1. Theories of Voting

2. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting

3. Several models Not mutually exclusive Some explain some thing / voters better than others

4. Political Socialization Vote choice in candidate races (pre) determined by Party Identification Where does PID come from? –early childhood socialization –social groups –stable, even strengthens over time

5. Political Socialization Time ---> Childhood Education Occupation Forces that structure PID Campaign events Ethnicity vote choice

6. Political Socialization ‘08 Dem (39%) 89%10%1% Repub. (32%) 9%90%1% Ind (29%) 52%44%1% ObamaMcCainOther

7. Political Socialization ‘04 Dem (37%) 89%11%0% Repub. (37%) 6%93%0% Ind (26%) 49%48%1% KerryBushNader

8. Political Socialization ‘00 Dem (39%) 86%11%2% Repub. (35%) 11%91%1% Ind (27%) 45%47%7% GoreBushNader

9. Political Socialization Balance of partisans in electorate changes very slowly, since individual’s PID very stable For partisans: –PID -> issues positions as much as issues -> PID

10. Political Socialization Partisans most attentive, most interested Campaign events, information, ads, etc. don’t move their votes They know who to vote for prior to knowing candidates

11. Political Socialization Problems with theory –In US, 1/3 of voters are independent Many of these behave as partisans –Mobilization With everyone, much of the election depends on out moblilzing the other side –2008: fewer GOP voters came out

12. Political Socialization Problems with theory –Not much room for persuastion, converting voters from one side to other –No deliberation

13. Rational Choice Voters have preferences for issues / parties Voters evaluate choices in terms of candidate/party closest to voter’s preference

14. Rational Choice Voters select option closest in “issue space” Candidate 1Candidate 2 Left Right Voter chooses candidate 2

15. Rational Choice Parties in a “market” –Adopt positions to appeal to the median voter –If party strays to far from median (center), they get hammered at the polls

16. Rational Choice Parties in a “market” –What is distribution of voter preferences? Normal (bell-shaped)? Bi-modal?

17. Rational choice If most voters in center Dem GOP Left Right

18. Rational Choice Left Right Dem Gop If few voters in center

19. Rational Choice For “pure” choice model to work –Voters start each election “fresh” Parties also? –Re-evaluate issue positions –This assumes voters know candidate positions, voters know their own positions, voters think election causes policy to change

20. Rational Choice Rational ignorance –In reality, voters have history with parties they know, roughly, where each party is in issue space –Not worth effort to become fully informed –Party labels act as short cuts

21. Rational Choice Problems with theory: –assumes far too much of voter –ignores fact that surveys show voters ill- informed about issues & candidate positions

22. Rational choice Problems with theory –If so many voters in center, why are parties polarized Could be that parties “respond” to major donors, not mass electorate –is this rational? Could be that nominations are controlled by ideological extremists Could be that parties are only polarized in congress –Districting

23. Rational Choice Does it work to explain how people decide on ballot measures?

24. Economic voting A “soft” form of issue voting / rational choice Some voters punish incumbents when times are bad –reward when times are good

25. Economic Voting Prospective –Voters plan ahead, pick candidate best for them Retrospective Voters look backward

26. Economic Voting Self-interested –Vote based on their personal financial situation Retrospective –Vote based on perceptions of the macro- economy

27. Economic voting Parties may also purse economic policies that appeal to certain types of voters –Dems give priority to jobs, at expense of inflation –GOP give priority to fighting inflation, at expense of jobs

28. Economic voting Assumes that Dem voters less hostille to inflation, more worried about jobs This is a Philips Curve logic –Assumes a tradeoff between unemployment and inflation

29. Economic Voting What links between class, party, and voting? –What difference in parties economic policies Tax cuts for who? See Bartels, Unequal Democracy