1. Topic 6: Climate change and climate models in Colombia

2. Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Climate Change Impacts in Colombia What the IPCC 4th Assessment Report has found: Retreat of glaciers are affecting already compromised water availability for consumption or hydropower generation [TS4.2 & 13.2.4]. Between 1990-2000 a 82% reduction in glaciers, showing a linear withdrawal of the ice of 10-15 m yearly. Under the current climate trends, glaciers of the country will disappear completely within the next 100 years [Table 13.3] In the future, sea level rise, weather and climatic variability and extremes modified by global warming are very likely to have impacts on mangroves [13.4.4]. SLR of 1.0 m would permanent flood 4,900 km2 of low lying coast. About 1.4 million people would be affected, 7,208,299 ha of crops and pasture will be lost [Table 13.7].

3. Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Predictability of weather and climate Trenberth

4. Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 CAM T341- Jim Hack Climate Models as a tool for future projections

5. Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009

6. What is behind a climate model www.bom.gov.au 3-dimension mathematical Grid Based on physical laws Represented by equations Horizontal Resolution: 150-500 km

7. Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Future of GCM – Earth System Models Ice Sheet IPCC, 2001

8. Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Auflösung GCM – Earth System Model Global General Circulation Continental large-scale flow Regional local IPCC AR4 2004 4TF IPCC AR3 1998 IPCC AR5 2010 500TF L. Buja, NCAR, 2007

9. Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 GCMs for impact assessments

10. Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Dynamical Downscaling - RCM 200-500 km horizontal resolution GCM: Scenarios possible Re-Analysis: ‘perfect boundary conditions‘ GCM Re-Analysis (z.B. ERA40) Regional Climate Model www.climateprediction.net Emissionsszenario 10-50 km horizontal resolution `time-slice‘ experiments CTRL (e.g. 1961-1990) SCEN (e.g. 2071-2100) Initial and lateral conditions provided by GCM (scenario) or Reanalyses (current climate)

11. Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Statistical Downscaling UC, Santander, Spain

12. Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 IPCC GCM results

13. Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Temperature at 2030 Averages and Extremes IPCC GCM results

14. Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Precipitation 2030 Averages and Extremes IPCC GCM results

15. Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 IPCC GCM web tool

16. Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Group 6: CC and Climate Models in Colombia Which large scale atmospheric circulation pattern influence Colombia’s climate, and how? IPCC GCM analysis (web tool): What past climate trends and future projections for Colombia can be detected? Based on the IPCC GCM analysis: How relate your findings to the impacts found by IPCC for Colombia (first slide)?