1. The Human Population: Patterns, Processes, and Problematics Lecture #7: Fertility Concepts & Measurement Paul Sutton psutton@du.edu Department of Geography University of Denver

2. Keeping our numbers down…. Control of Human Reproduction is one of the most important and revolutionary changes of modern humans This change is comparable in significance to the changes to the death rate

3. Fertility control is NOT just taking the pill or using a condom How do we measure fertility? Why does fertility vary geographically? How do we control fertility? Why do we control fertility?

4. Geographic Variation of Crude Birth Rate

5. What is Fertility? Fertility is about how many children women have In a ‘High fertility’ society women have many children In a ‘Low fertility’ society women have fewer children There are both ‘Biological’ and ‘Social’ components to fertility

6. Biological Components to Fertility Fecundity is a measure of the physical ability to have children Fertility is the actual number of children a woman has (e.g. my mother had four children, me, my brother and my two sisters so here fertility was 4)

7. Infertility/Infecundity (for demographers) Couples who have tried for 12 months to get pregnant and do not are infecund (infertile to lay people) 1995 this rate was 7% of American couples 1965 this rate was 11% of American couples

8. Impaired Fecundity Fecundity does not have to necessarily be measured on a binary (yes/no) basis If….: –A woman believes she can’t get pregnant –Physician recommends a woman not get pregnant for health reasons –A married couple is married for 3 years, does not use contraception, and no pregnancy FECUNDITY is described as “Impaired” 10% of women have ‘impaired fecundity’

9. Fecundity and Age For women, fecundity goes from 0 to non-zero at the onset of menarch (menstruation) Female fecundity generally increases to their mid-20’s and drops to 0 at menopause Male fecundity goes from 0 to non-zero at puberty and generally peaks in mid 20’s also Male fecundity generally drops from mid 20’s as they age but does not have a definite end point like menopause. Male fecundity tends to last longer than female fecundity

10. Some fecundity Statistics… 1998 10,000 babies born to women under 15 in U.S. 1998 158 babies born to women of age 50-54 Ruth Kistler oldest natural mother ever –Gave birth to a child at age 57 in 1956 63 year old Phillipino woman in 1996 gave birth to an implanted embryo

11. Astronomical Fertility A Russian Woman in the 18 th Century gave birth to 69 children with ‘only’ 27 pregnancies

12. What is ‘Maximum’ Fertility in absence of any fertility control? 1) Assume female fecundity from age 15-49 2) Assume 9 months of pregnancy 3) Assume 18 months of breast feeding Result: 1 child every 2.2 years Fertility Rate is 16 children per woman This is a theoretical maximum for a population (fortunately it does not happen)

13. No known society has ever attained the theoretical maximum fertility of about 16 children per woman There are biological reasons for this: 1) Pregnancy is dangerous (The ‘risk’ of pregnancy) Many women would die before if not during the delivery of their 16 th child Not all women are fecund (1/3 of the women in Cameroon are infecund for health/dietary reasons) If women don’t eat enough fat they may experience amenorhea (absence of suppression of menstruation and/or anovulatory cycles (egg-free menstruation))

14. Is Female Menarche (puberty) happening Earlier? The condition of accelerated puberty in girls is more of a hypothesis than a widely observed phenomenon—in spite of anecdotal reports. Your article seemed to emphasize the vague possibility that a host of chemicals, those found in the environment or in foods, could initiate early puberty. But the only scientifically documented cause is the increase in childhood obesity, and the demonstrated involvement of fat cell-derived leptin in initiating pubertal events. Next time, I hope you will do your readers a favor by presenting such stories in a more realistic context, rather than alarming them on the basis of weak scientific evidence. Ruth Kava, Ph.D., R.D. is Director of Nutrition of the American Council on Science and Health in New York.

15. What is ‘Natural’ Fertility? Definition: The level of reproduction that exists in the absence of deliberate (or at least modern) fertility control ‘Natural’ Fertility is much lower than ‘Maximum’ fertility

16. “ The genius of the species has not been to rely on a birth rate so high that it can overcome almost any death rate, no matter how high. The genius of the species is rather to have few offspring and to invest heavily in their care and training, so that the advantages of a cultural adaptation can be realized. Throughout 99% of hominid history, then, fertility was kept as low as it could be, given the current mortality.” (Davis 1981)

17. Conclusion…. Social components of Fertility Much Greater than Biological Components of Fertility Studies of twins show that Biological component of fertility only about 25% (same as biological component of mortality)

18. The Social Components of Fertility ‘Opportunities and Motivations for childbearing vary considerably from one social environment to another’ Hunter-Gatherers: Space children in time, fertility much lower than ‘natural’ fertility Agricultural Societies: High fertility perhaps from demand for people to harvest crops Industrial Society: Very low fertility perhaps from the ‘expenses’ associated with raising kids

19. The Hutterites: A famous ‘High Fertility’ Society Anabaptists (opposed to childhood baptism) Live in Agrarian communities in NE plains of U.S. and Western provinces of Canada 400 came from Russia in late 1800’s Doubled Population 6 times in 100 years In 1936 the TFR for Hutterite women was 11

20. Why Hutterite Fertility so High? Early age of marriage A good diet Good medical care Belief in Bible’s: “Be Fruitful and Multiply” Frequent sex with no contraception High fertility is not rocket science

21. What happened to the Hutterites? Population growth has slowed Communes grow to about 130 and divide New land needs to be purchased Canada passed laws specifically aimed at preventing Hutterites from buying land Technology changed farming and fertility.

22. Other ‘High Fertility’ Societies Shipibo Indians from Eastern Amazon of Peru -Avg Age at Marriage 14 -Avg Age at 1 st Child 15.6 - Total Fertility Rate ~ 11 Hmong Refugees to U.S. in 1980’s same deal: Marry Early, impregnate often Total Fertility Rate ~ 11

23. Age Specific Fertility Rate

24. Fertility obviously varies in space and time… To understand why, 2 questions must be asked How do people control fertility? Why do people want to control fertility?

25. How is fertility controlled? 11 intermediate variables (how’s) through which any social factors (why’s) must operate. (See table on next slide) 3 Phases of Fertility Control 1) Intercourse 2) Conception 3) Gestation

26. ‘Proximate Determinants’ or ‘Intermediate Variables’ controlling fertility