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Progress in Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Operational Implementations at NOAA and Navy Isaac Ginis Morris Bender, Tetsu Hara,

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Presentation on theme: "Progress in Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Operational Implementations at NOAA and Navy Isaac Ginis Morris Bender, Tetsu Hara,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Progress in Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Operational Implementations at NOAA and Navy Isaac Ginis Morris Bender, Tetsu Hara, Richard Yablonsky, Biju Thomas, Yalin Fan, Jian-Wen Bao, Chris Fairall, Laura Bianco University of Rhode Island, NOAA/GFDL, NOAA/ESRL Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Savannah, GA March 1-4, 2010

2 2 Operational Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Ocean Models 2001 – GFDL/POM at NCEP in Atlantic ocean (3D coupling).2001 – GFDL/POM at NCEP in Atlantic ocean (3D coupling). 2004 – GFDL/POM at NCEP in Eastern and Central Pacific (1 D coupling).2004 – GFDL/POM at NCEP in Eastern and Central Pacific (1 D coupling). 2007 – HWRF/POM at NCEP in Atlantic ocean (3D coupling).2007 – HWRF/POM at NCEP in Atlantic ocean (3D coupling). 2008 – GFDN/POM at FNMOC in Atlantic ocean (3D coupling) and all other oceans(1D coupling)2008 – GFDN/POM at FNMOC in Atlantic ocean (3D coupling) and all other oceans(1D coupling) 2009 – GFDN/POM at FNMOC in the Northern Pacific ocean (3D coupling).2009 – GFDN/POM at FNMOC in the Northern Pacific ocean (3D coupling).

3 Atmospheric Model Ocean Model Air-Sea Interface Momentum flux (τ) Sensible heat flux (Q H ) Latent heat flux (Q E ) Momentum flux (τ) Wind speed (U a ) Temperature (T a ) Humidity (q a ) Surface current (U s ) SST (T s ) Conventional Coupling Between Tropical Cyclone and Ocean Models Conventional Coupling Between Tropical Cyclone and Ocean Models

4 Atmospheric Boundary Layer Wave Boundary (Surface) Layer Momentum & KE Flux TurbulenceSea Sprays BubblesMomentum & KE Flux Gas Flux Nonbreaking WavesBreaking Waves Wave induced stress  Reynolds stress  (Langmuir) Turbulence Air-Sea Interface Heat & Humidity Flux Airflow separation Intermittency Intermittency of Momentum & KE injection Stokes drift Ocean Boundary Layer

5 5 New Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Ocean Framework ( being implemented into HWRF and GFDN models) TC model: air-sea heat and momentum fluxes and sea spray source functions explicitly include SST, sea-state dependence and ocean current effects. Wave model: is forced by sea-state dependent momentum flux and includes ocean current effects. Ocean model: is forced by sea-state dependent momentum fluxes.

6 Fan, Ginis, Hara & Walsh J. Phys. Oceanogr. (2009) Hurricane Ivan (2004) Envisat-1 ERS - 2 Effect of Wind-Wave-Current Interaction on Hurricane-Generated Waves

7 21 UTC Sept. 14 2:40 UTC Sept. 15 Model Temp 70 m Sept. 12 Satellite altimetry Sept.12 Impact of Loop Current and Warm Core Eddy on Hurricane-Generated Surface Waves

8 21:00 UTC Sept.14 2:40 UTC Sept. 15 WW3 significant wave height difference with and without LC/WCE Significant wave height (H s ) along flight track LC WCE (m) Impact of Loop Current and Warm Core Eddy on Hurricane-Generated Surface Waves LCWCE

9 Significant wave height Ocean current difference with and without LC/WCE 21:00 UTC Sept.14 2:40 UTC Sept.15 Dominant wave direction Impact of Loop Current and Warm Core Eddy on Hurricane-Generated Surface Waves

10 GFDN is run at FNMOC of NOGAPS global model. Ocean model is initialized from Navy’s NCODA analysis Model physics changes implemented in GFDN in 2008 compared to NOAA’s GFDL model: - Penetrative solar radiation included in ocean model -Bug fixed in C h calculations and coupling interpolation 10 Navy’s Operational GFDN Model

11 Atmospheric grid resolutions Princeton Ocean Model grid resolutions 11 Development of High-Resolution GFDN Operational GFDN: Mesh 1: 75 o x75 o – 1/2 o res Mesh 2: 11 o x11 o – 1/6 o res Mesh 3: 5 o x5 o – 1/12 o res High-Resolution GFDN Mesh 1: 75 o x75 o – 1/2 o res Mesh 2: 11 o x11 o – 1/6 o res Mesh 3: 5 o x5 o – 1/18 o res Operational GFDN: 1/6 o High-Resolution GFDN: 1/12 o

12 Wind Speed Cross-Section (72h) Katrina: August 25 th, 0z forecast Improved Structure with Higher Resolution 1/12th Degree Resolution 1/18 th Degree Resolution

13 Surface Winds (72 hr) Katrina: August 25 th, 0z forecast Improved Structure with Higher Resolution 1/12th Degree Resolution 1/18 th Degree Resolution

14 Accumulated precipitation (47-48 hr) Katrina: August 25 th, 0z forecast Improved Structure with Higher Resolution 1/12th Degree Resolution 1/18 th Degree Resolution

15 266 forecasts in 2009 were rerun in the Western Pacific using the GFS global model for initial and boundary conditions. No changes were made in the ocean model initialization. 15 Effect of Global Model on GFDN Forecasts in Western Pacific

16 Average Track Errors NORMALIZED ERRORS RELATVIE TO CLIPPER 48 hr72 hr96 hr

17 GFDN from NOGAPS (black) GFDN from GFS (red) 72 HOUR Track Errors for Each Storm

18 Typhoon Nida (25W) 20 N 10N 130E140E 1 GFDN 2 NOGAPS 3 GFS 4 GFDN FROM GFS Nov. 24 th, 18z 30 N 20N Nov. 25 th, 12z 140E150E 1 GFDN 2 NOGAPS 3 GFS 4 GFDN FROM GFS 1 GFDN 2 NOGAPS 3 GFS 4 GFDN FROM GFS Nov. 26 th, 00zNov. 26 th, 12z 20 N 30 N 20 N 1 GFDN 2 NOGAPS 3 GFS 4 GFDN FROM GFS

19 NORMALIZED ERRORS RELATIVE TO ST5D Average Intensity Error

20 72 HOUR Intensity Errors for Each Storm GFDN from NOGAPS (black) GFDN from GFS (red)

21 Increased horizontal resolution in GFDN model improves horizontal and vertical structures in simulated tropical cyclones. Initial test results suggest that some model physics may need to be retuned for better performance. Experimental GFDN runs using GFS global model in the Western Pacific show improved forecasts skill for both track and intensity compared to the operational GFDN model Coupling with the WAVEWATCH wave model and introducing sea spray effects is in progress. 21 ConclusionsConclusions

22 Track Errors in GFDN and GFS for Each Storm 72 HOUR TRACK ERROR 120 HOUR TRACK ERROR GFS (black) GFDN from GFS (red)

23 Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) 1 GFDN 2 NOGAPS 3 GFS 4 GFDN FROM GFS Sep. 12 th, 12z Sep. 12 th, 18z 1 GFDN 2 NOGAPS 3 GFS 4 GFDN FROM GFS Sep. 13 th, 6zSep. 13 th, 18z 20 N 140 E150 E 20 N 30 N 20 N 150 E140 E150 E140 E 150 E140 E 1 GFDN 2 NOGAPS 3 GFS 4 GFDN FROM GFS

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