1. Something about climate models Philip Mote JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group (home of Academy award winner Ed Miles)

2. Outline zVery brief primer: Global climate change zClimate models zSocioeconomic scenarios zProjections for the Northwest

3. Carbon dioxide: up 32%

4. Global average temperature 18601880190019201940196019802000 0.8 0.4 0 -0.4 -0.8 degrees Celsius

5. The earth is warming -- abruptly

6. A whole bunch of climate models

7. Fluid on a sphere - spherical basis functions

8. 1 BMRC 2 CCC 3 CCSR 4 CSIRO 5 ECHAM3 6 ECHAM4 7 GFDL 8 HadCM2 9 IAP 10 MRI 11 CERFACS 12 PCM 13 GISS 14 HadCM3 15 LMD 16 CSM

10. Natural Climate InfluenceHuman Climate Influence All Climate Influences

11. Outline zVery brief primer: Global climate change zClimate models zSocioeconomic scenarios zProjections for the Northwest

14. IPCC scenarios: radiative forcing (CO 2 only) W/m 2

15. IPCC scenarios: radiative forcing (GHGs + aerosols) W/m 2

16. 21 st century temperature change IPCC (www.ipcc.ch)

17. Temperature change, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990

19. A range of climate change scenarios Estimated climate change from 20 th c. to 2040s using 8 climate model scenarios.

20. Conclusions zClimate models are useful for large-scale future climate changes, with proper caveats zProjections for the Northwest: 0.5°C/decade