1. GUTS, Fact I, Pictures and Tables Supplemental material to LACEA presentation

2. Description Using Maddison’s data 1870 to 2003. For each country, choose a start year (same for all countries) then for each country choose the pre-depression year such that the growth from start year to that year gives the lowest prediction error in 2003. Units are chosen so that all countries have the same scale for the y axis

19. 1890 as start year for forecast Country Level in 2003Overall1890-19151980-2003 Acceleratio nYear Prediction error (in perce nt) United S290371.86%1.88%2.04%0.16%1901-4.95% Norway260332.35%1.48%2.59%1.12%192957.88% Australi232871.37%1.28%2.18%0.90%191343.17% Canada232362.04%2.96%1.52%-1.44%19212.38% Denmark231331.94%1.93%1.91%-0.02%19011.91% Switzerl222421.94%1.40%0.81%-0.59%1906-0.44% France218611.92%1.31%1.68%0.37%19004.64% Sweden215552.09%1.67%1.48%-0.19%1900-3.23% Netherla214791.60%0.86%2.02%1.16%192934.13% United K213101.37%0.94%2.23%1.30%190010.94% Austria212321.82%1.11%2.03%0.93%19008.29% Belgium212051.53%0.80%1.86%1.06%191353.93% Finland205112.38%1.71%1.77%0.06%1900-4.69% Italy191502.12%2.36%1.79%-0.58%19133.14% Germany191441.84%1.32%1.43%0.12%19025.82% New Zeal175641.29%1.74%1.25%-0.48%19190.68% Median1.89%1.44%1.82%0.14%3.89% Std Deviation0.33%0.57%0.43%