1. Simulations of ozone over Israel, West Bank, and Jordan E. Weinroth, M. Luria, A. Ben-Nun, C. Emery, J. Kaplan, M. Peleg and Y. Mahrer Seagram Center for Soil and Water Sciences Faculty of Agriculture The Hebrew University Rehovot 76100 Israel weinroth@agri.huji.ac.il S. Kasakseh, Applied Research Institute Jerusalem Bethlehem, West Bank J. Safi, Environmental Protection Research Institute Gaza City, Gaza R. Bornstein, Dept. of Meteorology, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA, USA Atmospheric Sciences and Air Quality Conference 27–29 April 2005, San Francisco, California weinroth@agri.huji.ac.il

2. OUTLINE PROJECT OBJECTIVES METEOROLOGICAL PATTERNS RAMS & MM5 RESULTS EMISSION PATTERNS CAMx RESULTS CONCLUSIONS

3. Specific project objectives: (1) Install environmental monitoring sites (2) Prepare environmental databases (3) Prepare regional climatology (4) Conduct field campaigns during periods conducive to poor regional AQ (5) Apply RAMS & MM5 to CAMx to increase understanding of current & future air quality problems

4. Topo map of study area Land-use map

6. Emission Inventory: 1997- 8 15 Large Stationary (point) sources (58% fuel consumption) 400 Medium Stationary (point) sources (7%) Small Stationary (area) sources (12%) Solvents (area) sources Biogenic Stationary (area) sources (isoprene and monoterpene) Mobile (area) sources, both ground based and aerial (22%)

10. Weather Conditions Pre-episode : weak Persian trough  slow V & low mixing depth  high NOx  O 3 titration (costal) Episode : trough strengthens  increased surface HPG  augmented westerly sea breeze front  high inland O 3 concentration Med Sea

11. 900Km 270 Km 360 Km 180 Km 270 Km Cell 20X20 Km 2 Cell 5X5 Km 2 1.25X1.25Km 2 RAMS Non hydrostatic meso-met model 3 nested grids Initialized & updated every 6 h with ECMWF output Topography from GTOPO30 project, horizontal grid spacing of 30 sec (approx 1 km 2 ) Local land-use and DTM data (25 x 25 m 2 ) for 2nd and 3rd grids. RAMS met input to CAMx

12. RAMS 5 m/s 1.8.97 7:00 1.8.97 19:00

13. Elyakim StationOr Akiva Station Wind speed ( m/s) Temperature ( C )

14. New MM5 at SJSU Close as possible to RAMS set-up 3 two-way nested grids Initialized & updated every 6 hr with ECMWF fields Topography from GTOPO30 project, horizontal grid spacing of 30 sec (approx 1 km 2 ) Land-use & DTM (25 x 25 m 2 ) for 2nd & 3rd grids MM5 Met fields will also be used as input to CAMx Meso wind convention: flag is 5 m/s & full barb is 1 m/s

15. 1.8.97 19:00 1.8.97 7:00 MM5

16. CAMx Map projection: Polar Stereographic Grid area: 270 x 370 km 2 cells at 5 X 5 km 2 Transport algorithm: area preserving flux-form advection solver (Bott 1989) CBM-IV: Carbon Bond Mechanism + CMC fast solver Plume-in-grid: sub model for main stationary sources; maturity parameters 2500 m or 12 h

17. CAMx model Jerusalem Flight Path 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 מקרא O 3 ppb 1.8.97 15:00 RAMS/Camx Results vs Airborne Measurements: 300 m AGL

18. RAMS/Camx O 3 : Results vs Measurements

19. All emission sources 1.8.97 15:00 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 Legend O 3 ppb All industry sources Without industry sources 1.8.97 15:00 1.All emission sources 2.All Industry sources 3.Main (large) Industry sources 4.Medium and small (low) industry 5.Without Industry; only Vehicles, Solvents & Vegetation 6.Vehicles only 7.Without vehicles = All Industry, Solvents & Vegetation 8.Without emissions (initial and boundary conditions) 8 Emission Input Scenarios 1.8.97 15:00

20. Ozone Peaks for all Scenarios: 1 Aug ‘97 Source O 3 Peak (ppb) Comparison to “All Sources” Peak in % (discounting initial 45 ppb) All sources 116100% Without emissions 5615% Industry low 5818% All industry 9875% Industry large 9773% Without Industry 8251% Without vehicles 10381% Vehicles 8049%

21. Summary of results: Temporal & spatial emission patterns reflect land use patterns Spatial & temporal variations in met factors & air quality concentrations were reproduced RAMS & MM5 reproduce observed transport patterns CAMx ozone reproduces transboundary transport patterns observed by aircraft

22. Current Efforts: CAMx + current emissions + RAMS or MM5 ARIJ, EPRI, & HUJI planners to identify future emission scenarios for CAMx from 2010 & 2020 population conditions (when regional populations will have doubled present values) Jordanian scientists joined project

23. FUNDING: USAID/MERC PROGRAM