1. 1 1 Babar TM and © Nelvana David Hitlin DOE Review Caltech July 21, 2004

2. 2 2 Babar TM and © Nelvana Towards a Super B Factory The current B Factories PEP-II and KEKB have performed spectacularly They can now produce >100fb -1 /year It is reasonable to contemplate that by the end of the decade, both B A B AR and Belle will have accumulated 500-1000 fb -1 (0.5-1 ab -1 ) Is there a motivation to upgrade one or both of these projects to be able to increase the data sample to 10-50 ab -1 ? Both PEP-II/ B A B AR and KEKB/Belle have concluded that answer is Yes It is as yet unclear whether this would result in a combined upgrade effort This presentation will discuss the physics motivation for such a conclusion

3. 3 3 Babar TM and © Nelvana Finding New Physics We are all certain that there is New Physics beyond the Standard Model Finding New Physics, and characterizing what is found, will be the main thrust of HEP activities in the next several decades The LHC has a role The LC has a role High intensity neutrino experiments have a role Non-accelerator experiments have a role High statistics experiments in flavor physics have a role There is clear, specific motivation for obtaining a ~50 ab -1 data sample There is adequate sensitivity to isolate New Physics effects Flavor experiments yield unique information not obtainable by other technique The pattern of deviations from Standard Model predictions is diagnostic of the type of SUSY breaking

4. 4 4 Babar TM and © Nelvana The expected mass scale in MSUGRA

5. 5 5 Babar TM and © Nelvana B A B AR and Belle have shown that the Standard Model CKM phase can account for the CP -violating asymmetry measured in b  ccs decays The origin of the matter-antimatter asymmetry remains a mystery A successful quantitative application of the Sakharov conditions requires CPV sources beyond the Standard Model There are two approaches to an answer Stipulate that the asymmetry is produced by leptogenesis – this is intriguing, speculative and hard to explore experimentally The main thrust Search for new CP -violating phases in the quark sector If SUSY is the New Physics, we know exactly where to look: and decays It is intriguing that this is exactly where there are current experimental anomalies in B decay What does it take to explore this sector at a level where we can make statistically significant measurements that would unambiguously indicate the presence of New Physics ? _

6. 6 6 Babar TM and © Nelvana New CP Violating effects must be there CP effects in the flavor sector that are not accounted for by the CKM phase must exist, and may be measurable at a Super B Factory If they do not exist, SUSY and other models constructed with the same motivation will be ruled out, or strongly constrained Assume that evidence for SUSY is found at the LHC or NLC A new world will open: we will be asking different experimental questions What will we actually know? The masses of some of the SUSY partners: gluino, squark, …….. Something about coupling constants Perhaps the identity of the LSP When the evidence for SUSY comes from LHC, it will be important to study CPV due to loop effects of the new particles in flavor physics at the scale of 10 10 to 10 11 B decays Many of the interesting branching fractions are very small Many measurements depend on the “recoil method” – unique to e + e - B Factories - to reduce background or get a kinematic handle on decays with missing neutrinos

7. 7 7 Babar TM and © Nelvana Many SM extensions yield measurable effects in B physics Little Higgs w MFV UV fix Extra dim w SM on brane Supersoft SUSY breaking Dirac gauginos SM-like B physics New Physics in B data MSSM MFV low tan  Generic Little Higgs Generic extra dim w SM in bulk SUSY GUTs Effective SUSY MSSM MFV large tan  after G. Hiller

8. 8 8 Babar TM and © Nelvana Effects of SUSY breaking on CPV in flavor physics Specific SUSY-breaking models produce specific CPV patterns Many of the models on the market generate specific, calculable CP -violating effects in hadronic and rare B decays Other extensions (extra dimensions, Little Higgs,….) have the same sorts of effects, although they often have distinguishable patterns In order to exploit CP violation as a tool to search for physics beyond the Standard Model we must do two things: Achieve the highest meaningful precision on CPV (  ) measurements of the B unitarity triangle This requires several x 10 ab -1 Measure and CP -violating (and sometimes CP -conserving) asymmetries and kinematic distributions in very rare decays with branching fractions of <<10 -5, both inclusive and exclusive These are decay modes such as where we have at present only a handful of events

9. 9 9 Babar TM and © Nelvana Randall-Sundrum Standard Model Warped extra dimensions yield striking signatures in B decay Agashe, Perez, Soni hep-ph/0406101

10. 10 10 Babar TM and © Nelvana    Improve calculations of |V ub |, |V cb |, Lattice Improving precision of the B Unitarity Triangle Measure sides and angles of the Unitarity Triangle to best possible precision Improve measurements of |V ub | and |V cb | essentially independent of new physics Super B Factory using the recoil technique Measure  m s Hadron machine Improve measurement of  m d Super B Factory Measure sin2  Super B Factory using  0  0 Measure sin2  eff Super B Factory Hadron machine Measure  Super B Factory Hadron machine Measure sin2  Super B Factory Hadron machine Test  to ~5%

11. 11 11 Babar TM and © Nelvana Projected uncertainties in lattice QCD calculations are a good match to projected measurement uncertainties Lattice uncertainty projections – R. Sugar (LQCDEC) Lattice QCDUncertainty (%) QuantityNow1-2 years5-8 years3-5 years

12. 12 12 Babar TM and © Nelvana Measurement precision of a Super B Factory experiment The following tables summarize the precision that can be achieved at a Super B factory experiment with data samples of 3, 10 and 50 ab -1 in several areas: Unitarity triangle measurements Sides Angles CP asymmetries in rare decays Rare decay branching fractions Kinematic distributions in rare decays The tables include estimates of The size of New Physics effects The precision of Standard Model predictions Comparisons with hadronic accelerator B experiments ( LHCb, BTeV ) Key no published difficult or impossible estimate at a hadron experiment

13. 13 13 Babar TM and © Nelvana Measurement precision – sides of the Unitarity Triangle Unitarity Triangle - Sides e + e - Precision1 Year Precision MeasurementGoal3/ab10/ab50/abLHCbBTeV V ub (inclusive) syst =5-6%2%1.3% V ub (exclusive) (  ) syst=3%5.5%3.2% V cb (inclusive) V cb (exclusive) f b  (B   ) SM:  ~5x10 -7 15% f b  (B   ) SM:  ~5x10 -6 15% f b  (B   ) SM:  ~5x10 -5 3.3  6  V td / V ts (  Theory 12%~3%~1%

14. 14 14 Babar TM and © Nelvana Measurement precision – angles of the Unitarity Triangle Unitarity Triangle - Angles e + e - Precision1 Year Precision Measurement3/ab10/ab50/abLHCbBTeV  S   BR’s  isospin) 6.7  3.9  2.1   (  ) (Isospin, Dalitz) (syst  3  )3, 2.3  1.6, 1.3  1, 0.6  2.5  -5  44  (  ) (penguin, isospin) (stat+syst)2.9  1.5  0.72   (J/  K S ) (all modes)0.6  0.34  0.18  0.57  0.49   (B  D (*) K) (ADS)2-3  ~10  <13   (all methods)1.2-2  Theory:  ~5%,  ~ 1%  ~0.1%

15. 15 15 Babar TM and © Nelvana A projection to 2010 by the CKM Fitter group  

16. 16 16 Babar TM and © Nelvana The Unitarity Triangle – is there room for New Physics? The usual Unitarity Triangle ( B triangle) is only one of six such relations It has been the most extensively studied because it is the most sensitive to Standard Model CP violation It may be sensitive to new physics that violates CKM unitarity, since it can be studied with the highest experimental (and theoretical) precision The B UT is sensitive to b  d and s  d transitions, but not particularly to b  s These processes are used precisely because they are the cleanest in the Standard Model, so it is difficult for New Physics to compete with them Thus increases in experimental precision of the B UT, which are certainly warranted, especially in view of expected improvements in the precision of lattice QCD calculations, are not the most likely to be the most direct approach to study new flavor physics

17. 17 17 Babar TM and © Nelvana A better probe of new physics 1)Measure the CP asymmetry in modes other than that measure sin2  in the Standard Model Precision of benchmark sin2  in can improve to the ~1% level Expect the same value for “sin2  ” in “  but different SUSY models can produce different asymmetries A great deal of luminosity is required to make these measurements to meaningful precision

18. 18 18 Babar TM and © Nelvana Gluino contribution to B  K S

19. 19 19 Babar TM and © Nelvana Mass insertion approximation: model-independent  K S B A B AR (now)  K S 30 ab -1 The scale of New Physics Ciuchini, Franco, Martinelli, Masiero, & Silvestrini  23 mass insertion  13 mass insertion  A CP (J/  K S -  0 K S )  A CP (J/  K S -  K S )

20. 20 20 Babar TM and © Nelvana Measurement precision – rare B decays Rare Decays – New Physics – CPV e + e - Precision1 Year Precision MeasurementGoal*3/ab10/ab50/abLHCbBTeV S(B0KS)S(B0KS) Difference between S in these modes and S(B 0  J  K S ) is < ~5% 16%8.7%3.9%16y ??7y ?? S(B0KS+KL)S(B0KS+KL) -- S(B'Ks )S(B'Ks ) 5.7%3%1%-- S(BKs)S(BKs) 8.2%5%4%-- S(BKs)S(BKs) 11%6%4%-- A CP (b  s  SM: <0.5%1%0.5% -- A CP (B  K*  ) SM: <0.5%0.6%0.3% -- CPV in mixing (|q/p|) <0.6% --

21. 21 21 Babar TM and © Nelvana Measurement precision – rare decays Rare Decays – New Physics e + e - Precision1 Year Precision MeasurementGoal3/ab10/ab50/abLHCbBTeV 19%12%5% -- BD(*))BD(*)) SM:  : 8x10 -3 10%5.6%2.5%--   B  s ) (K -,0, K* -,0 ) 1 exclusive mode ~4x10 -6 >1  (per mode) >2   (per mode) >4   (per mode) --   B  invisible) <2x10 -6 <1x10 -6 <4x10 -7 --   B d  ) ~ 8x10 -11 <3x10 -8 <1.6x10 -8 <7x10 -9 1-2evt   B d  ) ~ 1x10 -8 <10 -3  (10 -4 ) --   ) <10 -8 --

22. 22 22 Babar TM and © Nelvana Measurement precision - s + - New Physics – K + -, s + - e + e - Precision1 Year Precision Measurement3/ab10/ab50/abLHCbBTeV  (B  K      /  (B  Ke + e - ) ~8%~4%~2% A CP (B  K* + - ) (all) (high mass) ~6% ~12% ~3% ~6% ~1.5 ~3% ~1.5% ~3% ~2% ~4% A FB (B  K* + - ) : s 0 A FB (B  K* l + l - ) : A CP ~20%~9%9%~12% A FB (B  s + - ) : ŝ 0 A FB (B  s l + l - ) : C 9, C 10 ~27% 36-55% ~15% 20-30% ~7% 9-13%

23. 23 23 Babar TM and © Nelvana Physics summary A Super B Factory can provide a wide variety of measurements having the potential to show New Physics effects It can demonstrate that there are effects in rare B decays that cannot be accounted for in the Standard Model Through a series of measurements in different processes, and through an interplay with the LHC and LC, we can learn the details of the New Physics in the flavor sector B d unitarity  msms  A CP B   K s B  M s  indirect CP b  s  direct CP mSUGRAclosedsmall SU(5) SUSY GUT + R (degenerate) closedlargesmall SU(5) SUSY GUT + R (non-degenerate) closedsmalllarge small U(2) Flavor symmetrylarge sizable Unitarity triangle Rare decays Okada – SLAC 10 36 Workshop If the New Physics is SUSY, Super B can determine the type of SUSY-breaking from the pattern of effects

24. 24 24 Babar TM and © Nelvana Projecting Physics Reach Working assumptions LHCb starts in January 2008 with 50% of design for 2 years, achieving design in January 2010 BTEV starts in January 2010 with 50% of design for 2 years. achieving design in January 2012 Super B Factory October 2011 = 2.5x10 35 (50% of design) (as with PEP-II) October 2012 = 5x10 35 October 2013 = 7x10 35 (replacement of inner SVT by thin pixel device and complete installation of 952MHz RF)

25. 25 25 Babar TM and © Nelvana Tagged sample projections for  K 0 Effective number of tagged events SuperB LHCb BTEV

26. 26 26 Babar TM and © Nelvana Error Projections for  K 0 Error on sine amplitude PEP-II, KEKB Super B Factory 10/2011 SuperB LHCb BTEV

27. 27 27 Babar TM and © Nelvana Projections for      (S  )  int Effective number of tagged events Error on sine amplitude PEP-II, KEKB Super B Factory 10/2011 SuperB LHCb BTEV

28. 28 28 Babar TM and © Nelvana Projections for two-body isospin analysis Effective number of tagged events Error on delta [degrees] SuperB PEP-II, KEKBSuper B Factory 10/2011

29. 29 29 Babar TM and © Nelvana Projections for  +  - Effective number of tagged events Error on sine amplitude PEP-II, KEKBSuper B Factory 10/2011 SuperB

30. 30 30 Babar TM and © Nelvana Projections for K *  Effective number of tagged events Error on sine amplitude PEP-II, KEKB Super B Factory 10/2011 SuperB

31. 31 31 Babar TM and © Nelvana Conclusions Prospects of a Super B Factory initiative rest on its discovery potential This potential has generated much interest – SLAC Workshops in May & Oct 03 At a 10 ab -1 /year machine, B Unitarity Triangle-related measurements will be brought to exquisite precision There may yet be new physics effects in the classical UT. Theory errors will be reduced, motivating improved measurements At 10-50 ab -1, there is interesting sensitivity to New Physics effect in CPV, rare decays BR’s and kinematic distributions In many cases, SM predictions are sufficiently under control as to motivate these highly sensitive measurements SUSY (meant generically) effects on B and  physics are measurable The pattern of New Physics effects in the flavor sector is diagnostic of the type of SUSY-breaking The prize is new sources of CP violation The Bottom Line: Can SUSY CPV account for the matter-antimatter asymmetry? In some SUSY-breaking models, the answer is Yes.

32. 32 32 Babar TM and © Nelvana The Proceedings of the May/October 2003 Workshop will be ready by the end of July

33. 33 33 Babar TM and © Nelvana EXTRA SLIDES

34. 34 34 Babar TM and © Nelvana The “Snowmass Year” was defined in 1988, based on data from CESR/CLEO: 1 Snowmass Year = 10 7 s The Snowmass Year factor is meant to account for The difference between peak and average luminosity Accelerator and detector uptime Deadtime ……………………….. PEP-II performance April 2003-April 2004 (Dec 03 Trickle LER, Feb 04 Trickle HER) Given the excellent performance of PEP-II/B A B AR and KEK-B/Belle, and the advent of trickle injection, the modern B factory Snowmass Year constant is 1.4 x 10 7 Thus  PEAK = 10 36 cm -2 s -1 is not required to integrate 10 ab -1 /year ; it can be done with 7 x 10 35 cm -2 s -1 The New Snowmass Year

35. 35 35 Babar TM and © Nelvana Unitarity Triangle - Sides e + e - Precision1 Year Precision MeasurementGoal3/ab10/ab50/abLHCbBTeV V ub (inclusive) syst =5-6%2%1.3% V ub (exclusive) (  ) syst=3%5.5%3.2% V cb (inclusive) V cb (exclusive) f b  (B   ) SM:  ~5x10 -7 15% f b  (B   ) SM:  ~5x10 -6 15% f b  (B   ) SM:  ~5x10 -5 3.3  6  V td / V ts (  Theory 12%~3%~1% Measurement precision – sides of the Unitarity Triangle Grinstein and Pirjol

36. 36 36 Babar TM and © Nelvana Unitarity Triangle - Sides e + e - Precision1 Year Precision MeasurementGoal3/ab10/ab50/abLHCbBTeV V ub (inclusive) syst =5-6%2%1.3% V ub (exclusive) (  ) syst=3%5.5%3.2% V cb (inclusive) V cb (exclusive) f b  (B   ) SM:  ~5x10 -7 15% f b  (B   ) SM:  ~5x10 -6 15% f b  (B   ) SM:  ~5x10 -5 3.3  6  V td / V ts (  Theory 12%~3%~1% Measurement precision – sides of the Unitarity Triangle

37. 37 37 Babar TM and © Nelvana Unitarity Triangle - Angles e + e - Precision1 Year Precision Measurement3/ab10/ab50/abLHCbBTeV  S   BR’s  isospin) 6.7  3.9  2.1  --  (  ) (Isospin, Dalitz) (syst  3  )3, 2.3  1.6, 1.3  1, 0.6  2.5  -5  44  (  ) (penguin, isospin) (stat+syst)2.9  1.5  0.72   (J/  K S ) (all modes)0.3  0.17  0.09  0.57  0.49   (B  D (*) K) (ADS)2-3  ~10  <13   (all methods)1.2-2  Measurement precision – angles of the Unitarity Triangle  f (radians)   dt = 2 ab -1   dt = 10 ab -1

38. 38 38 Babar TM and © Nelvana Unitarity Triangle - Angles e + e - Precision1 Year Precision Measurement3/ab10/ab50/abLHCbBTeV  S   BR’s  isospin) 6.7  3.9  2.1  --  (  ) (Isospin, Dalitz) (syst  3  )3, 2.3  1.6, 1.3  1, 0.6  2.5  -5  44  (  ) (penguin, isospin) (stat+syst)2.9  1.5  0.72   (J/  K S ) (all modes)0.3  0.17  0.09  0.57  0.49   (B  D (*) K) (ADS)2-3  ~10  <13   (all methods)1.2-2  Measurement precision – angles of the Unitarity Triangle

39. 39 39 Babar TM and © Nelvana Rare Decays – New Physics – CPV e + e - Precision1 Year Precision MeasurementGoal3/ab10/ab50/abLHCbBTeV S(B0KS)S(B0KS) SM: <0.25%16%8.7%3.9%16 ??7 ?? S(B0KS+KL)S(B0KS+KL) SM: <0.25%-- S(B'Ks )S(B'Ks ) SM: <0.3%5.7%3%1%-- S(BKs)S(BKs) SM: <0.2%8.2%5%4% (?) -- S(BKs)S(BKs) SM: <0.1%11.4%6%4% (?) -- A CP (b  s  SM: <0.5%2.4%1%0.5% (?) -- A CP (B  K*  ) SM: <0.5%0.59%0.32%0.14%-- CPV in mixing (|q/p|) <0.6% -- Measurement precision - rare B decays Theoretical value of the ratio is significantly smaller than in the data: R 00 exp =1.18  0.17 (2.1  = +0.1 in SM

40. 40 40 Babar TM and © Nelvana Rare Decays – New Physics – CPV e + e - Precision1 Year Precision MeasurementGoal3/ab10/ab50/abLHCbBTeV S(B0KS)S(B0KS) SM: <0.25%16%8.7%3.9%16 ??7 ?? S(B0KS+KL)S(B0KS+KL) SM: <0.25%-- S(B'Ks )S(B'Ks ) SM: <0.3%5.7%3%1%-- S(BKs)S(BKs) SM: <0.2%8.2%5%4% (?) -- S(BKs)S(BKs) SM: <0.1%11.4%6%4% (?) -- A CP (b  s  SM: <0.5%2.4%1%0.5% (?) -- A CP (B  K*  ) SM: <0.5%0.59%0.32%0.14%-- CPV in mixing (|q/p|) <0.6% -- Measurement precision - rare B decays

41. 41 41 Babar TM and © Nelvana Rare Decays – New Physics – CPV e + e - Precision1 Year Precision MeasurementGoal3/ab10/ab50/abLHCbBTeV S(B0KS)S(B0KS) SM: <0.25%16%8.7%3.9%16 ??7 ?? S(B0KS+KL)S(B0KS+KL) SM: <0.25%-- S(B'Ks )S(B'Ks ) SM: <0.3%5.7%3%1%-- S(BKs)S(BKs) SM: <0.2%8.2%5%4% (?) -- S(BKs)S(BKs) SM: <0.1%11.4%6%4% (?) -- A CP (b  s  SM: <0.5%2.4%1%0.5% (?) -- A CP (B  K*  ) SM: <0.5%0.59%0.32%0.14%-- CPV in mixing (|q/p|) <0.6% -- Measurement precision - rare B decays

42. 42 42 Babar TM and © Nelvana Rare Decays – New Physics e + e - Precision1 Year Precision MeasurementGoal3/ab10/ab50/abLHCbBTeV  b  d  /  (b  s  -- BD(*))BD(*)) SM:  : 8x10 -3 10.2%5.6%2.5%--   B  s ) (K -,0, K* -,0 ) 1 exclusive mode: ~4x10 -6 ~3  --   B  invisible) <2x10 -6 <1x10 -6 <4x10 -7 --   B d  ) --1-2   B d  ) ----   ) <10 -8 -- Measurement precision – rare decays Masiero, Vempati, Vives

43. 43 43 Babar TM and © Nelvana Rare Decays – New Physics e + e - Precision1 Year Precision MeasurementGoal3/ab10/ab50/abLHCbBTeV  b  d  /  (b  s  -- BD(*))BD(*)) SM:  : 8x10 -3 10.2%5.6%2.5%--   B  s ) (K -,0, K* -,0 ) 1 exclusive mode: ~4x10 -6 ~3  --   B  invisible) <2x10 -6 <1x10 -6 <4x10 -7 --   B d  ) --1-2   B d  ) ----   ) <10 -8 -- Measurement precision – rare decays Belle

44. 44 44 Babar TM and © Nelvana New Physics – K + -, s + - e + e - Precision1 Year Precision Measurement3/ab10/ab50/abLHCbBTeV  (B  K      /  (B  Ke + e - ) ~8%~4%~2% A CP (B  K* l + l - ) (all) (high mass) ~6% ~12% ~3% ~6% ~1.5 ~3% ~1.5% ~3% ~2% ~4% A FB (B  K* l + l - ) : s 0 A FB (B  K* l + l - ) : A CP ~20%~9%9%~12% A FB (B  s l + l - ) : ŝ 0 A FB (B  s l + l - ) : C 9, C 10 ~27% 36-55% ~15% 20-30% ~7% 9-13% Measurement precision - s + - Hiller and Krüger

45. 45 45 Babar TM and © Nelvana New Physics – K + -, s + - e + e - Precision1 Year Precision Measurement3/ab10/ab50/abLHCbBTeV  (B  K      /  (B  Ke + e - ) ~8%~4%~2% A CP (B  K* l + l - ) (all) (high mass) ~6% ~12% ~3% ~6% ~1.5 ~3% ~1.5% ~3% ~2% ~4% A FB (B  K* + - ) : s 0 A FB (B  K* l + l - ) : A CP ~20%~9%9%~12% A FB (B  s l + l - ) : ŝ 0 A FB (B  s l + l - ) : C 9, C 10 ~27% 36-55% ~15% 20-30% ~7% 9-13% Measurement precision - s + -