1. TEAM TERMINATOR Brian Novak Danny Ohrn Michael Cleaver Emily Ramage

2. TEAM TERMINATOR Strength Power Frequency Duration

3. Al Gore says WHAT??????

4. However, the actual hurricane data tells a different story… Hurricane Intensity as a Function of Maximum Wind Velocity

5. Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 203.394 Chance Probability0.0055

6. Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 3.4198 Critical Value for p=0.01 32.00 Chance Probability 0.9997

7. Slopes of Expected Value Regressions 1851-1899-0.0722 Knots/Year 1900-1949 0.707 Knots/Year 1950-2006-0.219 Knots/Year

8. Hurricane Intensity as a Function of Minimum Central Pressure

9. Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 25.8697 Chance Probability1.000

10. Chi-Squared Sum Statistic0.48922 Critical Value for p=0.0132.00 Chance Probability0.9999

11. Slopes of Expected Value Regressions 1851-18990.1754 Millibars/Year 1900-1949 0.352 Millibars/Year 1950-20060.1513 Millibars/Year

12. Slopes of Expected Value Regressions 1851-18990.1754 Millibars/Year 1900-1949 0.352 Millibars/Year 1950-20060.1513 Millibars/Year

13. Measure Landfall: A Measure of a Storm’s Power

14. Hurricane Formation The Three Requirements for Hurricane FormationThe Three Requirements for Hurricane Formation Over Land, Hurricanes DieOver Land, Hurricanes Die

16. Our Data The Percentage of Measurable Storms that Reached Land The Number of Days on Land Per Land- bound Storm

20. Standard Deviation was 0.20 daysStandard Deviation was 0.20 days A Chi 2 Test Determined X 2 = 0.24 with 14 degrees of freedomA Chi 2 Test Determined X 2 = 0.24 with 14 degrees of freedom Critical Value = 10.83, The null hypothesis cannot be rejected!

21. Landfall Conclusions There is no linear correlation between time and percentage of storms that reach land The average number of days on land per land-bound storm

22. Frequency of Damage Insurance Industry takes notice -Al Gore Swiss re sigma report More People in Hazard areas -IWTC report

23. Frequency of Hurricanes Chi squared value.125254642

24. Major Hurricanes Absolute #’s increasing Chi squared Value.738022

25. Category 4&5’s have doubled in the Last Year 1 -Al Gore Chi Squared Value 3.449001

26. Frequency Increase in destructiveness not correlated Frequency of major hurricanes is increasing Shows some correlation to temperature Al’s short term scare

27. Duration Categories: 1)Season Duration 2)Storm All Storms In Hurricane Status Longest Yearly Storm

28. 10 Year Average Season Duration 1851- 2006 Chi-squared: 35.94 Critical value, 16 df, p = 0.001: 39.25

29. Average Storm Duration vs. Temperature Deviation 1900-2006 Chi squared: 191 Critical Value, 11 df, p = 0.001: 31.26

30. Average Storm Duration as Hurricane vs. Temperature Variation 1900-2006

31. Longest Yearly Storm vs. Temperature Deviation 1900-2006

32. Duration Conclusions Season duration shows a positive correlation over time. Data does not support a relationship between storm duration and global temperature increase since 1900.

33. CONCLUSIONS Data does not consistently support a pattern of increased frequency and strength of hurricanes over time. Linear relationships remain linear despite increasing temperature trends. Discrepancies in measurement techniques? Intricate dynamics of hurricane formation? Single variable data modeling techniques?

34. References Raw hurricane data from Greg Bothun’s link on Blackboard.uoregon.edu Atlantic Tropical Storm Tracking by Year http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/ 1 Lovgren, Stefan. "Al Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" Movie: Fact or Hype?.” National Geographic News. May 25, 2006. National Geographic. 24 Apr 2007. IWTC Statement "Global Warming and Hurricanes." Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Dec. 7, 2007. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 24 Apr 2007.