1. IPCC Climate Change Report Moving Towards Consensus Based on real world data

2. IPCC Consensus process is Conservative by Nature

3. IPCC Consensus Evolution FAR: 1990: The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse gas effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more FAR: 1990: The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse gas effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more SAR: 1995: The balance of evidence suggestions a discernible human influence on global climate SAR: 1995: The balance of evidence suggestions a discernible human influence on global climate

4. Getting Stronger TAR: 2001: There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities TAR: 2001: There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities AT4: 2007: Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. AT4: 2007: Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

5. Climate Modeling Evolution

6. Better Grid Resolution

7. Basic Approach Coefficient of doubling CO 2 Coefficient of doubling CO 2

8. Leads to CO 2 Stabilization Scenarios

9. Basic Future Predictions A 2°C rise from today's temperatures produces 30% species extinction A 2°C rise from today's temperatures produces 30% species extinction A 3°C warming will lead to widespread coral deaths A 3°C warming will lead to widespread coral deaths Water availability in the moist tropics and in the high latitudes will increase, but will drop in the semi-arid low latitudes Water availability in the moist tropics and in the high latitudes will increase, but will drop in the semi-arid low latitudes A 1°C warming will decrease agricultural yields in the low-latitudes; 2°C increases yields at high latitudes A 1°C warming will decrease agricultural yields in the low-latitudes; 2°C increases yields at high latitudes

10. Preponderance of Evidence Want to find indicators of climate change Want to find indicators of climate change Requires a) a robust definition and measure of what constitutes climate and b) an instrumental precision sufficient to measure change Requires a) a robust definition and measure of what constitutes climate and b) an instrumental precision sufficient to measure change No one indicator (e.g. smoking gun) exists; aggregate of all data then forms the preponderance No one indicator (e.g. smoking gun) exists; aggregate of all data then forms the preponderance

11. Reinforced with 2D Representation

12. Winter Signal is Strongest

13. Central Europe Summer Signal Huge statistical signal via baseline/area test Huge statistical signal via baseline/area test

14. Record Events depend on wave form evolution

15. Global Aerosols – leads to dimming Mostly Industrial; African Source is pyrogenic and biogenic in nature (drought related)

16. Convolution of positive and negative forcings are what we observe. GHG produces the net positive here

17. And all is superimposed on El Nino Cycle

18. Putting it altogether

19. Other indicators Sea Ice Glacial retreats and glacial mass balance Permafrost Droughts Water vapor feedback Cloud cover Ocean wave heights Sea surface temperature anamolies

20. Sea Ice – opening of the NW Passage 2006 2007

21. Glacial Retreat and Mass Balance 1941 - 2005

22. Wholesale Change in Mass Balance

23. Permafrost indicators

24. Summary of the Cyrosphere (frozen land) observations

25. Droughts

26. Water vapor increases?

27. Cloud Cover Extremely difficult to really measure with any accuracy Extant data are inconclusive and noisy

28. Wave height data shows something!

29. Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Response Its important to realize that virtually all of the extra (heat) flux goes into the oceans

30. Big reservoir of heat 0.1 degree C increase transferred (instantly) to the atmosphere produces 100 degree C increase. Ocean circulation and redistribution of excess heat is (fortunately) a slow process But that is where the “pipeline” warming is even if CO 2 was stablized today!

31. Sea Level Rising Sea Level measured at San Francisco

32. Known SST oscillations increasing in amplitude North Atlantic Oscillation (notice the post 1995 slope):

33. Future predictions remain uncertain

34. Physics of Atmospheric Energy Transport is difficult Potential energy Internal energy Kinetic energy Latent heat Latitude dependent; vertical dependence

35. Complete Feedback Models too Difficult to reliably construct

37. Source of Uncertainties  Roles of clouds and aerosols in radiative transfer models? (e.g. scattering!)  Role of tropical convection and the water vapor feedback loop?  How well do observations constrain the input climate parameters?  How to weight the inputs for best fit statistical model?  Contributions of other greenhouse gases specifically methane from permafrost release

38. Global Warming Potential TH = Time Horizon (20 or 100 years) A x = increased forcing from X (Watts m^2 kg) x(t) = decay following some hypothetical instantaneous release of X Denominator is relevant quantities for CO 2 Nominal value for Methane is 21

39. Do Tipping Points Exist in Climate? Does the system have critical phenomena? Or do the various and somewhat unknown feedback mechanisms serve to counter this?

40. The Next Level of Physics in Climate Science More strongly incorporates the role of various feedbacks particularly water vapor Identifying critical points (or lack thereof) is essential in future models Improved modeling of aerosols and their scattering properties Improved modeling of tropical convection to better understand ocean/atmosphere heat exchange