1. The effects of major toll-road financed investments in private and public transport infrastructure on public transport – the “Oslo package” Thredbo conference 5-9 September 2005 in Lisbon Nils Fearnley, Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo, Norway

2. Oslo package 1 background “Queue, congestion, chaos” Need to speed up investments Toll road from 1990 20 % to public transport infrastructure

3. Road investments: Ring road East-west tunnel Tunnels to north-east Improved main road standard and speeds Public transport investments: Fully connected metro Metro + tram line extensions Bus lanes, interchanges

4. Modal share 1 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 199019921994199619982000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 Total modal share P.t. modal share morning rush Peak hour passengers

5. Modal share 2

6. Modal share (3) Small immediate car traffic reduction due to the toll ring (3-5%) Low growth in car traffic in spite of strong increase in drivers of mobility (jobs, income, population)

7. Moda share (4) sustained patronage growth

8. Public transport Positive deviation from modelled demand late 1990s Growth attributable to quality improvements: – connected metro – bus lanes – terminals – tram and metro extensions 280 300 320 340 198619891992199519982001 ModelledObserved

9. Operating cost Bus lanes  cost reduction Metro investments  cost increase

10. Concluding remarks 20 percent to p.t.: huge improvements Modest growth in car traffic Improved operating speed, but more so for car Cost reductions (bus) and increase (tram, metro) Patronage growth due to quality improvements Future: – “Oslo package 2” launched 2001: Public transport package → Infrastructure and rolling stock – Oslo Package 3? → Road pricing + operating subsidies?