1. Lecture 1 The need for spatially and socially explicit analysis of China’s agricultural development M.A. Keyzer Presentation available: www.sow.vu.nl/downloadables.htm www.ccap.org.cn

2. Hunger & food consumption

3. Issues Can China feeds its animals: Selfsufficiency in cereals, protein feeds and meat Import of feed Import of meat China and world trade How will WTO effect the agricultural economy Major infrastructural works Assess the implications on redirecting water flows

4. Chinese specificity China is not Singapore or Luxembourg The scale of China and the extensive set of features must be accounted for The spatial and social diversity to appear in the structure of the model, not only in numbers on population and surface

5. Population density

6. Consumption of meat - rural

7. Consumption of meat - urban

8. Consumption of rice

9. Consumption of wheat

10. Yield of paddy

11. Yield of wheat

12. Area share of paddy

13. Paddy yield over potential (irrigated)

14. Infrastructure

15. Average transport cost (Yuan / TonKm)

16. Overview of lectures 1.The need for spatially and socially explicit analysis of China’s agricultural development 2.Theoretical background on aggregation: Micro – macro debates 3.Towards a spatially disaggregated AGE- model for the analysis of Chinese agricultural policy

17. Maps Information in large databases Visualization in maps of variables but only one at the time This obscures underlying relations with other variables Use flexible forms (parametric and non- parametric) to investigate patterns and anomalies

18. Data analysis with mollifier

19. Basic data on grain yields

20. Yields after data smoothing

21. Flow of milled rice in China

22. From maps to models Incorporate all a priori knowledge of present situation potentials for change This defines approach in four ways: 1.agricultural potentials 2.physical balances at farm level 3.transport flows between markets 4.welfare approach to agricultural policy Systematic data analysis & preparation is required

23. Central issue: rise of meat demand Three mechanisms at play: 1.Meat demand depends on income consumer demand is shifting towards meat and dairy 2.Relation income - meat demand is not linear large part of the population may still be at low levels of meat consumption: fast growth in medium term: fast growth in medium term: fast growth in medium term 3.Additional feed supply has to come from cereal production or imports Traditional technologies are not sufficient

24. From meat demand to feed demand Three general types of livestock systems grazing systems mixed production systems intensive production system Within intensive system Backyard production largely relying on household and crop residuals Specialized households Large commercial units How does composition of animal systems change in response to increased meat demand ? How does cereal share in feed change in response to increased meat demand?

25. GLS-Estimation of meat demand function (125 countries, 1975-1997)

26. Meat demand China (smoothed) Urban - Rural - Per caput expenditures Total versus meat

27. Meat demand: (data and FAO projections) East Asia South Asia Per-caput meat consumption

28. Projections of feed demand

29. Key trends on meat and feed: findings The magnitude of effects on cereal markets is dramatic:  Meat demand/technology shift: up to +1,800 mill. t. in 2030  Climate Change (IIASA, 2001): - 105 mill. t. in 2080  GMOs: no large effects on yields expected  Price changes necessary to restore balance between supply and demand of meat: + 96% in 2030 worldwide, 119% in 2039 for Asia

30. Besides demand pressure Rural to urban migration Traditional livestock systems becomes more marginal More import ? Locational (spatial) aspect of intensive livestock industry Vegetal proteins as byproduct of industrial processes Environmental pressures emissions of methane and ammonia

31. Conclusions Spatial and social diversity of China must be accounted for. This also facilitates interdisciplinary collaboration. The feed-meat issue is critical for Chinese agricultural policy in the coming decades.