1. Election Forecasting Travis N. Ridout Washington State University

3. Explaining midterm decline Referendum voting Surge and decline

4. End of History? History may no longer be a good guide Why? –Few marginal incumbents –Few retirements nowadays

5. The playing field House of Representatives - 232 Republicans, 202 Democrats, 1 ind. Senate - 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 1 ind.

6. Predictors of election outcomes Exposure Presidential popularity

8. Predictors of election outcomes Exposure Presidential popularity State of the economy

10. Predictors of election outcomes Exposure Presidential popularity State of the economy Recruitment Redistricting Presidential coattails National mood

12. Why ’06 like ’94 One-party control Unpopular president Ethics problems Unpopular issue Disbelief in losing

13. Why ’06 unlike ’94 Prepared incumbents Fewer retirements/freshmen Nervous/cynical electorate Engaged White House Redistricting

14. Idaho-1 Latest independent poll - Sali (R): 49 percent - Grant (D): 43 percent Republican party has entered this race

15. Washington-5 Cathy McMorris (R): 45 percent Peter Goldmark (D): 38 percent Democratic Party just entered race