1. The AIRPACT-3 Photochemical Air Quality Forecast System: Evaluation and Enhancements Jack Chen, Farren Thorpe, Jeremy Avis, Matt Porter, Joseph Vaughan, and Brian Lamb Laboratory for Atmospheric Research Washington State University

2. Tomorrow’s Air Quality: AIRPACT-3 Daily Forecast System MM5(3.7.3) numerical mesoscale meteorological model SMOKE(2.1): Sparse Matrix Operating Kernal for Emissions processing. CMAQ (4.6): Community Multi- scale Air Quality model:  SAPRC-99 O3 & toxics chemistry  Aerosol (ver.4) in Aitken, accumulation, & coarse modes  Deposition of N, S, O3, & Hg species  12 km x 12 km grid cells, 21 layers  Forecast to 64 hours daily PM species Nitrates Sulfates Organic aerosols Wind-Blown Dust (soon) PM2.5 total mass

3. Daisy-chain Initial Conditions Dynamic Boundary Conditions: spatial & temporal variations from MOZART monthly diurnal average profiles 2005 anthropogenic emissions (SMOKE) Wild and Prescribed Fire Emissions (from BlueSky system) Gridded Emissions Updated Biogenic Emission Model (BEIS3) WSU Dairy NH3 Emissions Module AIRPACT-3 Dynamic Emissions & IC/BC MM5/MCIP Meteorology from UW Weather Forecast System CMAQ

4. AIRPACT3, July, 2006 Ozone and Biogenic SOA Formation http://www.airpact-3.wsu.edu

5. Retrospective long term evaluation Aug – Nov, 2004 (coincident with Columbia Gorge Visibility Monitoring program) 8 hr daily maximum O 3 24 hr daily maximum PM2.5 Speciated PM2.5

6. MM5 forecast performance results August 2004 Surface Temp. ( o C) Wind Direction (deg) Wind Speed (m/s) Precip (mm) RH (%) Mean error-0.351.60.04 Mean abs. error2.4642.31.713 N3256924892254761237823466 Nov. 2004 Surface Temp. ( o C) Wind Direction (deg) Wind Speed (m/s) Precip (mm) RH (%) Mean error0.381.8-0.43 Mean abs. error2.2702.42.114 N3295624416249781088722931 GFS initialization, CCM2 radiation scheme, Reisner-2 moisture microphysics parameterization, Kain- Fritsch cumulus parameterization and the MRF/Hong-Pan planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme

7. Daily maximum 8 hr ozone results P/O vs Observed Timing errors (running 8 hr means)

8. Ranked daily maximum 8 hr ozone for selected sites (Aug/Sept, 2004)

9. Ranked speciated PM2.5 observations and predictions

10. Enhancements to Airpact-3 Wildfire emissions exported to Airpact-3 from the Forest Service BlueSky System BlueSky fire locations & size SMOKE emissions processing for CMAQ Predicted PM2.5 from fires

11. O3 with NOx from fires O3 without NOx from fires O3 difference Wildfire Contributions to Regional Ozone Daily max O3 Sept 2 – 6, 2006

12. Further developments Nested domains (4 km grid cells) Enhanced automatic evaluation NASA products

13. Collaborators & Acknowledgements Collaborating research groups USDA – Forest Service Don McKenzie & Sim Larkin USDA – NRCS Susan O’Neill Funding sources NW-Airquest Consortium NASA ROSES Decision Support System grant

14. Initial evaluation results Ozone 8 hr daily maxima NMB = 6% and NME = 17% Peak values correctly estimated PM2.5 24 hr daily maxima Daily FB range: -75% to +75%, mean FB = 3% Daily FE range: 3% to 79%, mean FE = 50% Speciated PM2.5 Good match with NO3 observations Split decision for NH4: Gorge sites underestimated SO4 underestimated OC and EC overestimated at peak levels (associated with wildfires)

15. Enhancement of Airpact using satellite data OMI-Aura Satellite Retrievals and AIRPACT-3 for NO2 U.S. retrievalAIRPACT-3

16. OMI (American)OMI (Dutch)AIRPACT Urban NO2 along the I-5 corridor: OMI-AURA and Airpact

17. Bias and error maps for Aug-Sept daily maximum 8 hr ozone Normalized mean bias Normalized mean error

18. 24 hr PM2.5 Performance Time Series