1. Hurricanes in other climates: Thermodynamic genesis factors Robert Korty Texas A&M

2. Geologic evidence sand layer from a prehistoric hurricane Photo courtesy of Kam-biu Liu, LSU. Photo courtesy of Jon Woodruff. Sedimentary core from Nicaragua… …from Massachusetts. Hurricane Carol Great New England Hurricane Great Colonial Hurricane Great September Gale

3. Tropical cyclone genesis studies Observations analyzed in work by Gray (1968, 1979) Revisited by Emanuel and Nolan (2004), Camargo et al. (2007) Dynamic constraints low vertical wind shear incipient vortex (supply of vorticity) Thermodynamic requirements enthalpy flux from ocean to atmosphere sounding supportive of deep convection mid-tropospheric humidity

4. 1 2 3 4 Thermodynamic speed limit for hurricanes

5. First Law of Thermodynamics The internal energy dU changes when: 1.heat dQ is exchanged between a parcel and its environment 2.work is done by a parcel on its environment (or vice-versa) For a cyclic process in which the internal energy does not change (you end up where you started), then any heating dQ must be balanced by work done to or by the system dW. In this case This cycle has a maximum efficiency, the Carnot engine. This is the physics that sets the speed limit on how intense a tropical storm can be.

6. Thermodynamic speed limit for hurricanes The heat input at the surface comes from two sources: 1.Fluxes of heat--actually, enthalpy, k--from the ocean 2.Dissipative heating from recycled frictional dissipation Radiative cooling to space is done at convective outflow temperature, T o. This is called the maximum potential intensity. (Emanuel 1986; Emanuel 1988; Holland 1997; Bister and Emanuel 1998)

7. Thermodynamic speed limit for hurricanes Sea surface temperature T s affects limit, but does not independently control it. These two do: 1.The difference between T s and T o, which is largest where convection is deepest 2.Thermodynamic disequilibrium between the saturated ocean surface and the overlying marine boundary layer. Nothing magic happens when water is 26 o C. In our present climate, the 26 o C isotherm is usually found near the region of trade inversions in the subtropics. In others, a different value could be.

8. Late Quaternary climate forcings Mid-Holocene (6ka) CO 2, CH 4 : 280 ppm, 650 ppb Substantial  TOA radiation Last Glacial Maximum (21ka) CO 2, CH 4 : 185 ppm, 350 ppb; ice Smaller  TOA radiation Latitude W/m 2

9. Storm season potential intensity Latitude m/s

10. Change in potential intensity at LGM m/s Latitude weaker at LGM than Preindustrial stronger at LGM than Preindustrial

11. Change in potential intensity 6000 years ago m/s Latitude weaker in mid Holocene than Preindustrial stronger in mid Holocene than Preindustrial

12. Change in convective outflow T 6000 years ago oCoC Latitude

13. Change in surface temperature 6000 years ago oCoC Latitude Sahel rainfall and cloudiness increase.

14. Change in surface entropy 6000 years ago Latitude J/(kg K) warmer, wetter, or bothcooler, drier, or both

15. Mid tropospheric dryness Nascent storms are impeded by dry air in the mid troposphere. Downdrafts choke off supply of high entropy boundary layer air. Time needed for genesis shortens when entropy deficit is small. Entropy deficit is related to the saturation deficit, and it is strongly affected by temperature.

16. Relative humidity Temperature Saturation entropy deficit: s* – s

17. Relative humidity Temperature Saturation entropy deficit: s* – s

18. growing entropy deficit lower inhibition to development Changes in entropy deficit (ds = s b – s m ) at LGM Latitude

19. Eocene epoch: hot climates ---compiled by Huber (2008) Blue:  18 O Green: Mg/Ca Red: TEX 86

20. Eocene epoch: hot climates Collaboration with Matt Huber (Purdue), who ran CCSM with very high levels of CO 2. CCSM’s climate sensitivity to doubling CO 2 is ~2-2.5 K, slightly lower than that of other modeling centers. Runs with present-day geography and parameters were completed in parallel with others using Eocene continental configurations and pre-industrial trace gas settings. CO 2 levels ranged from 355 ppm to 8960 ppm (32 times larger than pre-industrial levels).

21. Annual mean surface temperatures (355 ppm)

22. Annual mean surface temperatures (2240 ppm)

23. Annual mean surface temperatures (8960 ppm)

24. Storm season potential intensity (355 ppm) Latitude m/s

25. Storm season potential intensity (2240 ppm) Latitude m/s

26. Changes in potential intensity (2240 ppm) Latitude m/s

27. Storm season potential intensity (8960 ppm) Latitude m/s

28. Changes in potential intensity (8960 ppm) Latitude m/s

29. Present climateWeak temperature gradient Thermal stratification in CAM simulations

30. Air mass classifications from P* Convection can be driven by symmetrically unstable slantwise displacements of moist air if  e * decreases upward along slanted isosurfaces of M. Unlike conventional p.v., P* is not conserved, but it is ideally suited to identify regions with constant values of  e * (s*) along isosurfaces of absolute angular momentum, M. Because the absolute vorticity vector points parallel to isosurfaces of constant M, P* will be zero wherever  e * is constant along M surfaces.

31. Fraction of convectively neutral days at 700 mb Latitude August (355 ppm)

32. Fraction of convectively neutral days at 700 mb Latitude August (2240 ppm)

33. Fraction of convectively neutral days at 700 mb Latitude August (8960 ppm)

34. Summary During the mid Holocene, potential intensities in both hemispheres change inversely with the top of atmosphere (TOA) solar radiation perturbation. Tropical SST differ little between today and the mid Holocene, but entropy anomalies over land and everywhere aloft follow the sign of the TOA deviation. The combination yields a change in the thermodynamic “speed limit” that is opposite to the change in local solar radiation. Saturation entropy deficits, a limiting factor in these models’ storm counts, drop with the colder temperatures at LGM.

35. This work was advanced by collaborations with: Suzana Camargo, Columbia Stephen Cathey, Texas A&M Kerry Emanuel, MIT Joe Galewsky, University of New Mexico Matt Huber, Purdue Bette Otto-Bliesner, NCAR