1. POLITICS IN MEXICO LUIS ESTRADA lmestrad@weber.ucsd.edu Spring quarter 2005

2. Conference USMEX 25 th Anniversary Transition: Electorally driven Transition: Electorally driven No ideology in dispute, just to throw the PRI out of government No ideology in dispute, just to throw the PRI out of government Same politicians under different parties (same ruling elite) Same politicians under different parties (same ruling elite) Democracy still fragile, absence of majorities in the near future Democracy still fragile, absence of majorities in the near future Solution: MORE POLITICS Solution: MORE POLITICS

3. Voting Behavior Sociological theory: social environment Sociological theory: social environment Psychological theory: party identification (emotional attachment) Psychological theory: party identification (emotional attachment) Rational theory: retrospective evaluations of government performance Rational theory: retrospective evaluations of government performance Electoral studies in Mexico: recent and increasingly methodologically sophisticated Electoral studies in Mexico: recent and increasingly methodologically sophisticated Surveys also recent (‘good ones’ since 1997) Surveys also recent (‘good ones’ since 1997)

4. Voting Behavior: Electoral Studies Surveys: individual level data Surveys: individual level data Mostly focused on the determinants of vote choice Mostly focused on the determinants of vote choice Parties’ constituencies are clearly differentiated Parties’ constituencies are clearly differentiated Ad-hoc studies, lack of data does nto give the chance to make long time-series Ad-hoc studies, lack of data does nto give the chance to make long time-series

5. Voting behavior Education Education Age Age Income Income Region Region Participation Participation Party ID Party ID

6. Table 1.11 LENGTH OF STABLE PID IN MEXICO BY PARTY, 2000-2002 Since when do you consider yourself… (Panista, Priista, or Perredista) PRI**PANPRD*All three parties** Less than 2 years527613 Between 2 and 5 years10322720 Between 5 and 10 years14132715 More than 10 years71283752 DK/NR1021 TOTAL100% N 23715151 439 ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05 (Pearson chi 2 test) Source: 1 st and 5 th waves, Mexico 2000-2002 Panel Study

7. COHORT ANALYSIS OF PARTY ID IN MEXICO DISTRIBUTION OF PRIISTAS STATE HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, 1997-2000

8. COHORT ANALYSIS OF PARTY ID IN MEXICO DISTRIBUTION OF INDEPENDENTS STATE HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, 1997-2000

9. Voting Behavior (Domínguez & McCann 1996) Two-step model: First, voters decide whether to support or not the PRI; if not, then they decide ‘ideologically’ between PAN or PRD Two-step model: First, voters decide whether to support or not the PRI; if not, then they decide ‘ideologically’ between PAN or PRD But, there is no ideology! But, there is no ideology! Those voters who do not support the PRI choose the party/candidate that can defeat the PRI with most certainty (Estrada 1999; 2005) Those voters who do not support the PRI choose the party/candidate that can defeat the PRI with most certainty (Estrada 1999; 2005)

10. Voting Behavior (Domínguez 1999) Mexican democratic transition has been slowly, where the voter has been the most important protagonist (1988, 1997, 2000) Mexican democratic transition has been slowly, where the voter has been the most important protagonist (1988, 1997, 2000) Diminishing risk aversion thanks to alternation at the municipal-state-federal levels Diminishing risk aversion thanks to alternation at the municipal-state-federal levels

11. Voting Behavior (Domínguez 2003) Why the PRI lost/PAN won in 2000? If the opposition vote was divided; PRI most partisans; PRI strong support in the states; Zedillo’s approval was high Why the PRI lost/PAN won in 2000? If the opposition vote was divided; PRI most partisans; PRI strong support in the states; Zedillo’s approval was high The 2000 campaign mattered, but only one issue was at discussion: “CHANGE” The 2000 campaign mattered, but only one issue was at discussion: “CHANGE”

12. 1: Weak (unstable) political attachments

13. 2: Less salient social cleavages (all anti-PRI)

14. 3: No ideological cues Individuals hold opinions on issues Individuals hold opinions on issues These opinions, however, are not connected to an ideological debate These opinions, however, are not connected to an ideological debate Parties have been so embedded in the issue of alternation that have left aside their ideological origins and differences-this will not change in the near future Parties have been so embedded in the issue of alternation that have left aside their ideological origins and differences-this will not change in the near future

15. Voting Behavior: Perspectives Candidate-centered campaigns: trivial debates (personality, not issues) Candidate-centered campaigns: trivial debates (personality, not issues) Polarized situation (Presidential regime: “winner takes all” raises the stakes) Polarized situation (Presidential regime: “winner takes all” raises the stakes) No candidate is expected to win more than 40 percent (divided government) No candidate is expected to win more than 40 percent (divided government)