1. The International Response to HIV/AIDS Josh Busby jbusby@princeton.edu http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/politicshiv/ Princeton University Center for Globalization and Governance Map: WHO 2003

2. 2 Scope of the Talk  What is the need?  What has been the response?  How effective has it been?

3. 3 Propositions  The global response is inadequate.  The Bush Administration has done more for HIV/AIDS than others.  Scaling up is an issue.

4. 4 The Need 25 million have already died from AIDS 40.3mn were living with AIDS in 2005 Nearly 5mn new infections in 2005, 3.2mn in sub-Saharan Africa India had 5.1mn infections at end 2004 China faces 10 million infections by 2010 Source: WHO 2005, Congressional Research Service

5. 5 Financing Gap Source: UNAIDS 2005 12.3 14.9 18.1

6. 6 Bush and HIV/AIDS Actually, today I had to defend the Bush Administration in France again. They refuse to accept, because of their political ideology, that he has actually done more than any American President for Africa. But it's empirically so. - Bob Geldof, June 27, 2005 Source: Time magazine

7. 7 G-7 Shares and the Global Fund PledgesNominal Contributions % of Pledges 2001- 2008 % of Contributions 2001-2005 % of World GDP 2004 2004 GDP (current prices $US bn) Canada$423,937,480$210,267,7964.94%4.45% 2.43% $993.442 EC$630,353,299$521,394,4617.34%11.04% 31.46% $12,865.602 France$1,121,415,920$485,822,70013.06%10.29% 5.0% $2,046.292 Germany$396,869,318$198,322,1034.62%4.20% 6.74% $2,754.727 Italy$756,819,051$432,996,2738.82%9.17% 4.11% $1,680.112 Japan$859,993,443$346,520,01310.02%7.34% 11.42% $4,871.198 United Kingdom $623,629,467$267,934,2587.26%5.67% 5.22% $2,133.019 United States $2,295,606,279$1,433,617,52926.74%30.36% $11,734.3 Grand Total 8,584,382,220$4,721,894,421$40,894.78 Source: Global Fund 2005, IMF

8. 8 G-7 Shares and the Global Fund PledgesNominal Contributions % of Pledges 2001- 2008 % of Contributions 2001-2005 % of World GDP 2004 2004 GDP (current prices $US bn) Canada$423,937,480$210,267,7964.94% 4.45%2.43% $993.442 EC$630,353,299$521,394,4617.34% 11.04%31.46% $12,865.602 France$1,121,415,920$485,822,70013.06% 10.29%5.0% $2,046.292 Germany$396,869,318$198,322,1034.62% 4.20%6.74% $2,754.727 Italy$756,819,051$432,996,2738.82% 9.17%4.11% $1,680.112 Japan$859,993,443$346,520,01310.02% 7.34%11.42% $4,871.198 United Kingdom $623,629,467$267,934,2587.26% 5.67%5.22% $2,133.019 United States $2,295,606,279$1,433,617,52926.74% 30.36%28.69% $11,734.3 Grand Total 8,584,382,220$4,721,894,421$40,894.78 Source: Global Fund 2005, IMF

9. 9 Bilateral/Global Contributions 2004 Source: Jennifer Kates 2005

10. 10 Source: Jennifer Kates 2005 Bilateral/Global Contributions 2004

11. 11 2004 DAC commitments Source: Kates 2005

12. 12 2004 DAC Contributions and GDP % of Total HIV Contributions 2004 % of World GDP 2004 Canada5.3%2.43% EC7.7%31.46% France3.9%5.0% Germany3.5%6.74% Italy0.4%*4.11% Japan4.1%11.42% United Kingdom16.6%5.22% United States45.2%28.69% Source: Kates, IMF

13. 13 % of Total HIV Contributions 2004 % of World GDP 2004 Canada5.3%2.43% EC7.7%31.46% France3.9%5.0% Germany3.5%6.74% Italy0.4%*4.11% Japan4.1%11.42% United Kingdom16.6%5.22% United States45.2%28.69% Source: Kates, IMF 2004 DAC Contributions and GDP

14. 14 Bush and HIV/AIDS  PEPFAR  $15bn over 5 years promised in 2003  $1.656bn appropriated 2003  $2.327bn appropriated 2004  $2.84bn appropriated 2005  Bush request $3.2bn for 2006  Senate $3.6bn for 2006 Source: Congressional Research Service, DATA

15. 15 Source: Kates, Summers 2004

16. 16 Treatment Goals 1mn on ARV’s worldwide in June 2005 Goal for June was 1.6mn Target 3mn by end of 2005 3 X 5 NOT LIKELY TO REACH Source: WHO 3 by 5 Progress Report

17. 17 Scaling Up The Global Fund needs $3.3bn to cover renewal in 2006-2007 $3.7bn to fund new grants  Sept 2005 Donors pledged $3.7bn  Bush requested $300mn for 2006  Congress may provide more  PEPFAR and or vs. Global Fund

18. 18 Global Fund claimed 220,000 on HIV therapy in July 2005 PEPFAR claimed 235,000 on ARVs Overlap 63,000