1. Regional Demographics Mid-Missouri Economic Summit Capitol Plaza Hotel Jefferson City, MO June 29, 2007 Bill Elder, Director Office of Social & Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA) University of Missouri—Columbia

2. Overview Population and Economic Change Demographics of Growth in Mid-Missouri –Trends in Missouri by County –Mid-Missouri Components of Growth –2006 Place Population Estimates Regional Economic Development Trends Discussion.. Wh`Wh` Why what you are doing is so important ……

3. Population Change 2000-2006 U.S.: 299,398,484 (6.4%) Missouri: 5,842,713 (4.4%) Dark Green States > 12 % Five states account for 50% of the nation’s population growth * * * * *

4. Employment in Missouri increased by 33,100 from April 2006 to April 2007, seasonally adjusted. Source: MERIC and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment

8. Opportunities in Economic Change “The Perfect Storm” “The Kauffman New Economy Report” How Flat is our world?

9. Divergent skill distributions The changing economy Demographic shifts Educational Testing Service

10. Divergent skill distributions –Flat NAEP scores –High school graduation slacking –Poor literacy and math skills –Race and ethnic gaps

11. The changing economy –Declining manufacturing – more service –Two thirds of job growth has been associated with college-level jobs –College grads earn 51% more than H.S. grads –Earning premiums reward education & skill

12. Demographic shifts –Labor force will grow more slowly –Impact of the baby boom.. –Dependence on International migration –Increasing Hispanic population – with lower levels of educational attainment

14. “The New Economy” Dynamic Markets Global Competition Networked Organizations Flexible Production Intellectual Property and Knowledge Digitization – Broadband… Broad and Changing Skill Sets Entrepreneurial Collaborative Relations

15. Missouri Declined - 28 th in 2002 - 35 th in 2007 Is Mid-Missouri part of the New Economy?

16. f l a t How f l a t the world is depends on where your standing.. The World is Flat – “new oil wells” -- Thomas Friedman Making Globalization Work -- Joseph Stiglitz Networking Diverse Assets, especially human capital…”collaboration” is hard

17. Camden Boone Morgan Miller Callaway Cooper Osage Randolph Cole Moniteau Audrain Howard

21. 19992005Change Pct Change Total 896,910 894,855-2,055-0.2% Hispanic 12,633 25,166 12,53399.2% Enrollment Change From 1.4% to 2.8% in 5 years

23. SOURCE: Census Bureau/NCHS. Projection algorithm, programming by OSEDA Chart Prepared by: University of Missouri Extension, Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis 24March2006

32. Camden Boone Morgan Miller Callaway Cooper Osage Randolph Cole Moniteau Audrain Howard

33. Population Change 2000-2006 In Mid-Missouri Population Percent Area2006Change Missouri 5,842,713246,0304.4% 12-County Area 455,56122,7335.3%

34. Regional Population Change 2000-2006 Counties Higher than the State Rate Population Percent County2006Change Camden 40,2833,2328.7% Boone 146,04810,5947.8% Morgan 20,7161,4077.3% Miller 24,9891,4256.0% Callaway 43,0722,3065.7% Cooper 17,4417714.6%

35. Population Percent County2006Change Osage 13,4984363.3% Randolph 25,4387753.1% Cole 73,2961,8992.7% Moniteau 15,0922651.8% Audrain 25,739-114-0.4% Howard 9,949-263-2.6% Regional Population Change 2000-2006 Counties Lower than the State Rate

36. PercentPct Chg FertilityPct Over ChangeNat IncNet MigRateAge 65+ Camden 8.7%-0.3%9.1%60.120.7% Boone 7.8%4.7%3.1%48.89.1% Morgan 7.3%-0.7%7.9%70.020.9% Miller 6.0%1.4%4.6%64.515.5% Callaway 5.7%2.4%3.2%56.211.4% Cooper 4.6%0.3%4.3%62.814.7% Components of Change

37. PercentPct Chg FertilityPct Over ChangeNat IncNet MigRateAge 65+ Osage 3.3%2.7%0.7%69.514.8% Randolph 3.1%1.8%1.4%73.814.1% Cole 2.7%3.2%-0.6%64.211.7% Moniteau 1.8%2.5%-0.7%74.613.7% Audrain -0.4%2.2%-2.6%66.215.8% Howard -2.6%0.3%-2.9%53.917.1% Components of Change

38. 2006 Population Place Estimates PlaceEstimatePct 2000Pct 2005 Columbia city94,42810.82.7 Jefferson City39,328-2.00.6 Moberly city13,9921.70.5 Fulton city12,3241.52.0 Mexico city11,016-2.70.4 Boonville city8,7556.50.9 Source: U.S. Census

39. 2006 Population Estimates Source: U.S. Census PlaceEstimateSix YearOne Year Eldon city4,9841.81.0 Osage Beach city4,45420.44.8 California city4,1853.4-0.2 Vandalia city4,0625.50.1 Centralia city3,611-4.3-1.3 Holts Summit city3,52019.74.1

40. 2006 Population Estimates Source: U.S. Census PlaceEstimatePct 2000Pct 2005 Camdenton city3,18214.14.2 Tipton city3,143-3.6-0.1 Fayette city2,701-3.40.1 Versailles city2,6945.01.3 Ashland city2,165-3.7-1.2 Lake Ozark city1,93732.03.4

41. Regional Economic Share St. Louis County 21% Jackson County 11% Central 6.5% Upper South Central 3.6% 2007 Missouri Economic Report

42. Source: MERIC Central Upper South Central

43. Source: MERIC New Businesses per 1,000 Population, 2006

44. Source: MERIC, MO Dept. of Revenue, U.S. BEA and U.S. Census Bureau Retail Share 2005

45. Missouri Projected Employment Growth by Sector 2004-2014 Source: MERIC

46. Financial Services Life Sciences Automotive Defense/Homeland Security Information Technology Agribusiness Energy Transportation/Logistics DED Target Industries

47. What’s in store for Mid-Missouri?

48. Population Change 2000-2006 In Mid-Missouri Population Percent Area2006Change Missouri 5,842,713246,0304.4% 12-County Area 455,561 22,7335.3% Mid-Missouri’s most valuable resources for development is its human capital

49. Google MERIC For additional information …..

50. Google OSEDA For additional information …..

51. Regional Demographics Mid-Missouri Economic Summit Questions? Bill Elder, Director Office of Social & Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA) University of Missouri—Columbia Http://www.oseda.missouri.edu