1. Stratospheric Temperature Trends in GFDL model runs SKYHI AM2 --- New model, atmosphere with specified SSTs. CM2 --- New model, coupled ocean (CM2.1 --- New model, coupled ocean, finite volume dynamical core)

2. SKYHI simulations [see the B-set which employs a more realistic background ozone]  global-annual-mean; zonal-annual-mean; zonal- seasonal-mean. Fixed SSTs; prognostic clouds based on Manabe- Wetherald scheme. Equilibrium simulations for (a) 1979 and (b) 1997. WMGGs (IPCC, WMO). Ozone (Randel-Wu trend data). One calculation with H2O trend estimate (based on Haigh and co-workers). Temperature trend (Randel; Austin; Berlin). B1 (ozone-only); B2 (ozone+WMGGs). Model stat. sig. based on “unforced” runs.

3. Ramaswamy and Schwarzkopf (2002) Model’s unforced variability Model simulation (trace gas changes) } Obs.

4. Ramaswamy and Schwarzkopf (GRL, 2002)

5. S-R (GRL, 2002) ‘filled’  Stat. sig. in model

7. SKYHI simulations….continued Transient (“trns”} integrations [1979-1997]; 4-member ensemble. Ozone change specified as a linear variable at each grid-box and in each month. Results compared with “B1-equilibrium” solution and MSU4.

11. Simulations with GFDL AM2 [Anderson et al., 2004]. Top at ~5 mb {lower top and stratos. resolution than SKYHI}. Prescribed SSTs [Hurrell, 1981-2000]. Transient 4-member ensemble runs [1981-2000]. Temporal (3D monthly-means) forcings: WMGGs (IPCC, WMO); Strat. O3 (Randel); Volcanic (Stenchikov data blended with Sato et al.); Solar (Lean); Trop. aerosol direct effect (sea-salt and dust held fixed; sulfate, black and organic carbon vary with time) and ozone (varies with time) from MOZART2 CTM runs. Runs with SSTs-only and with subsets of forcings. Temperature obs. (Randel; LKS; Austin; Soden). Trend is difference of the end-year values.

12. Solar included in wmgg+o3, wmgg+o3+aero.

13. Solar included in wmgg+o3, wmgg+o3+aero

20. Simulations with GFDL CM2 [Delworth et al., 2004]. Same atmosphere as in AM2. 1860-2000 simulations. 3-member ensemble runs [CM2.0]; 4-member ensemble runs [CM2.1]. Temporal (3D monthly-means) forcings: WMGGs (IPCC, WMO); Strat. O3 (Randel); Volcanic (Stenchikov data blended with Sato et al.); Solar (Lean); Trop. aerosol direct effect (sea-salt and dust held fixed; sulfate, black and organic carbon vary with time) and ozone (varies with time) from MOZART2 CTM runs. Temperature obs. (Randel; LKS; Austin; Soden). Trend is difference of the end-year values.

21. WMGhgO3 = WMGG + StratO3 + TropO3 Anthro = WMGhgO3 + Trop. Aerosol Natural = Solar + volcanic aero.

26. Contributions from J. Austin L. Horowitz K.Labitzke J. Lanzante J. Lean V. Ramaswamy W. Randel D. Schwarzkopf B. Soden G. Stenchikov