1. European Livestock Policy Evaluation Network (ELPEN) Erling Andersen Danish Centre for Forest, Landscape and Planning Frans Godeschalk The Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI) Brussels 20.11.2002

2. ELPEN Overall objective To build a decision support system for spatially explicit assessments of environmental, economic and social impacts of European livestock policy.

3. The ELPEN approach Livestock systems Agricultural statistical data Farm level information Contextual information Economic modelling

4. Step 1: Agricultural sectors

5. Step 2: Grazing livestock sectors

6. Step 3: Grazing livestock systems A. Land use

7. Step 3: Grazing livestock systems B. Intensity

8. Step 3: Grazing livestock systems C. Size

9. Location of systems Low input grassland systems High input grassland systems

10. Example of application: Two scenarios for area payments  All direct support substituted by:  1. UAA premium  - a unionwide homogeneous area payment on the total farmed area  2. Grassland premium  - a unionwide homogeneous area payment on permanent and rough grassland

11. Example of application: Area payments

12. Example of application: Area payments Permanent grassland systems 58 ha 58 GLU 84% Permanent and rough grass FFI: 19100 Ecu 33% older than 65 78% of UAA in LFA

13. Example of application: Area payments Permanent grassland systems

14. Example of application: Area payments Intensity

15. Example of application: Area payments Size

16. Variables used in the typology

17. Grazing days outside UAA Source: FADN-CCE-DG Agriculture/A-3; adaptation LEI.

18. Grassland data Percentage temporary grass of total grassland

19. Cost of inputs Source: DGagri web Price index 1998 100 = average for all the mentioned member states

20. Conclusions 1 Based on the expert knowledge and FADN data we have build a typology of grazing livestock systems The livestock systems have different environmental profiles enabling policy assessment More detailed information on farming practices and location is needed - reference farms and GIS-analysis

21. Conclusions 2 We need to check the quality of the variables used to build the typology This meeting Questionnarie