, “inferior”, WWI and WWII 1970-1986 Kennedy Act of 1965 - eliminated national quotas, Unintended effect was Asian and Latin American Immigration

5. Immigration History (cont) 1986 Simpson-Massoli Act: provided amnesty for undocumented immigrants who had been in US Sanctions for employers who hired undocumented workers Failed - no enforcement Current 800,000-1,000,00 per year

6. Massey’s Return to Aztlan Virtually everyone who wants to get to the U.S. eventually does Equal flow in each direction (Circular Migration) The Chances of begin apprehended at the border are declining

7. Composition

9. Consequences Hotly debated in media but often citing little evidence Impact on Workers Empirical Studies find little impact (Bean et al 1988, Borjas 1994, Friedburg and Hunt 1995, Hamermesh 1993, Smith and Edmonston 1997) National Research Council Report Impact on Fiscal System Pay lower taxes from lower wages Less likely to stay to receive social security and Medicare Welfare and health care costs are negligible

10. Impact on Workers Recurring fear about immigrants Potential loss to native workers But many get pushed up not out (Complement effect) Empirical Study National Studies of all cities comparing change in immigrants and change in wages No evidence of job loss or lower wages for native workers

11. National Research Council Report “The weight of empirical evidence suggests that the impact of immigration on the wages of competing native born workers is small - possibly only reducing them by 1 or 2 percent.” (Smith and Edmonston 1997: 220) “The evidence also indicates that the numerically weak relationship between native wages and immigration is observed across all types of native workers…” (Smith and Edmonston 1997: 223)

12. Fiscal System Often said that extraction exceeds contribution NRC report showed that immigrants and their descendents pay more in taxes than they receive in benefits Younger, so use more school money but use less social security and Medicare Relieve some per capita fiscal burden of native-born for national debt and public goods (more people controbuting)