1. CSE 221: Probabilistic Analysis of Computer Systems Topics covered: Independent events Bayes rule Bernoulli trials (Sec. 1.10-1.12)

2. Reliability of parallel systems  Definition: only one component is expected to be functioning.

3. Reliability of parallel systems: Example

4. Reliability of series/parallel systems  Components can be arranged in a combination of series/parallel structures.

5. Reliability of series/parallel systems: Example

6. Bayes rule  Definition:  Intuition

7. Bayes rule: Example  Sequence of three coin tosses:

8. Bayes rule: Example (contd..)

9. Bayes rule: Example  Chip testing:

10. Bernoulli trials

11. Bernoulli trials: Example  Sequence of three coin tosses:  What is the probability of 2 heads?