1. 1 Source apportionment of PM in the PCM model John Stedman 23 April 2010

2. 2 Presentation Structure Pollution Climate Mapping (PCM) –Overview of the project –Overview of the model PM 10 and PM 2.5 models for 2008 –Introduction –Maps of some of the components –Verification plots –Source apportionment at monitoring sites –Source apportionment for population-weighted means

3. Pollution Climate Mapping (PCM)‏ Policy Advice to Defra and the DAs –Brings together information from ambient measurements, emission inventories and models Models –GIS-based PCM models Ambient air quality directive reporting, Policy support, AQS reporting, AQS review, AQEG –Mapping current concentrations –Baseline & scenario based projections –Health impact assessment for scenarios SO 2, NO x, NO 2, PM 10, PM 2.5,Pb, CO, benzene, ozone, BaP, As, Cd, Ni, (Hg) Project Manager: John Stedman 3

4. PCM GIS-based models Maps built up from many layers 1.Regional (interpolated from rural measurements) 2.Point sources modelled using dispersion model 3.Area sources modelled using a dispersion kernel approach 4.Other pollutant specific layers 5.Roadside increment model Calibrated using automatic monitoring data from the AURN 1 km grid resolutions + urban major road links Many similarities between ‘gaseous’ and ‘particle’ models, and some differences Particle model (PM 10, PM 2.5, As, Cd, Ni, Pb) components such as re- suspension consistent with each other and other components are consistent with the gaseous models 4

5. PCM GIS-based models: inputs (1) Measurements –Rural measurements to define regional concentrations −SIA, Cl –National network measurements to calibrate models −AURN (FDMS) –Other measurements to verify models −AURN TEOM VCM, partisol −AEA Calibration Club −ERG Emission inventories –1 km x 1 km emission maps –Road link emissions –Emission projections −NAEI year to base year and NAEI year to projection year (e.g. 2015) 5

6. PCM GIS-based models: inputs (2) Met data –Area dispersion kernels –Point sources Model results –HARM/ELMO for SOA –EMEP for SIA emission sensitivity coefficients for projection –VCM for PM 10 –TRACK for regional primary PM Land cover map –For re-suspension modelling 6

7. PCM GIS-based models: outputs GIS maps Base year and projections –Background 1 km x 1 km –Roadside ~ 9000 urban road links Background and roadside exceedance statistics –By zone Population-weighted mean background concentration –For health impact assessment, CBA Source apportionment –Policy development (MACC) –TEN –LAQM/DMRB 7

8. PM 10 and PM 2.5 annual mean models for 2008 Pragmatic approach including many different layers –Process based models as far as possible –Loosely based on ‘Pragmatic mass closure model’ PM 2.5 and PM 2.5-10 for each component –Consistent models for PM 10 and PM 2.5 8

9. PM 10 and PM 2.5 annual mean models for 2008 Secondary inorganic aerosol –Interpolated from SO 4, NO 3 and NH 4 measurements –Scaled for counter-ions and bound water, size fractions Secondary organic aerosol –HARM/ELMO model results Large point sources of primary particles –Explicitly modelled using ADMS Small point sources of primary particles –Small points model using a dispersion kernels derived using ADMS Regional primary particles –TRACK model using EMEP and NAEI emissions Area sources of primary particles –Dispersion kernels derived using ADMS –Calibrated using AURN measurements 9

10. PM 10 and PM 2.5 annual mean models for 2008 Rural calcium rich dusts from soil resuspension –Resuspension model –Emission depends on land cover and hour-by-hour met Urban calcium rich dusts –Surrogate spatial distribution based on population Regional iron rich dusts –Assumed constant 1 µg m -3 PM 10 Iron rich dusts from vehicle related resuspension –Resuspension model –Emission depends on HGV flow on major roads and hour-by-hour met Sea salt –Interpolated from Cl measurements –Scaled for –counter-ions Residual –Assumed constant 1 µg m -3 PM 10 10

11. Maps of some of the components 11

12. Maps of some of the components 12

13. PM 10 and PM 2.5 in 2008 (  g m -3 ) 13

14. Verification plots 14

15. Source apportionment at FDMS monitoring sites 2008 15

16. Source apportionment at FDMS monitoring sites 2008 16

17. Source apportionment at TEOM VCM and Partisol monitoring sites 2008 17

18. Source apportionment for population- weighted means 18