1. 1 Introduction 引言 Details about the changes in the currency policy 匯率政策改變的細節 Japan’s example 日本的例子 The views of Chinese Economists 中國經濟學家的見解 Will it continue to appreciate? 人民幣會否繼續升值？ Views of U.S. economists 美國經濟學家的見解 The Market Economy Status 市場經濟狀況 U.S. Consumption habits 美國的消費習慣 Impact of revaluation on China 人民幣升值對中國的影響 The Effects of the revaluation on the U.S. 人民幣升值對美國的影響

2. 2 The US-China Dispute about the 'Undervalued Yuan' By Darvesh Daswani and Kwok Pui Sum, Stanley

3. 3 Details about the changes in the currency policy 匯率政策改變的細節 From $1USD against $8.28RMB to $1USD against $8.11RMB 由一美元對八點二八 人民幣轉換成一美元 對八點一一人民幣

4. 4 Details about the changes in the currency policy 匯率政策改變的細節 “Managed float“, reset the value of the yuan at the end of each trading day according to the value of a group -- or basket -- of other currencies. Fluctuate in a tight 0.3% daily band “ 受管制的浮動 ” ，人民幣的幣值將於每個交易日後根據一籃子的 貨幣重新調整，匯率浮動幅度維持在 0.3% 內 The basket of currency includes US dollar, euro, Japanese Yen and the won of the Republic of Korea 該一籃子的貨幣包括美元，歐羅，日元及韓圜

5. 5 Japan’s example 日本的例子 In the 1950s to 1960s, the economy of Japan is increasing rapidly. 五十至六十年代，日本經濟起飛 Export to the US from Japan increase dramatically 日本出口到美國的貨物增長迅速 Yet, Japan still succeeds in making the trade balance with other countries. 但日本仍能與別國維持貿易平衡 That’s why the Americans still could withstand the progressively increase in the Japan’s inputs. 故美國仍能容忍日本持續上升的入口

6. 6 Japan’s example 日本的例子 In the middle of 1970s, the bilateral trade surplus gained by Japan (mainly in manufacturing sector) has progressively increased. 在七十年代中，日本與美國的貿易順差擴大 ( 主要集中 於製造業领域 ) It met a peak in 1986 which is equal to 1.4% of the US GDP. After that, Japan continuously keeps a huge surplus in the trading between the two countries. 順差於 1986 到達頂峰，相等於美國的國民生產總值 1.4% ，此後日本一直維持貿易順差

7. 7 Japan’s example ( 日本的例子 ) Absolute contraction in the US’s manufacturing industry was resulted. Then, the US used sanction as a threat to seek immediate actions from Japanese government to deal with the trade imbalance. 美國的製造業萎縮，美國以向日本的出口產品施加贸 易制裁來威脅日本政府，要求日本採取措施解決貿易 不平衡。 ) The Japanese government finally agreed to appreciate yen 日本政府最終讓日元升值 Since 1995, Japan has been in economic recession 自從 1995 ，日本經歷經濟衰退

8. 8 Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People's Bank of China 中國人民銀行行長周小川 Wu Xiaoling, the vice chairman of the People’s Bank of China 中國人民銀行副行長吳曉靈 Yu Yongding, one of the committee members of the currency policy committee of the People’s Bank of China 中國人民銀行貨幣政策委員會委員余永定 The views of Chinese Economists 中國經濟學家的見解

9. 9 Will it continue to appreciate? 人民幣會否繼續升值？ According to Chinese financial analysts: 根據內地財務分析員： Yuan will appreciate in the future 人民幣會繼續升值 Rate of increase will be monitored by the central government in a step by step way. 升值的速度會被中央政府慢慢調控 Not because of foreign pressure but because it would promote China's long-term growth and stability 升值的原因是由於要推廣中國長遠的增長和穩定，而不是由於外國壓力 Slow down the growth of production in export-oriented industrial branches and cut the speed of the economic development in general 此外，於出口主導的生產分支，減慢其增長以減慢整體經濟增長

10. 10 Views of The U.S. Economists 美國經濟學家的見解 Some are in favor of the revaluation 有的贊成人民幣升值 Some governing bodies such as the IMF have sided the U.S. in the debate 有的管理機構如 IMF 於這場爭論中傾向支持美國 Allies such as EU and Japan came to the aid of U.S. 美國的同盟如歐盟和日本協助美國

11. 11 Views of The U.S. Economists 美國經濟學家的見解 Other economists believe that it is just a cover up from the real problems of the U.S. 有的經濟學家認為這只是掩飾美國的真正問題 Chinese imports have been growing faster than exports, so U.S. has no justification 中國的總入口增長高於其總出口增長，以致美國不能 指中國的幣值過低

12. 12 Market Economy Status 市場經濟狀況 MES means that products sold to other countries will be calculated in Yuan rather than in other currencies of third world countries MES 的意思即是貨物出口到別國將以人民幣為單位，而不是以第 三世界的貨幣為單位 China has not met the criteria of the 1930 tariff act 中國未能達到 1930 tariff act 所訂出的條件 China has MES from 43 countries, however, none of them include EU or U.S. 中國與４３個國家有 MES 關係，但當中並不包括美國或歐盟成員 國

13. 13 Market Economy Status 市場經濟狀況 Argument that China will do to U.S. and EU what it did to South American countries 有爭論認為若中國與美國和歐盟建立 MES ，其對南美 國家不履行承諾的行為將再次出現於美國和歐盟身上 U.S. and EU have decided to hold back MES until they get something in return 美國和歐盟決定暫時擱置 MES 直到他們拿到一些好處

14. 14 Market Economy Status 市場經濟狀況 U.S. want China to fulfill the requirements of labor reforms and currency rates 美國要求中國履行勞工改革和匯率的要求 China agreed to 15 years without being an MES upon joining the WTO 中國同意在加入世貿後的十五年內，不求取 MES 待遇

15. 15 U.S. Consumption habits 美國的消費習慣 U.S. largest consuming nation in the world 美國是世界上消費最多的國家 Trade deficit with China was USD $162 billion in 2004 美國與中國的貿易赤字高達 $162 billion China is the 5 th largest exporter to U.S. 中國是美國的第五大出口國

16. 16 U.S. Consumption habits 美國的消費習慣 Many economists relate the trade deficit to low Yuan plus lower cost of labor 很多美國的經濟學家將貿易赤字歸究於過低的人民幣幣值和較低 的勞工成本 U.S. firms starting to shift across to China for production 美國的公司開始將生產線搬往內地 U.S. has threatened to put 27.5% tariff on China if it doesn’t revalue the Yuan 如中國不重估人民幣幣值，美國威脅設立 27.5% 的關稅於中國出 口的貨品

17. 17 U.S. Consumption habits 美國的消費習慣 China reduced tariff rates, decreased amount of quotas, and improved trading rights during 1999 於 1999 ，中國降低關稅與配額，及提升貿易權利 China has been forced to use just 4 years to lower tariffs 中國被強迫於四年時間內降低關稅

18. 18 Impact of revaluation on China 人民幣升值對中國的影響 Domestic banks and firms must become more flexible 國內銀行及公司需更具彈性 Enhance risk awareness and to adapt to the currency change as quickly as possible 提升危機意識及更快適應匯率改變 Surge in hot money flows into China （ Short term ） 熱錢湧入（短期） Stimulate domestic demand 內需增加

19. 19 Impact of revaluation on China 人民幣升值對中國的影響 Dampening effect on foreign investment 減少外國投資 Companies that are already operating on razor-thin margins, will be kicked out of the market due to decrease in export 由於出口放緩，一些經已艱苦經營的公司將面臨淘汰 Affect China’s Western development project 影響中國的西部開發計劃

20. 20 The Effects of the revaluation on the U.S. 人民幣升值對美國的影響 Domestic: China could buy less government bonds and this could lead to the U.S. having financial problems 國內：中國會減少購買美國政府債券，使美國面臨財 務問題 There could be an increase in the jobs provided in the U.S. 美國的職位會有所增加

21. 21 The Effects of the revaluation on the U.S. 人民幣升值對美國的影響 Export: Better trade status with China 出口：與中國更好的貿易地位 Appreciation percentage more a symbolic than economic gain 升值的百分比，其象徵意義高於經濟得 益