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Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Oregon Transportation Plan 2005 Modeling Alternative Policy Choices Becky Knudson,

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Presentation on theme: "Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Oregon Transportation Plan 2005 Modeling Alternative Policy Choices Becky Knudson,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Oregon Transportation Plan 2005 Modeling Alternative Policy Choices Becky Knudson, ODOT

2 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Presentation Highlights Analysis Role in Decision Making Analysis Process Evaluation of Alternatives Policies Use of Performance Criteria

3 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Integrated Analysis Integrated analysis blends the features of land use, transportation and economic activity together to represent the interactions and reveal net effects of change POLICY

4 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Value of Integrated Analysis Helps identify factors relevant to policy issues Allows prospective policies to be tested Reveals policy trade-offs Reveals synergies gained by grouping policies

5 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Decision-Making Using Integrated Analysis Steering Committee POLICY QUESTION Steering Committee/Staff REFINE QUESTION RESULTS Staff/Steering Committee Staff TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Decision Making Using Integrated Analysis Four Step Iterative Process

6 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division TO A COLLABORATIVE & ITERATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Policy POLICY QUESTION Policy POLICY QUESTION Policy/Technical REFINE QUESTION Policy/Technical REFINE QUESTION RESULTS Technical/Policy RESULTS Technical/Policy Technical TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Four Step Iterative Process 1. Steering Committee Identify Goals & Objectives Identify General Issues

7 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division TO A COLLABORATIVE & ITERATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Policy POLICY QUESTION Policy POLICY QUESTION Policy/Technical REFINE QUESTION Policy/Technical REFINE QUESTION RESULTS Technical/Policy RESULTS Technical/Policy Technical TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Four Step Iterative Process 2. Steering Committee/ Staff Refine Issues into Specific Policy Questions

8 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division TO A COLLABORATIVE & ITERATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Policy POLICY QUESTION Policy POLICY QUESTION Policy/Technical REFINE QUESTION Policy/Technical REFINE QUESTION RESULTS Technical/Policy RESULTS Technical/Policy Technical TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Four Step Iterative Process 3. Staff Determine Analysis Approach and Data Needs Conduct Analysis Conduct Peer Review

9 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division TO A COLLABORATIVE & ITERATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Policy POLICY QUESTION Policy POLICY QUESTION Policy/Technical REFINE QUESTION Policy/Technical REFINE QUESTION RESULTS Technical/Policy RESULTS Technical/Policy Technical TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Four Step Iterative Process 4. Staff / Steering Committee Presentation of Results Discussion of Results

10 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division TO A COLLABORATIVE & ITERATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Policy POLICY QUESTION Policy POLICY QUESTION Policy/Technical REFINE QUESTION Policy/Technical REFINE QUESTION RESULTS Technical/Policy RESULTS Technical/Policy Technical TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Second Iteration Four Step Iterative Process 1. Steering Committee Identify Goals & Objectives Identify General Issues

11 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division OTP Policy Analysis Process Vision and Goals Policies Issues to be Addressed Evaluation Framework (Performance Indicators) Formulate Approach Analytical Tools OR Statewide Model OR Urban Models Highway Economic Requirements Systems MPO Data Post Processing Analysis Questions to be Analyzed OTP Policies Investment Strategy Final OTP Steering Committee Reviews Results

12 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Basic Evaluation Approach Identify performance criteria Identify alternatives Analyze how well each alternative satisfies performance criteria Judge the total effectiveness of each alternative in meeting each performance criterion

13 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Example: Buying a Car Analyst Style Performance Criteria Model AModel BModel C Price ++++++ MPG +++++++ Reliability +-+++ Comfort ++++++ Safety +++

14 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division New Car Evaluation Matrix Performance Criteria Model AModel BModel C Price ++++++ MPG +++++++ Reliability +-+++ Comfort ++++++ Safety +++ 1089

15 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division New Car Evaluation Matrix Performance Criteria Model AModel BModel C Price ++++++ MPG +++++++ Reliability +-+++ Comfort ++++++ Safety +++ 11712

16 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Evaluation Matrix for OTP Alternative Scenarios Alternative Scenarios Performance CriteriaAlt. 1Alt. 2Alt. 3 Accessibility/ Mobility Economic Vitality Efficiency & Cost Effectiveness Equity Reliability/ Responsiveness Safety Sustainability Public Support/Financial Feasibility

17 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Evaluation Matrix for OTP Alternative Scenarios Alternative Scenarios Performance CriteriaAlt. 1Alt. 2Alt. 3 Accessibility/ Mobility Economic Vitality Efficiency & Cost Effectiveness Equity Reliability/ Responsiveness Safety Sustainability Public Support/Financial Feasibility Definition: A reliable transportation system provides dependable levels of service by mode within established expectations. Objective: To maintain or improve travel time predictability or dependability. Potential Performance Measures: peak-period travel time, off-peak travel time, duration of peak period, incident delay…

18 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Evaluation Matrix for OTP Alternative Scenarios Alternative Scenarios Performance CriteriaAlt. 1Alt. 2Alt. 3 Accessibility/ Mobility Economic Vitality Efficiency & Cost Effectiveness Equity Reliability/ Responsiveness Safety Sustainability Public Support/Financial Feasibility Things that affect reliability: transportation demand, smoothness of traffic flow, traffic incidents Example actions to affect reliability: incident detection and clearance, ramp metering, signal coordination, road system improvements, transit system improvements, road pricing Analysis tools: models and other analysis

19 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Reference Scenario Elements Population and the Economy Land Use Planning Transportation System

20 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Summary ( Modeling Mission Restated ) Analysis will provide information to assist you in recommending the best plan to the Transportation Commission. You will be evaluating the information gained through analysis to understand the merits of individual actions and the effectiveness of different combinations of actions.

21 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division OTP Scenarios Reference Scenario Sensitivity Scenario 1 High Fuel Prices Sensitivity Scenario 2 Relaxed Land Use Controls Alternate Scenario 1 Flat Revenue Alternate Scenario 2 Max Operations & Maintenance without Pricing Alternate Scenario 3 Major Improvements Alternate Scenario 4 Pricing

22 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division OTP Performance Measures Model Generated Output Performance Criteria Accessibility/ Mobility Economic Vitality Efficiency & Cost Effectiveness Equity Reliability/ Responsiveness Safety Sustainability Public Support/Financial Feasibility

23 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division OTP Performance Measures Accessibility/ Mobility Performance Criteria Average annual recurring and non-recurring delay per capita – average delay, Hh, region; average delay vehicle region Average travel time per trip (peak, off-peak, by purpose, region, income class) –average travel time; average trip distance Variable passenger transportation user cost as percent of income (by region, income class) –Passenger costs as percent of income by income category & region Percent of trips with viable transit, bicycle and walk options –Proportion of trips with transit as choice

24 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division OTP Performance Measures Economic Vitality Performance Criteria Change in economic output between alternatives –Total statewide production Change in employment between alternatives –Employment by industry Variable passenger transportation user costs as percent of income –Total labor income as percent of total transport costs by income group Number of workers within 30 minutes of the average job –Number of HH (workers) within 30 min by region

25 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division OTP Performance Measures Safety Performance Criteria Transportation-related fatalities per 100,000 population –HERS – total crash costs by FC and region Transportation-related crashes per 100,000 population –HERS – total crash costs by FC and region

26 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Reference Case – Summary of Impacts Passenger Surface TransportTrucking Rail FreightAviationPorts Accessibility  Mobility  Economic Vitality  Effectiveness and Efficiency  Equity  Public Support & Financial Feasibility  Safety  Sustainability 

27 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Maps Example

28 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division

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34 Lessons Learned Invest time explaining role of analysis Use real-world analogies when possible Automate runs as much as possible, Performance measures are the windows into the model performance, it is crucial they are sound Design a framework for evaluating model performance Spend time creating visual representation of output to review Beware of aggregate averages

35 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Questions? Becky Knudson Transportation Planning Analysis Unit Oregon Department of Transportation 555 13 th St. NE, Suite 2 Salem, OR 97301 503.986.4113 rebecca.a.knudson@odot.state.or.us

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