1. Crisis Management in Organizations Session 1 Agenda 1.Overview syllabus, course structure, & requirements 2.Course resources 3.Types of crises 4.Risk audit 5.Systems mapping of crises 6.Team formation & discussion Wei-ji “dangerous opportunity”

2. What is a crisis? How would you know your organization is in a crisis? Experiences?

3. …and give example of each crisis emergency catastrophe problem disaster risk How would you sequence the following : Low High Scope Severity Duration crisis emergency catastrophe problemdisaster risk

4. SWOT* (or TOWS) Analysis * Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats The SWOT diagram often used in strategic planning can be used to identify crisis vulnerabilities

5. Mitroff, I. I. (2004). Think like a sociopath, act like a saint. Journal of Business Strategy, 25(5), 42-53. Risk Categorization

6. http://crisisconsultant.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2012-Crisis-Report_FINAL.pdf

10. Estimation of Severity or Impact

11. http://www.riskscorecard.net/article/2-scoring-your-risk-categories/ Estimation of Likelihood or Probability

17. http://www.rmacleanllc.com/publications/em-competitive-strategy/Risk_Management_MacLean_EM_Jan-Feb_2010.pdf Black Swan Events– Low Probability/High Impact 1.We can’t manage risks by predicting extreme events 2.Past events don’t help predict unlikely future events 3.We don’t listen to advice about what we shouldn’t do to avoid risks 4.Extreme event risk can’t be measured by standard deviation 5.Mathematical probability is not equivalent to psychological probability 6.Our values of efficiency, debt leverage, overspecialization and maximizing shareholder value don’t tolerate protective redundancy

18. 40 Years of Black Swans

19. Kryptonite’s Perfect Blogstorm In September 2004 Kryptonite Locks was confronted with the news that a simple Bic pen could unlock their bike locks. Demonstration videos went viral. Their unsatisfactory response to this Black Swan event lingered after 10 months at a cost of $10m. For their slow reaction they were awarded Business 2.0 Magazine’s Dumbest Business Moment of the Year Award. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LahDQ2ZQ3e0

20. : How a confluence of factors create a crisis

21. Your team’s task: 1.Briefly discuss range of work settings/industries in your team and select one industry and setting for risk assessment 2.Brainstorm a variety of crises for the industry (at least 10) 3.Discuss the definitions for likelihood and impact, then rate your identified risks 4.Locate each on Risk Grid 5.Present your grid and reasoning to class

22. Discussion How feasible would it be to conduct a risk assessment with your organization? What would work and against such an audit? Where would you get information to help establish estimates for likelihood and severity?

23. END