1. Solving the Climate and Energy Problem Stephen W. Pacala Petrie Chair in Ecology Director, Princeton Environmental Institute April 2006

2. Surface Air Warming (°F) 2xCO 2 Climate 4xCO 2 Climate GFDL Model

3. Evidence of Global Warming Definitive For Uncertain Definitive Against * * * * Climate change in the past Theory and models Current records *

4. Monsters Behind the Door Ocean Circulation Hurricanes Sahel Drought Ice Sheets

5. Instability of Ocean Circulation Manabe and Stouffer

6. Increasing Hurricane Intensity Source: Knutson and Tuleya 2004, Journal of Climate 17, 3477-3495

7. Drought in the Sahel (Held et al. 2006)

8. Ice Sheet Instability (Oppenheimer et al. 2004)

9. $100/tC Form of EnergyEquivalent to $100/tC Natural gas$1.50/1000 scf Crude oil$12/barrel Coal$65/U.S. ton Gasoline25¢/gallon (ethanol subsidy: 50¢/gallon) Electricity from coal2.2¢/kWh (wind and nuclear subsidies: 1.8 ¢/kWh) Electricity from natural gas1.0¢/kWh Today’s US energy system~ $150 billion/year (~1% of GDP) Carbon emission charges in the neighborhood of $100/tC can enable most available alternatives. (PV is an exception.) $100/tC is approximately the October 2005 EU trading price. Source: Robert Socolow

10. Three interdependent problems lead to the conclusion that it is time to replace our energy system…  The Oil Problem (OP)  The Air Pollution Problem (APP)  The Climate Problem (CP)

11. 1947-48Postwar dislocations 1952-53Iranian nationalization, strikes 1956-57Suez Crisis 1969strikes 1973-74OAPEC embargo 1978-79Iranian revolution 1980-81Iran-Iraq War 1990Persian Gulf War 2000East Asian Economic Growth Source: James D. Hamilton

12. Economic Benefits of Reduced Volatility ~ 1% of GDP or ~ 100 Billion Dollars/Y Source: Richard Tol

13. Costs of Iraq, Afghanistan and Enhanced Security in Billions of US Dollars (4 Years) Iraq 309 Afganistan 99 Enhanced Security 24 Other 45 Total 477 Time Frame FY 2002-2005 Source Congressional Research Service Report Steve Kosiak

14. Incremental Costs Since 9/11 Grand Total, Iraq DoD costs: $585 billion Non-DoD assistance: $24 billion VA costs: $77-179 billion Brain injuries: $14-35 billion Interest: $98-386 billion Total: $798-1,209 billion Stiglitz –Direct costs: $839-1,189 billion –Macroeconomic: $187-1,050 billion –Total: $1,026-2,239 billion Source: Steve Kosiak Center for Strategic and Budgetary Analysis

15. E stimated D eaths P er Y ear from A ir P ollution US – 130,000 W orld – >3,000,000 Source: The Skeptical Environmentalist pp. 168, 182 @ $2.5 million per life, US cost is $ 330 billion/y

16. Three interdependent problems lead to the conclusion that it is time to replace our energy system… Do we have the technological know-how to construct an energy system that would solve all three problems?  The Oil Problem (OP)  The Air Pollution Problem (APP)  The Climate Problem (CP)

17. Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton, 2001-2010 Carbon Capture Carbon Science Carbon Storage Carbon Policy $21,150,000 funding from BP and Ford.

18. Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies Stephen W. Pacala and Robert Socolow Science Vol. 305 968-972 August 13, 2004

19. 20562006 14 7 Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 1956 0 Historical emissions 1.9  2106 Past Emissions

20. 20562006 14 7 1956 0 1.9  2106 The Stabilization Triangle O Interim Goal Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year Currently projected path = “ramp” Historical emissions Flat path Stabilization Triangle

21. (380) (850) The Stabilization Triangle: Beat doubling or accept tripling (details) Values in parentheses are ppm. Note the identity (a fact about the size of the Earth’s atmosphere): 1 ppm = 2.1 GtC. 14 7 21 1956205621062006  850 ppm  500 ppm Ramp = Delay Flat = Act Now 1.9 (320) (470) (530) (750) (500) (850) Business As Usual 2156 2206 GtC/yr Historical emissions Stabilization triangle

22. The Demography of Capital Policy priority: Deter investments in new long-lived high-carbon stock: not only new power plants, but also new buildings. 2003-2030 power-plant lifetime CO 2 commitments WEO-2004 Reference Scenario. Lifetime in years: coal 60, gas 40, oil 20. Historic emissions, all uses Credit for comparison: David Hawkins, NRDC

23. 20562006 14 7 Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 1956 0 Currently projected path Flat path Historical emissions 1.9  2106 14 GtC/y 7 GtC/y Seven “wedges” Wedges O

24. What is a “Wedge”? A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere. 1 GtC/yr 50 years Total = 25 Gigatons carbon Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC. A “solution” to the CO 2 problem should provide at least one wedge.

25. Filling the Triangle With Technologies Already in the Marketplace at Industrial Scale

26. Revolutionary Technology: Fusion

27. Revolutionary Technology: Artificial Photosynthesis

28. Wedges EFFICIENCY Buildings, ground transport, industrial processing, lighting, electric power plants. DECARBONIZED ELECTRICITY Natural gas for coal Power from coal or gas with CCS Nuclear power Power from renewables: wind, photovoltaics, hydropower, geothermal. DECARBONIZED FUELS Synthetic fuel from coal or natural gas, with carbon capture and storage Biofuels Hydrogen –from coal and natural gas, with carbon capture and storage –from nuclear energy –from renewable energy (hydro, wind, PV, etc.) FUEL DISPLACEMENT BY LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY Grid-charged batteries for transport Heat pumps for furnaces and boilers NATURAL SINKS Forestry (reduced deforestation, afforestation, new plantations) Agricultural soils OP,APP,CP CP

29. Efficiency and Conservation transportbuildings industry power lifestyle Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: 2 billion cars at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.

30. Photos courtesy of Ford, WMATA, Washington State Ridesharing Organization Efficiency in transport Effort needed for 1 wedge: 2 billion gasoline and diesel cars (10,000 miles/car-yr) at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg 500 million cars now. Cost = negative to $2000 - $3000 per car (hybrid Prius). Fuel savings ~150 gallons per year = emissions savings of ~0.5 tC/yr =carbon cost > $2/gal !

31. Electricity Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: 700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing coal power. Nuclear Graphic courtesy of NRC Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for another half wedge.

32. Power with Carbon Capture and Storage Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: Carbon capture and storage at 800 GW coal power plants.

33. Carbon Storage Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: 3500 In Salahs or Sleipners @1 MtCO 2 /yr 100 x U.S. CO 2 injection rate for EOR A flow of CO 2 into the Earth equal to the flow of oil out of the Earth today Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins Sleipner project, offshore Norway

34. King Coal Liquid Fuels Hydrogen Cars Geologic Storage Hydrogen Electricity IGCC C CO + H 2 O Partial Combustion CO, H 2, CO 2 H 2 O, Shift Reaction Best CO/H Ratio For Liquid Fuels Complete the Shift Reaction H2H2, CO 2 Turbine Syngas Reactor Turbine APP OP OP,APP OP,APP CP

35. New Builds by BP DF-2 announced February 2006. Coke to hydrogen to >500 Megawatts electricity. ~ One million tons per year of CO 2 to spent Californian oil reservoirs. DF-1 announced June 2006. Natural gas to hydrogen to 350 Megawatts of electricity. ~One million tons per year of CO 2 to a spent oil reservoir in the North Sea. En Salah. One million tons per year CO 2 sequestration project.

36. FutureGen, DF-1, DF-2 FutureGenDF-1DF-2 U.S.U.K.U.S. CoalNatural gasPetcoke 275 MW350 MW500 MW When?20092011 $1 billion (80% fed)$600 million (BP)$1000 million (BP) R&D mission?Must work.Must work

37. The Future Fossil Fuel Power Plant Shown here: After 10 years of operation of a 1000 MW coal plant, 60 Mt (90 Mm 3 ) of CO 2 have been injected, filling a horizontal area of 40 km 2 in each of two formations. Assumptions: 10% porosity 1/3 of pore space accessed 60 m total vertical height for the two formations. Note: Plant is still young.

38. CO 2 Injection and Leakage Pathways Flow Dynamics Well-leakage dynamics Numerical Simulations Analytical Solutions Spatial Locations Well Properties Cement Degradation Shallow-zone Effects Unsaturated Soils Groundwater Resources Carbon Storage

39. Teapot Dome, Wyoming

40. Wind Electricity Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: One million 2-MW windmills displacing coal power. Today: 40,000 MW (2%) Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany (Danish Wind Industry Association)

41. Wind Hydrogen Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany (Danish Wind Industry Association) Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: H 2 instead of gasoline or diesel in 2 billion 60 mpg vehicles Two million 2 MW windmills Twice as many windmills as for a wedge of wind electricity Today: 40,000 MW (1%) Assumes the H 2 fuels 100-mpg cars

42. Solar Electricity Effort needed for 1 wedge: Install 40 GW peak each year 2 GWpeak in place today, rate of production growing at 20%/yr (slice requires 50 years at 15%). 2 million hectares dedicated use by 2054 = 2 m 2 per person. Graphics courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program Cost = expensive (2X- 40X other electricity but declining at 10% per year).

43. BiofuelsBiofuels Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: Two billion 60 mpg cars running on biofuels 250 million hectares of high-yield crops (one sixth of world cropland) Usina Santa Elisa mill in Sertaozinho, Brazil (http://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/searchpix.cgi?getrec=5691971&display_type=verbose&search_reverse=1_

44. Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: Elimination of tropical deforestation and Rehabilitation of 400 million hectares (Mha) temperate or 300 Mha tropical forest Natural Stocks Photo: SUNY Stonybrook Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: Conservation tillage on all cropland Forests Soils Photo: Brazil: Planting with a jab planter. FAO

45. Wedges EFFICIENCY Buildings, ground transport, industrial processing, lighting, electric power plants. DECARBONIZED ELECTRICITY Natural gas for coal Power from coal or gas with carbon capture and storage Nuclear power Power from renewables: wind, photovoltaics, hydropower, geothermal. DECARBONIZED FUELS Synthetic fuel from coal or natural gas, with carbon capture and storage Biofuels Hydrogen –from coal and natural gas, with carbon capture and storage –from nuclear energy –from renewable energy (hydro, wind, PV, etc.) FUEL DISPLACEMENT BY LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY Grid-charged batteries for transport Heat pumps for furnaces and boilers NATURAL SINKS Forestry (reduced deforestation, afforestation, new plantations) Agricultural soils OP,APP,CP CP

46. Three Interdependent Problems  The Oil Problem (OP) ~ $100 billion /y for Iraq and ~$100 billion /y for oil price shocks  The Air Pollution Problem (APP) ~ $100 billion /y for air pollution  The Climate Problem (CP) ~ $100 billion/y to solve the problem

47. Conclusions What is needed is a national policy designed to solve the oil problem, the air pollution problem, and the climate problem. We already possess cost-effective technologies for the next fifty years, if costs are seen in the context of what we are already paying. The solution will only get cheaper, as investment elicits industrial R&D and new innovation.