1. Climate Change and Farm Level Adaptation Strategies in the Midwestern U.S. Rebecca A. Pfeifer Ag Consultant, New Palestine, IN Otto Doering Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Jane Southworth and J.C. Randolph School of Public and Environmental Affairs Indiana University

2. Acknowledgments This research was funded by grant number R 824996-01 from the Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Program of the U.S.E.P.A. The HadCM2 data was provided by the Climate Impacts LINK Project (DETR Contract EPG 1/1/68) on behalf of the Hadley Center and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. The VEMAP data was obtained from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado.

3. Study region Climate change modeled Impact on Farm-Level Decisions planting date variety crop mix Risk Assessments Conclusions & suggestions for further research Climate Change and YOU!

5. V = VEMAP, current conditions S = Sulfate, moderate climate change G = greenhouse gases, more extreme change 0.5X = half current climate variability 1.0X = current climate variability 2.0X = twice current climate variability Naming Conventions

9. Change in Corn Yields under Climate Scenarios

10. Change in Soybean Yields under Climate Scenarios

11. Change in Winter Wheat Yields under Climate Scenarios

12. Corn Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios

13. Corn Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios

14. Soybean Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios

15. Soybean Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios

16. Potential for better adapted genotype Comparison of Yield Response Curves

17. Crop Mix and Returns to Resources under Current Climate

18. Crop Mix and Returns to Resources under Sulfate Scenario

19. Crop Mix and Returns to Resources under Greenhouse Gases Scenario

20. Returns to Resources by Site and Scenario

21. Corn Yield Variability by Scenario at Southern Illinois

22. Corn Yield Variability by Scenario at Eastern Wisconsin

23. Eastern WisconsinSouthern Illinois Risk and Distribution of Corn Yields by Climate Variability

24. Conclusions Climate change will impact midwestern grain farmers, input suppliers, ag financial institutions Impacts will vary significantly within region, especially north to south Adaptation strategies include equipment improvements (working rates), later planting dates, varieties better suited to mid-season heat and climate variability, crop mix adjustments, changes in operation financing

25. Further research Where are the better-suited varieties? Will demand for better adapted crops make them worthwhile to grow? As time passes, models will improve – update research… Will ag policy keep pace with changes to the farming environment