1. Fatality Modeling and the PEER Testbeds Shoaf and Seligson Casualty Project Kickoff UCLA CPHD 27 January 2003 Keith Porter, California Institute of Technology

2. 2 Casualty Modeling in PEER Brief history of seismic design PEER PBEE methodology PEER decision variables PEER testbeds PEER fatality modeling requirements

3. 3 2-minute History of Seismic Design Before 1924, no code for seismic design 1920s: allowable stress design (ASD) [ Resistance/Demand  factor of safety ]  OK 1980s: load and resistance factor design (LRFD) [  R   D ]  [ P f  acceptable P f ]  OK 1990s+: performance-based engineering (PBE) [ Performance ≥ Demands ]  OK

4. 4 PEER PBEE

5. 5 PEER Decision Variables Dollars Deaths Downtime

6. 6 PEER Testbeds Ages, systems, damage measures, stakeholders & decision variables

7. 7 Requirements of the Fatality Model p[D deaths | DM, &] DM: damage measures – which ones? &: what else matters? –Structural system –Occupancy numbers, patterns, demographics –Search and rescue resources –… Illustrate for Van Nuys