1. Planning in Education (Enrollment Projection & Resources Mobilization) EDM6212: Planning & Finance in Education Faculty of Education, CUHK Y.P. Chung 2004

2. Planning & Policy-making in Education Two major questions to ask: –Desirable? (Why?) Efficiency & productivity concerns Equity & distribution concerns Participation, socialization & social cohesion concerns –Feasible & sustainable? Enrollment projection Resources mobilization

3. Enrollment Projection E.g. Development of compulsory education –Social demand & schedule of development –Coverage Gender & Age –Enrollment projection Population structure Stock & flow model

4. Stock & Flow Model

5. Enrollment Projection 1

6. Enrollment Projection 2

7. Variables & Parameters Stock –Population by age & gender –Stationary number at a specific time point Flow –Changes over time: in- & out-flows –Parameters affecting changes “Natural” – e.g. mortality rate “Policy” - e.g. compulsory education law Areas of research

8. Some Technical Information Planning-tables & electronic spread-sheet Space research spin-off Cell definition & content Row and column Data (number) Formula Cell reference in formula Variable: row and/or column Fixed reference Automatic calculation & re-calculations

9. Projection of primary enrollment Spread-sheet 1 –Retention rate estimation Spread-sheet 3 –Enrollment projection Spread-sheet 2 –Internal efficiency of student flow Spread-sheet 4 –Resources estimation: teacher requirement

10. UNESCO – Basic Education Model

11. Teacher Requirement : S-F 1

12. Teacher Requirement : S-F 2

13. The Planning & Policy Variables in Teacher Planning Planning Variables –Social demand & the population structure –Development trend & projection: the basic model Given existing policy parameters Stock & flow model Uncertainty & robust test Effects of New Policies –Policy with direct effects – simple projection from basic model –Policy with indirect effects – policy research

14. Teacher Demand Model

15. Teacher Demand – Two sources

16. Teacher Demand – New demand

17. Teacher Demand – Replacement demand

18. A1: New Demand for Teachers A2: Student enrollemnt A3: Curriculum arrangement e.g. –Class-meetings per week –Teacher-load for different subject A4: Teacher-Student ratio

19. Student Enrollment A5: Enrollment ratio A7: Legislation on compulsory educ Education for production Education for social integration A8: Social demand Education as human capital Education as social capital Education as positional goods

20. A6: School-age Population A9: Population structure Production age A10: Fertility rate & Mortality rate Family planning & female education Health, community hygiene & medicine War & epidemic outbreak A11: Net immigration Level of development Immigration law

21. B1: Replacement Demand B2: Age structure of the existing teaches B3: Leaving rate of teachers B4: Salary schedule International comparison Comparison with other careers Rate of growth & maximum B5: Working conditions EC-Report 5

22. Teacher Continuous Professional Development Leaving rate –Testing & screening Norm- or Criterion-referenced –Heavy burden (teacher work-load) Retention rate –Improvement of competency –Career growth The professionalization of teachers

23. Planning & Policy-making in Education Two major questions to ask: –Desirable? (Why?) Efficiency & productivity concerns Equity & distribution concerns Participation, socialization & social cohesion concerns –Feasible & sustainable? Enrollment projection Resources mobilization –Who should pay? & how much? –Stakeholders –Cost/Benefit analysis