1. GEOG 102 – Population, Resources, and the Environment Professor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue Topic 9 – Environmental Sustainability A – The Concept of Sustainability B – Towards a Sustainable World?

2. The Concept of Sustainability ■1. Sustainable Development ■2. Sustainable Society ■3. General Indicators A A

3. Sustainable Development ■The issue Brought forward in view of challenges at a scale never seen before. Demographic challenge: Strong population growth, notably in the developing world. Resource challenge: An increasing usage of resources, renewable and non renewable alike. –Raw materials. –Energy. –Food. Environmental challenge: Higher levels of environmental impacts of human activities. The capacity of this world to sustain its population is compromised. 1 1

4. Sustainable Development ■“Sustainable” The process or the activity can be maintained without exhaustion or collapse. Intra and Inter-generational issue. Capacity of a system to accommodate changes: Rates of use of renewable resources should not exceed their rates or regeneration. Rates of use of non-renewable resources should not exceed at which renewable substitutes are developed. Rates of pollution emissions should not exceed the assimilative capacity of the environment. 1 1 Your generation The 340 generations of humanity Generations to come

5. Sustainable Development ■“Development” Development is about people, not necessarily the economy. Development is a process. Improvement of the welfare of the population: Create an enabling environment for people. Often forgotten in the immediate concern with the accumulation of commodities and wealth. Finding ways to satisfy and improve human needs. 1 1

6. Sustainable Development ■Conditions: Appropriate social, political, legal and economic conditions. ■Outcomes Improvement of the physical and human capital. Human capital: Improved health or knowledge. Improved opportunities for people to use their acquired capabilities. Improved work or leisure conditions. Physical capital: Improved private infrastructures. Improved collective infrastructures. Development -Health -Education -Quality of life -Rights -Equity -Rule of law Conditions -Employment -Surplus Human CapitalPhysical capital Outcomes 1 1

7. Sustainable Society Sustainable Development Social Equity Economic Efficiency Environmental Responsibility Living conditions Equal opportunity Social cohesion International solidarity Maintenance of human capital. Economic growth Efficiency and competitiveness Flexibility and stability Production / consumption Employment International trade Consumption of resources Materials and wastes Risks Rate of change Natural and cultural landscape 2 2

8. Sustainable Society ■Three “E”s Economics. Ecology / Environment. Equity (social). ■Population Lessen population growth and stabilize it (preferably). Stop subsidizing reproduction. Access to contraception and family planning (freedom of choice). Basic material needs satisfied (social obligation?). Political and gender equity. Access to information and education. 2 2

9. Sustainable Society ■Ecology Restore the biological base (soils, forests, atmosphere and hydrosphere). Agriculture supporting ecosystems (diversity and organic recycling). ■Energy Minimize and abolish fossil fuels (market forces are likely to do so). Shift to natural gas as an interim measure. Move to renewable energy sources (hydrogen, solar, wind, geothermal, biomass and hydroelectric). 2 2

10. Sustainable Society ■Economy Promotion of efficiency and recycling. Source materials mainly recycled materials. Reduce wastes in production, packaging and distribution. Economy like an ecosystem. Dematerialization of the economy. ■Spatial forms Rational use of space (market forces). Dense and compact cities. Multifamily dwellings. Alternative transportation modes: Leaning on mass transit, cycling and walking. 2 2

11. Energy and Density 2 2 80 40 20 60 20603004080100 Los Angeles Sydney London Singapore United States Australia and Canada Europe Asia Hong Kong Chicago Houston Phoenix Detroit Denver Adelaide Melbourne Toronto New York Vienna Paris Berlin Tokyo Energy consumption per capita (1,000 millions of joules) Population density (people per hectare)

12. Sustainable Society ■Social forms Material sufficiency and frugality: Replacing consumerism and materialism (unlikely). Living according to one’s means. Self-worth and social status: Not measured primarily by possession (unlikely). Balance between individual rights and obligations: End of social welfare and the irresponsibility it creates? ■Governance Less government and more individual initiative. Global governance (common policies for common causes). Regional autonomy (regional issues and cultural / political differences). Avoid socialism and fascism (especially “world improvers”). 2 2

13. Global Sustainability Economic Development Sustain economic growth Maximize profit Expand markets Externalize costs Ecological Development Respect carrying capacity Conserve and recycle resources Reduce waste Social Development Satisfy needs Increase self-reliance Socialism Conservationism Ecologism 2 2

14. Global Sustainability Quality of Life Sustainable level Five Billion Consumes 20% Resource / Energy consumption Carrying capacity 2 2 One Billion Consumes 80% Unsustainable level

15. General Indicators Global Sustainability 3 3 Water, materials and wasteEnergy and air quality Livability Transportation Land, green spaces and biodiversity

16. General Indicators: What the Market Can Do Energy and air quality New sources of energy. Less energy intensity. Lower emission levels. Water, materials and waste Less water intensity. Lower material intensity (packaging) Recycling system. Efficient waste disposal. Land, green spaces and biodiversity Increased agricultural productivity. Manage Livability Improved health. Higher education. Global access to information and entertainment (Internet). Transportation Provide collective (transit) and private mobility. 3 3

17. Towards a Sustainable World? ■1. Conventional Worlds ■2. Barbarization ■3. Great Transitions B B

18. The Futures of Humanity 1 1 Reference Balanced growth Fortress World New Sustainability Paradigm Eco-communalism 2000 4681012 50 100 150 200 250 Gross World Product (trillion $US) Breakdown World population (in billions) Transformed Worlds Conventional Worlds Barbarization

19. Conventional Worlds ■Conventional Development scenario Situation left as it is. Solution led to market mechanisms. Little or no collective efforts. Limited success of birth control policies. Generation of wealth, but unfair distribution. ■Consequences Growth of inequalities and environmental degradation. Potential instability and environmental collapse. 1 1

20. Conventional Worlds ■Balanced Growth Legislation and policy intervention: Strengthen management systems. Ensure widespread use of better technology. Provide greater social equity and environment protection. Same patterns of production and consumption. Notions of global governance. ■Consequences Less demographic growth and environmental damage. May not be enough to curb major global environmental issues. Socialism. 1 1

21. Barbarization ■Breakdown Neo-Malthusian perspective. Case of destructive anarchy. Governmental and social failures. “Mad Max” scenario. ■Consequences Environmental and social deterioration: Scarcity, violence, and massive migration. Unchecked population growth. Economic collapse: Drastic fall in global population levels. Loss of institutions, productive capacity, and technology. 2 2

22. 2030 Breakdown Scenario 1900 2000 2100 Pollution Industrial output Population Life expectancy Natural resources Oil production 2030 Food 2 2 Breakdown

23. Barbarization ■Fortress World Authoritarian “solution”. Conflicts between the rich and the poor: A minority of the elite in privileged enclaves. Protect their way of life by forcibly imposing limits and social controls on the impoverished majority. Seizing control of critical natural resources for exclusive use. Restricting access to information and technology. ■Consequences Unchecked demographic growth. Social stratification. Instability of a “Fortress” system may push the world into a “Breakdown” situation. 2 2

24. 3 3 Great Transitions ■Eco-communalism Deep green utopian vision. Strong collective efforts towards small-scale. Emphasis: Bio-regionalism. Localism and face-to-face democracy. Small technology and economic autarky. ■Consequences Population and economic scales diminish. Environmental conditions improve dramatically. Socialism/communism?

25. Great Transitions ■New Sustainability Paradigm Change the industrial civilization. Achieving sustainability at the global level: Every activity most demonstrate sustainability. More equitable global civilization rather than to retreat into localism. ■Consequences Dramatic decrease of per capita material flows: Through behavioral changes and technology improvements. High-quality environment. Well-distributed welfare with economic activities oriented towards services. 3 3

26. Conclusion ■Which Future? In light of the current situation around the world, which scenario is the most likely? What are the alternatives? ■Population, resources and the environment The absolute bottom line. Will shape the fate of humanity in the 21 st century. Period of strong demographic growth (demographic transition). Population policy and family planning. Migration and urbanization. Consumption of resources (commodities and energy). The environmental challenge.