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Real Time High-Resolution NWP @ McGill University J. Gyakum 1, R. McTaggart- Cowan 1, P. Sisson 2 1 McGill University 2 National Weather Service
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Objectives Implementation of a real time MC2 system Data collection for stat- istical analysis and case studies Investigate impacts of high- resolution modelling on QPF and near-surface winds
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Outline Need for mesoscale modelling Description of NWP system Validation case study (1 May 2002) Projected completion timeline
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High Resolution (3km) Accurate topography Improved wind fields and fluxes Model terrain- induced confluence
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Mesoscale Orography High resolution (6 km) Degraded resolution (~100 km)
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Model Description MC2 version 4.9.3 Non-hydrostatic, semi- implicit time step, semi- Lagrangian advection Full physics version 3.72 Three one-way nest domains
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Nesting Strategy 36km 12 km 3 km
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Computational Platform NEC SX-5 supercomputer maintained by RPN/CMC 2x16 PE nodes 8G memory per PE (128 G/node) Theoretical peak performance 128 GFlop
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Performance Timeline 0000 UTC0300 UTC0600 UTC0900 UTC CMC Regional Forecast McGill Real Time Mesoscale Cascade Domain 1 (36km) Domain 2 (12km) Domain 3 (3km) All runs completed by 0500 Eastern Standard Time
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Production Suite SynopticMesoscale Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales
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Production Suite Synoptic Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics dynamic tropopause potential temperature
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Production Suite Synoptic Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics isentropic potential vorticity dynamic tropopause
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Production Suite Synoptic Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics coupling index dt - e(bl) dynamic tropopause isentropic potential vorticity
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Production Suite Synoptic Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics moisture transport dynamic tropopause isentropic potential vorticity coupling index
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Production Suite Synoptic Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics moisture flux divergence dynamic tropopause isentropic potential vorticity coupling index moisture transport
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Production Suite Synoptic Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics Non-standard synoptic output available on 36 and 12 km domains (1 & 2) dynamic tropopause isentropic potential vorticity coupling index moisture transport moisture flux divergence
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Production Suite Mesoscale Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales frontogenesis function and terms
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Production Suite Mesoscale Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales high-resolution convective and explicit precip- itation frontogenesis function
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Production Suite Mesoscale Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales high resolution vertical motion fields frontogenesis function high resolution precipitation
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Production Suite Mesoscale Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales cross-sectional plots of various thermodynamic variables frontogenesis function high resolution precipitation high resolution vertical motion
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Production Suite Mesoscale Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales cross-sectional plots of frontal circulations frontogenesis function high resolution precipitation high resolution vertical motion thermodynamic cross-sections
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Production Suite Mesoscale Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales Mesoscale visualization tools available on 12 and 3 km domains (2 & 3) frontogenesis function high resolution precipitation high resolution vertical motion thermodynamic cross-sections frontal circulations
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Case Study (2 May) GOES-East Water vapour 0000UTC 2 May
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Precipitation Structure Radar ObservationsModel Rain Rate 0900 UTC 2 May 2002 (initialized 0000 1 May) Domain 2 (12 km)
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Precipitation Structure Radar ObservationsModel Rain Rate 1200 UTC 2 May 2002 (initialized 0000 1 May) Domain 2 (12 km)
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Project Timeline MarchJuneSeptemberDecember 20022003 model implementation McGill-side storage structure analysis tool construction visualization design web interface construction real time modelling completed in progress planned
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Case Study (27 Sept) GOES-East Water vapour (0000 UTC 27 Sept)
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Precipitation Domain 1 (36km) total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept
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Precipitation Observed total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept
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Precipitation Domain 2 (12km) total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept
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Precipitation Domain 3 (3km) total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept
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Precipitation Domain 3 (3km) total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept
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500mb Height/Vorticity
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325K Potential Vorticity
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Dynamic Tropopause Potential Temperature McGill 24h forecastRUC analysis 00Z 28
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Dynamic Tropopause Windspeed / Wind Vectors McGill 24h forecastRUC analysis 00Z 28
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Project Timeline MarchJuneSeptemberDecember 20022003 model implementation McGill-side storage structure analysis tool construction visualization design web interface construction real time modelling completed in progress planned
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Summary Implementation of real time mesoscale NWP is under way at McGill High resolution (3 km) will enhance mesoscale flow and QPF forecasts for the St. Lawrence / NE states region
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Data Access http://132.206.43.151:5080 Grib files available to ftp servers upon request to: rmctc@zephyr.meteo.mcgill.ca
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