1. THE NEW DIGITAL ECOLOGY The growth and impact of the internet (and related technologies) Lee Rainie – Director Washington Web Managers Roundtable February 1, 2007

2. 1 - Experts and information gatekeepers are challenged

3. 2 - There is a libertarian backlash

4. 3 - Cataloguing and searching information becomes much easier

5. 4 - Crackpot ideas gain circulation

6. 5 - New institutions form

7. 6 - Fights over intellectual property break out

8. 7 - Cultures of identity multiply

9. 8 - New languages arise BRB: Be Right Back JK: Just Kidding LOL: Laughing Out Loud LYLAS: Love You Like a Sister NP: No Problem OMG: Oh My God OTP : On the Phone POS: Parent Over Shoulder ROFL: Rolling on Floor Laughing TTYL: Talk to You Later YW: You're Welcome !-(Black eye !-)Proud of black eye #-)Partied all night #:-oShocked %*}Inebriated %+{Got beat up %-)Dazed or silly %-6Brain-dead %-\Hung over %-|Worked all night %\Hangover >>:-<<Furious

10. 9 - Boundaries between public and private break down

11. 10 - New professions emerge

12. 11 - Educational methods are changed

13. Elizabeth Eisenstein: “The Printing Press as an Agent of Change” in 15 th Century Europe All of these occurred in the last decade …. and 550 years ago

14. 4 - Crackpot ideas gain circulation

15. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200715 7 new truths about the digital environment that are changing social and civic life

16. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200716 Truth 1 Media and gadgets are ubiquitous parts of everyday life

17. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200717 Home media ecology - 1975 Product Route to home Display Local storage TV stations phone TVCassette/ 8-track broadcast TV radio broadcast radio stereoVinyl album News mail Advertising newspaper delivery phone paper Radio Stationsnon-electronic Tom Wolzien, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co

18. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200718 Home media ecology – now Product Route to home Display Local storage cableTiVo (PVR)VCR TV stations DSLTV Info wireless/phoneradioDVD “Daily me” broadcast TVPCWeb-based storage content iPod /MP3server/ TiVo (PVR) Cable Nets broadcast radiostereoPC Web sites satellitemonitorweb storage Local news mailheadphonesCD/CD-ROM Content from express deliverypager individuals iPod / storageportable gamerMP3 player / iPod Peer-to-peer subcarriers / WIFIcell phonepagers - PDAs Advertising newspaper deliveryphonecable box Radio stations camcorder/cameraPDA/Palmgame console game console paper Satellite radionon-electronicstorage sticks/disks Adapted from Tom Wolzien, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co

19. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200719 Media experiences “by other means” 43% of young adult radio consumers occasionally listen to radio programs on something other than a radio console – computers (76%), laptops (34%), iPods (35%), cell phones (13%)

20. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200720 Media experiences “by other means” 20% of young adult TV viewers occasionally watch shows on something other than TV sets – computers (70%), laptops (36%), cell phones (16%), iPods (7%)

21. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200721 Media experiences “by other means” 13% of young adult internet users have placed a phone call via the internet and 19% have used webcams to connect with others in remote locales

22. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200722 Kaiser Family Foundation, Generation M, March 2005

23. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200723 Truth 2 New gadgets allow people to enjoy media, gather information, and carry on communication anywhere

24. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200724 Mobile devices 73% of adults own cell phones 77% of young adults and 63% of teens own them

25. The communications Swiss Army knife Percentage of cell phone owners whose phones have this feature Percentage who use this feature now on their cell phones Don’t use it now, but would like to have it Send and receive text messages 75% 35%13% Take still pictures39% 28%19% Play games63% 22%12% Access the internet44% 14%16% Send / receive email43% 8%24% Trade instant messagesNA 7%11% Play music21% 6%19% Record their own video clips22% 6%17% Get mobile mapsNA 4%47% Watch video or TV programs13% 2%14%

26. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200726 Mobile devices 55% of adults own digital cameras 62% of young adults own them 51% of young adults and 67% of older teens share photos on the internet

27. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200727 Mobile devices 43% of adults own video cameras 37% of teens own them 22% of young adults and 17% of older teens share videos online

28. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200728 Mobile devices 40% of adults play video games 83% of teens do so Kaiser Family Foundation – March 2005 67% of teens play games online

29. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200729 Mobile devices 30% of adults own laptops 43% of young adults own them

30. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200730 Mobile devices 20% of adults own MP3 players 51% of teens own them

31. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200731 Mobile devices 11% of adults own a PDA or Blackberry 8% of teens own them

32. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200732 Fragmented media environment (% of all Americans who “regularly” go to news source: PRC People/Press) -22% -53% +1,450% -31% +3% -23%

33. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200733 Truth 3 The internet (especially broadband) is at the center of the revolution

34. Internet and broadband adoption 1995-2006 All internet - 140 mill. Broadband - 98 mill.

35. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200735 Fragmented audiences: Nine digital gaps persist Factors where there are strong correlations Age – internet use is highest among young, lowest among older Americans Educational attainment – internet use is high among those with college and graduate degrees and relatively low among those with high school diplomas Disability status – internet use is lower among the disabled Language preference– internet use highest among English speakers, and lower among those who prefer to speak a language other than English

36. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200736 Nine digital gaps persist Factors where the correlations are weaker, but are still significant Race and ethnicity – internet use is high among whites and Asian-Americans and lower among African-Americans. Income – internet use is highest among those living in households with $75,000 or more of income and low among those living in households with under $30,000 of income. Parental status – internet use is higher among those with minor children living at home than in households with no children under 18 living at home.

37. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200737 Nine digital gaps persist Factors where there are differences in the internet using populations, but where statistical correlations are not notable Employment status – internet use is highest among students, lowest among the retired and widows Community type – internet use is higher among suburban and urban residents, lower among rural residents

38. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200738 Truth 4 Different people use the internet in different ways

39. Use of government websites -- gender

40. Use of government websites – race/ethnicity

41. Use of government websites – generations

42. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200742 Different people use the internet in different ways -- Gender Men > Women Be online on a typical day Use wireless devices/connections Get news/politics Search on hobbies Browse for fun Online banking, auctions, stock trades Job-related research Swap music files Sports Create content Use dating sites Access adult content Women = Men Use search engines Check weather Games Research/buy products Store/display photos Use online invitations Woman > Men Appreciate email and instant messaging Health information Religious information Seek online support Research travel Probe genealogy Maps/directions

43. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200743 Different people use the internet in different ways – Race/ethnicity Whites Be online Broadband Wireless / PDAs Email Perform most kinds of transactions Get news/politics Do job-related research Create content Seek hobby information Listen to audio / watch video African-Americans Information for new jobs Information for new housing Browse for fun Religious information Play games Cell phones Latinos Access cultural content Download/share files Instant message Get sports information Research travel Cell phones

44. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200744 Different people use the internet in different ways – Generations Young Instant message Games Wireless Dating Housing New jobs Create content P2P services Play games Cultural information Rate things Adult content Gen X / Boomers Transactions Get news / politics Health Job-related information Information for new jobs new housing Religious information Seek online support Seniors Email Weather Get maps directions Research travel

45. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200745 Truth 5 Multi-tasking is a way of life – and people live in a state of “continuous partial attention” --- Linda Stone

46. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200746 Kaiser Family Foundation, Generation M, March 2005

47. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200747 Kaiser Family Foundation, Generation M, March 2005

48. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200748 Multitasking and attention deficits: What else were you doing when you last… Watched TV Listened to radio Read a newspaper Used the internet Talked on the phone Watched TV*9%38%17%54% Listened to radio 13*211630 Read a newspaper 4321*214 Used the internet 20172*19 Talked on the phone 57251418* Source: Forrester Research, 2004

49. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200749 Truth 6 Ordinary citizens have a chance to be publishers, movie makers, artists, song creators, and story tellers

50. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200750 39% of online teens share their own creations online, such as artwork, photos, stories, or videos ---- 22% of online adults have done this Content creation

51. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200751 33% have created or worked on webpages or blogs for others, including those for groups they belong to, friends or school assignments ---- 13% of online adults do this Content creation

52. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200752 27% of online teens report keeping their own personal webpage ---- 14% of online adults have their own page Content creation

53. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200753 Content creation 26% say they remix content they find online into their own artistic creations ---- 9% of online adults have done this

54. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200754 19%+ have created their own online journal or blog ---- 8% of online adults have a blog Content creation

55. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200755 55% of online teens have created their own profile on a social network site like MySpace or Facebook ---- 20% of online adults have such profiles Content creation

56. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200756 SNS: The Abridged Version Girls use it more, more likely to use it to reinforce pre-existing relationships, boys meet more new people, flirt Communication moving into SNS Teens are taking protective measures; 66% of SNS-using teens have in some way restricted access to their profile Tension in social networking sites over “findability” –Want to stay safe; want privacy from parents, teachers –Want to connect with friends, those with similar interests

57. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200757 Communication with social networks is changing and “weak ties” are growing inside networks We maintain larger networks Communications patterns shift -- email, IM, texting, blogging Activities on SNS sites: –84% post message on friend’s wall or page –82% send private messages to a friend –76% post comments to a friend’s blog –72% make plans with friends on SNS –61% send a bulletin or mass message to all friends in the system –33% wink, poke, give e-props to friends

58. Content creation by age

60. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200760 Social networks matter more – especially in important decisions The Internet’s Role in Making an Important Decision What specific role did the internet play in the event for which the internet played an important or crucial role? For respondents who said the internet played a crucial or important role in buying a car, making a major investment, getting additional career training, choosing a school for self or child, or helping someone with a major illness or health condition. Help you find advice and support from other people 34% Help you find information or compare options 30% Help you find professional or expert services 28% Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project March 2005 Survey. The margin of error ±5% for the 560 respondents to this question.

61. Total who used internet % relevant internet users who say int. played crucial / important role Overall growth > 2002 Bought a car (62.5 mill.) 29 million27% 17 million 21% Got more education / training for career (53 mill.) 35 million39% 21 million 50% Chose a school for me / my child (39.5 mill.) 27 million45% 17 million 55% Helped another with a serious illness (66.5 mill.) 33 million24% 17 million 55% Made major investment (56 mill.) 29 million29% 16 million 77% Internet use at major life moments

62. Total who used internet % relevant internet users who say int. played crucial / important role Overall growth > 2002 Found a new place to live (32.5 mill.) 16 million33% 11 million 25% Changed jobs (34 mill.) 14 million25% 8 million 17% Dealt myself with a major illness (26 mill.) 12 million26% 7 million 16% Got married (7 mill.) 3 million24% 1.6 million 63% Internet use at major life moments

63. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200763 Social network sites are special personal and community spaces Self-expression and feedback 19% have a blog 38% read the blogs of others 76% of social network-using teens leave comments on the blogs of friends

64. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200764 Consequence – society moves more toward “networked individualism” (Barry Wellman) Human relations moving from groups to networks Looser, rather than denser networks Multiple Specialized Relationships Partial Membership in Multiple Networks More Long-Distance Relationships More Transitory Relationships More Weak Ties More Uncertainty, More Maneuverability More “reporting” relationships – less hierarchy

65. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200765 Truth 7 Everything will change even more in coming years

66. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200766 The J-curve laws Computing power doubles every 18 months – Moore’s law Storage power doubles every 12 months – disk law Communications power doubles every 2-3 years with improvements in fiber optics and compression – Gilder’s law –Spectrum power is enhanced with efficiency improvements in spectrum allocation and use

67. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200767 Home media ecology – future Product Route to home Display Local storage cableTiVo (PVR)VCR TV stations phone/DSLTV Info wirelessradioDVD “Daily me” broadcast TVPCWeb-based storage content iPod /MP3server/ TiVo (PVR) Cable Nets broadcast radiostereoPC Web sites satellitemonitorweb storage Local news mailheadphonesCD/CD-ROM Content from express deliverypager individuals iPod / storageportable gamerMP3 player / iPod Peer-to-peer subcarriers / WIFIcell phonepagers - PDAs Advertising newspaper deliveryphonecable box Radio stationsPDA/Palmgame console game console paper Satellite radionon-electronicstorage sticks/disks Adapted from Tom Wolzien, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co

68. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200768 Thank you! Lee Rainie Director Pew Internet & American Life Project 1615 L Street NW Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036 Lrainie@pewinternet.org 202-419-4500

69. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200769 Consequence – Citizens’ expectations change People expect institutions and individuals to be “findable” online and available People expect information will be available and transactions will be smoother than in the past People expect institutions and individuals to be much more forthcoming about what they do and how they do it (transparency imperative) People hope that relevant information (independent/edited AND commercial) will be packaged and linked – keywords uber alles

70. New Digital Ecology February 1, 200770 Consequence – Citizen interactions change The boundary between “consumer” and “producer” breaks down Conversations replace traditional “marketing”: People expect to be able to interact with other people and institutional information and media Rankings, ratings, commentary are part of the conversation – as are links. “Brands” live in a paradoxical state: Customer loyalty can be honored and nourished more than in the past, but “consumers” then “own” the definition of brands more