1. Synoptic-statistical approaches to regional downscaling of IPCC 21st century climate projections: A Hawaiian Islands study Oliver Timm, International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, University of Hawai'i at Manoa Henry Diaz, NOAA/ESRL/CIRES, Boulder, Colorado Thomas Giambelluca Dept. Geography, University of Hawai'i at Manoa

2. IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, 2007: (more than 20 climate models took part) precipitation change: likely to decrease but for Hawaii, no robust signals Models show a drier climate Models results inconsistentMost models: drier climate Most models: wetter climate No significant change Models show a wetter climate Introduction:

3. H H Synoptic (=weather-related) studies: Months with high/low precipitation in Hilo site of Big Island [sea level pressure, wet season (Nov-Apr) between 1970-2000] High PreciptationLow Preciptation

4. Rainfall controlled by large-scale circulation Trade Wind Regime Kona Wind Regime

5. Model #1Model #28Model #30 Model #38Model #40Model #53 IPPC 21 st century diagnostics: Changes in the mean sea level pressure, wet season 2061-2099

6. Projected rainfall changes Dry season May-October 2030-2060 Rainfall change in percent of present rainfall amount

7. Projected rainfall changes Wet season November-April 2030-2060 Rainfall change in percent of present rainfall amount

8. Projected rainfall changes Dry season May-October 2060-2100 Rainfall change in percent of present rainfall amount

9. Projected rainfall changes Wet season November-April 2060-2100 Rainfall change in percent of present rainfall amount