Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Climate Change and Douglas-fir Dave Spittlehouse, Research Branch, BC Min. Forest and Range, Victoria.

Published by Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Climate Change and Douglas-fir Dave Spittlehouse, Research Branch, BC Min. Forest and Range, Victoria."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Change and Douglas-fir Dave Spittlehouse, Research Branch, BC Min. Forest and Range, Victoria

2 Outline Climate changes for PNW Implications for Douglas-fir Management – vulnerability assessments and adaptation

3 Future Climate(s)? Increase in Global Mean Temperature Temperature difference from 1980-1999 (  C) 1 0 2 3 4 1900 2000 2100 Historic Large reduction in emissions – B1 Medium reduction in emissions – A1B Minimal reduction in emissions - A2 Total cut in emissions now (Adapted from IPCC - Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis)

4 Change in Summer Maximum Temperature from Current Conditions, CGCM2-A2 http://pacificclimate.org 2080s 2050s

5 Change in Winter Minimum Temperature from Current Conditions, CGCM2-A2 http://pacificclimate.org 2080s 2050s

6 http://pacificclimate.org Change in Summer Precipitation from Current Conditions, CGCM2-A2 2080s 2050s

7 Change in Winter Precipitation from Current Conditions, CGCM2-A2 http://pacificclimate.org 2050s 2080s

8 (Little 1971) Climate change and Douglas-fir

9 Change in Douglas-fir climates in US  4  C warming (Rehfeldt et al. 2006) Current 2020s2050s 2080s

10 Douglas-fir climate in BC Current Climate range 2080s  4  C warming (Hamman and Wang 2006) 10%

11 Douglas-fir Seed Planning Zones Mean annual temperature Current  C 3 4 5 7 8 9

12 Douglas-fir Seed Planning Zones Mean annual temperature Current  C 3 4 5 7 8 9 2050  C 5.5 6.5 7 9 10 11

13 Environmental factors Photosynthesis – light, nutrition, soil water, temperature, CO 2 Respiration – temperature, soil water, photosynthesis Physiology (e.g., carbon allocation, bud set) – temperature - chilling, frost Genetics Disturbance – fire, insects, disease, harvest/reforestation, weather (wind, frost)

14 Net ecosystem productivity = Photosynthesis - Respiration Douglas-fir, Vancouver Island Photosynthesis = F(PAR, Air temperature) Respiration = F(Air temperature) Respiration = Tree + Soil Net primary productivity Monthly relationships derived from 1998 to 2005 data (Morgenstern et al. 2004, Jassel et al. 2007, Schwalm et al. 2007) Calculate historic (1976-2007) and future (2008-2056) NEP, G, R for a 50-yr-old forest

15 Annual air temperature 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 197619861996200620162026203620462056 Year Temperature (  C) Minimum Maximum Annual PAR 7500 8500 9500 PAR (mol m -2 y -1 ) Warming trend

16 Photosynthesis, Respiration and Net Ecosystem Productivity for a 50-y-old Douglas-fir stand 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 197619861996200620162026203620462056 gCm -2 y -1 Photosynthesis Respiration NEP Warming trend

17 Water availability and growth Precipitation in fall, winter and early spring >> evaporative demand Amount of water in May through July to meet evaporative demand Summer water availability = (May, June & July Rainfall) + 60% of water storage capacity of the root zone Water storage capacity = f(texture, stone content, depth)

18 Summer water availability (mm) Tree height and water - Coastal Douglas-fir (Spittlehouse 2003) 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 150170190210230250270290 Site Index @50 y (m) 800 900 600 400 500 700 Volume @ harvest (m 3 ha -1 ) May-July evaporative demand

19 Influence of climate change  Temperature  Evaporative  Summer water °C demand (%) balance (mm) 1 3 2 7 3 10 4 15 (Spittlehouse 2003)  ppt -10% -20% -20 -32 -25 -40 -30 -45 -40 -53

20 Change in growth by 2050 for the CGCM2-A2 scenario Evaporation + Precipitation: 10% reduction in volume Temperature: 15% reduction in NPP Total: 25% reduction over 50 y

21 Reforestation Increased risk of failure due to drier summers

22 Possible offsets? CO 2 fertilization Increased water use efficiency

23 Disturbance Fire: +4  C temperature - Increase length fire season 4 to 20 days - Increase severity ratio by 0 to 50% (Flannigan et al. 2005) Insects and disease - ?

24 Vulnerability to climate change Timber supply for the next 50 years Reforestation and trees for >50 years Forest operations Water quality and quantity NTFP Wildlife habitat Conservation

25 Adaptation Reduce vulnerability - Minimise negative effects - Take advantage of opportunities Biological - Adapt the forest to the changing climate Societal - Adapt to the response of forests to the changing climate

26 Challenges When will we know enough to respond? Which climate scenario? Species/provenance climate sensitivity Developing interim adaptive actions Who manages the risk? Scale

27 Summary Significant change in the area of climate suitable for Douglas-fir Provenances and optimum climate Reductions in productivity - increase in respiration - increase in water restriction to photosynthesis Increase in fire, reforestation failure Vulnerability assessments

Download ppt "Climate Change and Douglas-fir Dave Spittlehouse, Research Branch, BC Min. Forest and Range, Victoria."

Similar presentations

Michael Hanemann University of California, Berkeley Guido Franco California Energy Commission California Climate Action Team March 11, 2009 Sacramento.

Michael Hanemann University of California, Berkeley Guido Franco California Energy Commission California Climate Action Team March 11, 2009 Sacramento.
– Winter Ecology. Introduction  Global Climate Change  How microbs may be affected by snowpack depth  Temperature/precipitation trends.

– Winter Ecology. Introduction  Global Climate Change  How microbs may be affected by snowpack depth  Temperature/precipitation trends.
Climate Change and Irish Forestry EU Directors of Forestry 27- 28th March 2013 Eugene Hendrick.

Climate Change and Irish Forestry EU Directors of Forestry th March 2013 Eugene Hendrick.
Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,

Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,
Univ. of Alberta Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Agriculture R.F. Grant Dept. of Renewable Resources, Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton,Alberta.

Univ. of Alberta Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Agriculture R.F. Grant Dept. of Renewable Resources, Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton,Alberta.
 Homework #9 Due Wednesday  Quiz #4 Wednesday  Group Outline Due Wednesday  Exam #4 – Nov. 28th  Group Presentations – Dec. 3 & 5.

 Homework #9 Due Wednesday  Quiz #4 Wednesday  Group Outline Due Wednesday  Exam #4 – Nov. 28th  Group Presentations – Dec. 3 & 5.
The C budget of Japan: Ecosystem Model (TsuBiMo) Y. YAMAGATA and G. ALEXANDROV Climate Change Research Project, National Institute for Environmental Studies,

The C budget of Japan: Ecosystem Model (TsuBiMo) Y. YAMAGATA and G. ALEXANDROV Climate Change Research Project, National Institute for Environmental Studies,
The Effects of Site and Soil on Fertilizer Response of Coastal Douglas-fir K.M. Littke, R.B. Harrison, and D.G. Briggs University of Washington Coast Fertilization.

The Effects of Site and Soil on Fertilizer Response of Coastal Douglas-fir K.M. Littke, R.B. Harrison, and D.G. Briggs University of Washington Coast Fertilization.
Impacts of Climate Change on Western Forests Dr. Mark Johnston Saskatchewan Research Council and Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative.

Impacts of Climate Change on Western Forests Dr. Mark Johnston Saskatchewan Research Council and Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative.
Scaling Laws, Scale Invariance, and Climate Prediction

Scaling Laws, Scale Invariance, and Climate Prediction
Monitoring Effects of Interannual Variation in Climate and Fire Regime on Regional Net Ecosystem Production with Remote Sensing and Modeling D.P. Turner.

Monitoring Effects of Interannual Variation in Climate and Fire Regime on Regional Net Ecosystem Production with Remote Sensing and Modeling D.P. Turner.
1 Climate change and the cryosphere. 2 Outline Background, climatology & variability Role of snow in the global climate system Contemporary observations.

1 Climate change and the cryosphere. 2 Outline Background, climatology & variability Role of snow in the global climate system Contemporary observations.
Changing Nature of Rural Landscapes and Communities John Williams NSW Commissioner for Natural Resources.

Changing Nature of Rural Landscapes and Communities John Williams NSW Commissioner for Natural Resources.
Dave Sauchyn, Ph.D., P.Geo. C-CIARN Prairies Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry Ottawa, December, 2002.

Dave Sauchyn, Ph.D., P.Geo. C-CIARN Prairies Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry Ottawa, December, 2002.
Washington State Climate Change Impacts Assessment: HB 1303 Key Findings JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Washington State University.

Washington State Climate Change Impacts Assessment: HB 1303 Key Findings JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Washington State University.
Water use and water use efficiency in west coast Douglas-fir Paul Jassal, Andy Black, Bob Chen, Zoran Nesic, Praveena Krishnan and Dave Spittlehouse University.

Water use and water use efficiency in west coast Douglas-fir Paul Jassal, Andy Black, Bob Chen, Zoran Nesic, Praveena Krishnan and Dave Spittlehouse University.
Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington October 6, 2009 CIG Fall Forecast Meeting Climate science in the public interest.

Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington October 6, 2009 CIG Fall Forecast Meeting Climate science in the public interest.
The Effects of Nitrogen Fertilization on Nutrient Cycling and Forest Productivity By: Eric Sucre.

The Effects of Nitrogen Fertilization on Nutrient Cycling and Forest Productivity By: Eric Sucre.
Planning for Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest Amy Snover, PhD Climate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth System University of Washington.

Planning for Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest Amy Snover, PhD Climate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth System University of Washington.
Climatic variability, land-cover change, and forest hydrology in the Pacific Northwest David W. Peterson JISAO Climate Impacts Group Forest Hydrology.

Climatic variability, land-cover change, and forest hydrology in the Pacific Northwest David W. Peterson JISAO Climate Impacts Group Forest Hydrology.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google