1. Land Use Futures: Governance, Innovation & Territory John Goddard Newcastle University

2. Governance The changing role of the state in influencing what use is made of land where The changing balance between private and public interest and between individual & collective action The changing distributional (welfare) benefits of access to land resources The constraining influence of sunk investment (infrastructure) and the power of historic vested interests The need for a narrative linking past,present & future

3. Figure Scenario structure

4. Innovation The changing organisation of production, distribution and consumption arising from innovation The emergence of total innovation (“more than products resulting from scientific and technological research also new services, business models and organisational forms that occur in all sectors of the economy”) (NESTA) Transformational innovations that fundamentally change business and social life (e.g. the internet) The influence of these innovations on what economic activities are located where and where people live Innovations mediated through existing structures (organisations, people and places)

6. Territory Interaction of innovation and governance with the real geography of the UK The changing geography of the national settlement system National, regional and city scale views of land use systems and sub-systems The London city region, other city regions and the North/South divide The pace of change in the settlement system

8. from Mike Coombes (forthcoming 2009) “English rural housing market policy: some inconvenient truths?” Planning Practice and Research

9. 1950

10. Whiteley: retail, office park and houses (1990s) Retail and housing (1990s) Housing (1980s) Housing and shopping centre (1980s) 2004 Daedalus airfield? Segensworth: industry/offices (1980s) Original inter- urban development (1960s)

11. EVIDENCE REVIEW (Part of the PERS) POLICY REVIEW (Part of the PERS) SUB-REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS REGIONAL ‘FUTURES’ – SCENARIOS DESCRIBING ALTERNATIVE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PATHS (PATHWAYS) NORMATIVE FRAMEWORK – INTEGRATED REGIONAL FRAMEWORK (IRF) Values and aspirations Trends and policy drivers Scenarios Consultations Sensitivity analyses / Probability assessments REGIONAL CHALLENGES -– OPTIONS APPRAISAL (A ‘Regional Conversation’?) IRF as the basis of assessment criteria (as related to the 4 capitals model) Key Drivers AND Objectives Key Trade-offs Key Win-wins PREFERRED PATHWAY / OPTION STRATEGIC DIRECTION (Building on Preferred Option) Key Objectives Key Outcomes ECONOMETRIC MODELLING SINGLE INTEGRATED REGIONAL STRATEGY Figure 1: Overall Framework of Work to develop the SIRS