1. Software Process Simulation and Modeling: A Review Walt Scacchi Institute for Software Research UCIrvine Wscacchi@uci.edu http://www.ics.uci.edu/~wscacchi/Presentations/ProSim03http://www.ics.uci.edu/~wscacchi/Presentations/ProSim03/Keynote http://www.ics.uci.edu/~wscacchi/Presentations/ProSim03

2. Overview ProSim, ISPW, FEAST/IWSEProSim, ISPW, FEAST/IWSE ProSim tools, techniques, conceptsProSim tools, techniques, concepts Results, findings, accomplishmentsResults, findings, accomplishments Emerging R&D opportunitiesEmerging R&D opportunities ConclusionsConclusions

3. ProSim, ISPW, FEAST/IWSE ProSim roots: Intern. Software Process Workshops 1980-1990s (ten)ProSim roots: Intern. Software Process Workshops 1980-1990s (ten) ProSim Workshop legacy: 1998-2003 (four)ProSim Workshop legacy: 1998-2003 (four) –40 journal papers (JSS, SPIP ) ProSim cousins:ProSim cousins: –Feedback, Evolution and Software Technology (FEAST) –Intern. Workshop on Software Evolution

4. ProSim Focus Areas Software Process Simulation and ModelingSoftware Process Simulation and Modeling –Project modeling and simulation –Process simulations and simulators –COTS vs. custom simulation packages –Group, team, engineering and evolution processes –Centralized and distributed processes –Relation to other process engineering activities Analysis, redesign, visualization, scheduling, etc.Analysis, redesign, visualization, scheduling, etc.

5. ProSim Tools Commercial simulation & modeling packagesCommercial simulation & modeling packages –Discrete-event –Systems dynamics (continuous systems) Research prototypesResearch prototypes –Knowledge-based systems –Multi-agent systems –Distributed systems –Model-driven process support environments –Meta-modeling/process ontology interpreters

6. Discrete-event simulation and modeling

7. FEAST Systems Dynamics Modeling for Simulation

8. Vensim Systems Dynamics Modeling and Simulation

9. Knowledge-based process modeling

10. ProSim Techniques Descriptive M&S: Collect empirical data on existing software processes to reproduce observed patterns, or to improve themDescriptive M&S: Collect empirical data on existing software processes to reproduce observed patterns, or to improve them Pro/Prescriptive M&S: Construct M&S that demonstrate advantages of new processes compared to some real/imaginary baselinePro/Prescriptive M&S: Construct M&S that demonstrate advantages of new processes compared to some real/imaginary baseline Experimental M&S: Construct M&S that test theoretical propositions or enable exploration of emerging conceptsExperimental M&S: Construct M&S that test theoretical propositions or enable exploration of emerging concepts

11. Descriptive capture and tabular coding of process model details

12. Lehman Software Evolution Growth Data

13. ProSim EngineeringTechniques Meta-modelingVisualization Instantiation and enactment Modeling Prototyping and walkthrough Monitoring and measurement Analysis Change management History capture and replay SimulationIntegration Repair and Improvement Redesign Environment generation Evolution and asset mgmt.

14. As-is vs. to-be process

15. ProSim Concepts Meta-modeling vs. modelingMeta-modeling vs. modeling Model-driven process support environmentsModel-driven process support environments –Simulators, PSE/IDEs, Web-based process hypertext/media Process improvement via simulation, analysis, and redesignProcess improvement via simulation, analysis, and redesign Process depth vs. breadthProcess depth vs. breadth

16. Process Meta-Model (left) and example process model (right)

17. Results, Findings, Accomplishments Identifying high-yield and pathological processes and process domainsIdentifying high-yield and pathological processes and process domains Software evolutionSoftware evolution Software process improvement/redesignSoftware process improvement/redesign Software process vs. business processSoftware process vs. business process Hybrid simulations/modelsHybrid simulations/models Process modeling languagesProcess modeling languages –JIL, PML, xPADL, BPEL4WS (?)

18. Web-based process hypertext example

19. A complex SDLC process model : a decomposition-precedence relationship view (19 levels of decomposition, 400+ tasks)

20. Research grant justification and approval process at Office of Naval Research

21. Missing Results, Findings, Accomplishments M&S of CMM assessed processesM&S of CMM assessed processes M&S of alternative SDLC process/tool frameworks (Waterfall vs. Spiral vs. Agile)M&S of alternative SDLC process/tool frameworks (Waterfall vs. Spiral vs. Agile) M&S software deployment/release, diffusion, and adoption processesM&S software deployment/release, diffusion, and adoption processes M&S of software evolution process acrossM&S of software evolution process across –Product lines –Product/technology generations

22. Emerging ProSim R&D Opportunities M&S open source software development/evolution processesM&S open source software development/evolution processes Open source ProSim tools and M&S examplesOpen source ProSim tools and M&S examples Global ProSim interoperability testbedsGlobal ProSim interoperability testbeds Computer Game-based ProSim tools and techniquesComputer Game-based ProSim tools and techniques

23. Emerging ProSim R&D Opportunities M&S open source software development/evolution processesM&S open source software development/evolution processes

24. Release Process for NetBeans.org Release candidate 2 Release candidate 1 Developmen t build Q build Release Manager source code Module maintainer QA Team Test (NetBeans) User Use (NetBSeans, Issuezilla) List of bugs to fix Final Release Developer Write bug fix (NetBeans) Check (NetBeans, Mailing list) Module plan Roadmap Decide future release dates Determine project features (Mailing list) Schedul e Release proposal Start a new release phase (Mailing list) Determine main features (Mailing list) Build (CVS scripts) Board member Release Manager NetBeans Web Site Create module web page (Web site) List of bugs Release information update (SourceCast) Check (NetBeans, Mailing list) Check (NetBeans, Mailing list) Decide which bugs to fix (Issuezilla) Site administrator Download links (SourceCast) Module Web Page

25. Linux Kernel growth

26. GNOME Growth

27. Emerging ProSim R&D Opportunities Open source ProSim tools and M&S examplesOpen source ProSim tools and M&S examples

28. Protégé 2000 OSS Modeling Tool

29. Emerging ProSim R&D Opportunities Global ProSim interoperability testbedsGlobal ProSim interoperability testbeds

30. Global ProSim testbed concept

31. Emerging ProSim R&D Opportunities Computer Game-based ProSim tools and techniquesComputer Game-based ProSim tools and techniques

32. Computer game process simulation environment

33. Another game M&S environment

34. QuakeCon LAN Party with >1700 game players

35. Conclusions R&D in Process Simulation and Modeling is active, sustained, growingR&D in Process Simulation and Modeling is active, sustained, growing Systems Dynamics remains the major mode of ProSim research, though this may require rethinkingSystems Dynamics remains the major mode of ProSim research, though this may require rethinking ProSim has produced substantial results and accomplishmentsProSim has produced substantial results and accomplishments New opportunities for ProSim R&D are apparent and high valueNew opportunities for ProSim R&D are apparent and high value

36. Acknowledgements The research in this presentation is supported by grants from:The research in this presentation is supported by grants from: – National Science Foundation #IIS-0083075, #ITR-0205679, #ITR-0205724#IIS-0083075, #ITR-0205679, #ITR-0205724 –No endorsement implied. Collaborators: Mark Ackerman (UMichigan), Les Gasser (UIUC), John Noll (SCU), Margaret Elliott and Chris Jensen (UCI-ISR)Collaborators: Mark Ackerman (UMichigan), Les Gasser (UIUC), John Noll (SCU), Margaret Elliott and Chris Jensen (UCI-ISR)