1. A WRF Simulation of the Genesis of Tropical Storm Eugene (2005) Associated With the ITCZ Breakdowns The UMD/NASA-GSFC Users' and Developers' Workshop, September 2007 Chanh Q Kieu and Da-Lin Zhang Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of Maryland

2. Content  Introduction  Overview  Model description  Results  Conclusions

3. Climatological conditions for TC genesis:  An underlying warm SST of at least 26 0 C;  A finite-amplitude low-level cyclonic disturbance;  Weak vertical wind shear;  A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT);  A moist lower to middle troposphere; and  A location poleward of 5 0 latitude.

4. TC genesis may occur from  Synoptic-scale control, e.g., MJO, AEWs, monsoon troughs, cold surges  Mesoscale convective systems or MCVs  Mixed gravity-Rossby waves  topography  ITCZ breakdown

5. Breakdown due to barotropic instability, so-called Vortex Rollup (Charney 1962; Nieto Ferreira and Schubert 1997) Breakdown due to the interaction of ITCZ and easterly MCVs (obs, Wang and Magnusdottir 2005,2006) Statistical study by WM06 shows that VR-breakdown is less likely to generate a storm of tropical storm strength compared with MCV-ITCZ interactions

6. Scientific questions:  What are the roles of the ITCZ breakdown and MCVs in tropical cyclogenesis?  What are the effects of vertical shear on tropical cyclogenesis? They will be addressed through a case study of the processes leading to the genesis of Tropical Storm Eugene (2005) using the NCEP reanalysis and satellite data, and 4-day cloud-resolving (WRF) simulations with the finest grid size of 1.33 km.

7. Overview : NCEP’s reanalysis V2 V1 E Hovmöller diagram of the 850-hPa vertical relative vorticity (unit: 10 -5 s -1 )

8. GOES-10/12 VIS 0000 UTC 17 Jul 2005 V2V2 V1V1 Overview of Eugene : TCSP-CIMSS satellite observations

9. GOES-10/12 VIS 0300 UTC 17 Jul 2005 V2V2 V1V1 Overview of Eugene : TCSP-CIMSS satellite observations

10. GOES-10/12 VIS 0600 UTC 17 Jul 2005 V2V2 V1V1 Overview of Eugene : TCSP-CIMSS satellite observations

11. GOES-10/12 VIS 0900 UTC 17 Jul 2005 V2V2 V1V1 Overview of Eugene : TCSP-CIMSS satellite observations

12. GOES-10/12 VIS 1200 UTC 17 Jul 2005 V2V2 V1V1 Overview of Eugene : TCSP-CIMSS satellite observations

13. GOES-10/12 VIS 1500 UTC 17 Jul 2005 V2V2 V1V1 Overview of Eugene : TCSP-CIMSS satellite observations

14. GOES-10/12 VIS 1800 UTC 17 Jul 2005 V2V2 V1V1 Overview of Eugene : TCSP-CIMSS satellite observations

15. GOES-10/12 VIS 2100 UTC 17 Jul 2005 V2V2 V1V1 Overview of Eugene : TCSP-CIMSS satellite observations

16. GOES-10/12 VIS 0000 UTC 18 Jul 2005 V2V2 V1V1 Overview of Eugene : TCSP-CIMSS satellite observations

17. GOES-10/12 VIS 0300 UTC 18 Jul 2005 V2V2 V1V1 Overview of Eugene : TCSP-CIMSS satellite observations

18. GOES-10/12 VIS 0600 UTC 18 Jul 2005 E Overview of Eugene : TCSP-CIMSS satellite observations

19. GOES-10/12 VIS 0900 UTC 18 Jul 2005 E Overview of Eugene : TCSP-CIMSS satellite observations

20. GOES-10/12 VIS 1200 UTC 18 Jul 2005 E Overview of Eugene : TCSP-CIMSS satellite observations

21. Model setup  NCEP Initialization at 0000Z 17 July 2005 when MCVs V 1 and V 2 are about 1000 km apart  Nested resolutions: 36, 12, 4 and 1.33 km.  The 1.33 km domain is activated at 0000Z 18 July and moved manually, following the storm center  Lateral boundaries updated every 6-h  Integrate 4 days to capture the life cycle of the storm

22. Model configuration A B C D N D 1

23. Tracks and Intensities (a) (b) 989 hPa 987 hPa 31 m s -1 38 m s -1

24. V2V2 V1V1 E Hovmöller diagram of the 850-hPa vertical relative vorticity (unit: 10 -5 s -1 ) for the period of 0000 UTC 17 - 0000 UTC 21 July 2005 and the longitude interval of 1150 – 950W.

25. 6-h accumulated rainfall Comparison of the simulated 6-h accumulated rainfall shaded, mm) over a subdomain of C to the corresponding 6-h TRMM satellite-estimated (contoured).

26. 3-D flows during the merging period V1V1 V2V2 V1V1 V2V2 T = 0600UTC18JULT = 1200UTC18JUL B B A A E E T = 0600UTC19JULT = 1800UTC18JUL B B A A

27. Vertical cross sections of tangential flow and PV (shadings) during the merging period V 1 V 2 V 1 E V 2 Vertical cross sections of the normal component of horizontal winds (at 2 m s -1 intervals), PV (shaded at intervals of 0.5 PVU), superimposed by the system-relative in-plane flow vectors along the centers of V1 and V2

28. Radar reflectivity and vertical shear 900 500 700 200 900 500 700 200 900 500 700 200 900 500 700 200 900 500 700 200 900 500 700 200 19/18-66 20/06-78 Horizontal distribution of the radar reflectivity (shaded at 5-dBz intervals). Hodographs with VWS (solid) between 900 and 200 hPa (800 km  800 km) is also sketched. Upper right panels are  e 352 K-isosurface

29. Vertical shear and moist downdrafts A B (a) (b) (c) a) Horizontal distribution of e (2 K), and w (shaded at intervals 0.1 m s -1 for descending and 0.3 m s -1 for ascending) at 700 hPa at 19/12-60; (b) as in (a) but for vertical cross section through the storm center of e (at intervals of 2 K) and deviation potential temperature (’, shaded); and (c) as in (b) but for 19/18-66.

30. Conclusions  The ITCZ breakdown is important, but merging MCVs are critical in the genesis of Eugene  Intensity and track are in mutual influence, especially in shear environment. Too strong storm will impact the movement of simulated storm  Confirms previous findings: Interactions of VWS, ambient dry air intrusion result in a strong asymmetry of rainfall patterns  The interaction between VWS and ambient environment are not limited just to dry intrusion but to an elevated dust layer. This also has some implications to the high frequency cyclogenesis events in East Pacific.

31. Appendix 1  Parameterizations: (a) Kain-Fritsch (1990) cumulus parameterization scheme for the 36- and 12-km resolution domains; (b) the Yonsei University planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization; (c) the Monin-Obukhov surface layer scheme. Note that no cumulus parameterization is used in the 4- and 1.33-km resolution domains.  Radiation: the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) scheme for both longwave and shortwave radiations (Mlawer et al. 1997)  Microphysics schemes: Lin et al. (1983) cloud microphysics scheme containing six classes of hydrometeors  The four nested-grid domains have the (x, y) dimensions of 251  201 (A), 252 ´ 252 (B), 388 ´ 382 (C), and 451 ´ 451 (D) with the grid size of 36, 12, 4, and 1.33 km, respectively  38 s levels: 1.000, 0.993, 0.980, 0.966, 0.950, 0.933, 0.913, 0.892, 0.869, 0.844, 0.816, 0.786, 0.753, 0.718, 0.680, 0.643, 0.607, 0.572, 0.538, 0.505, 0.473, 0.441, 0.409, 0.378, 0.348, 0.318, 0.289, 0.260, 0.232, 0.204, 0.176, 0.149, 0.122, 0.095, 0.068, 0.042, 0.018, and 0.000.  The model top is defined at 30 hPa.