3. 3 2008 Post-Election Presentation Heading into the election, Republicans faced a very difficult political environment with all the key national barometers in the dumps. Presidential Job Approval National Generic Ballot Data From National Exit Polls Republican Party Image

4. 4 2008 Post-Election Presentation 48% 52% 56% 46% 43% 44% 42% 44% 38% 36% 35% 33% 38% 39% 36% 37% 47% Sept. 22 2008 Oct. 05 2008 Oct. 20 2008 Sept. 22 2008 Oct. 05 2008 Oct. 20 2008 Sept. 22 2008 Oct. 05 2008 Oct. 20 2008 It was a difficult Fall for the McCain campaign. Obama’s image improved, McCain’s stayed flat, and Palin’s fell. Barack Obama: ImageJohn McCain: ImageSarah Palin: Image PosNegPosNegPosNegPosNegPosNegPosNegPosNegPosNegPosNeg Data from a NBC/WSJ national poll of 1,159 Registered Voters conducted October 17-20, 2008

5. 5 2008 Post-Election Presentation 46% 43% 44% 42% 44% 52% 54% 50% 51% 55% 51% 53% RasmussenReutersFOXNBC/WSJGallupCBSABC/WP And all data pointed to an Obama win. JMBOJMBOJMBOJMBOJMBOJMBOJMBO If the election for President and Vice President were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: John McCain and Sarah Palin, Republicans...and... Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Democrats All data is from the week leading up to the 2008 election

7. 7 2008 Post-Election Presentation 18% 24% 33% 2000200220042008 Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Gore Bush Gore Percent Voting Early20002004 54% 50% 43% 49% 45% 49% 56% 50% Voted Early Election Day Voted Early Election Day Bush Kerry BushKerry McCain Obama McCainObama Early voting spiked and provided Obama with a comfortable margin.

8. 8 2008 Post-Election Presentation 28% 17% 6% 9% 36% 51% 52% 67% 59% 19921996200020042008 Election day/Last few days before the electionBefore September Now, some people decide early in a campaign how they will vote. Others make their decisions just before the election. When would you say you made your FINAL decision on which candidate you were going to vote for in the election for President? Leaving few late deciders for a McCain comeback.

9. 9 2008 Post-Election Presentation While younger voters and first time voters remained consistent with previous elections… 17% 9% 17% 11% 18% 11% 18-29 yrs old First Time Voters 200020042008

10. 10 2008 Post-Election Presentation 12% 13% 10% 15% 17% 19% 22% 19801984198819921996200020042008 % Of African American & Hispanic Voters AA/Hisp. …the racial make-up of the electorate is changing. AA/Hisp. Data from CNN Exit Polls

11. 11 2008 Post-Election Presentation 32% 4% 31% 30% 66% 95% 67% 69% 18-29 yrs old African- Americans HispanicsFirst Time Voters McCainObama * National Exit Poll Data Obama’s advantages with these four groups were essential to his big victory.

12. 12 2008 Post-Election Presentation 9% 11% 4% 90% 88% 95% African Americans (10%) African Americans (11%) African Americans (13%) Bush African Americans turned out in record numbers, making Obama their nearly unanimous choice. Gore BushKerryMcCainObama Presidential Vote Among African Americans 200020042008 -81%-77%-91% Data from CNN Exit Polls

13. 13 2008 Post-Election Presentation 12% 8% 14% 5% 13% 4% 87% 92% 85% 95% 86% 96% Afr. Am. (21%) 2004 Afr. Am. (20%) 2008 Afr. Am. (26%) 2004 Afr. Am. (23%) 2008 Afr. Am. (12%) 2004 Afr. Am. (13%) 2008 G.W. Obama’s increased margins among AA’s helped flip Southeastern states. Presidential Vote Among African Americans J.K.J.M.B.O.G.W.J.K.J.M.B.O.G.W.J.K.J.M.B.O. VirginiaNorth CarolinaFlorida Data from CNN Exit Polls

14. 14 2008 Post-Election Presentation 35% 44% 32% 62% 53% 66% Hispanics (7%) Hispanics (6%) Hispanics (8%) Bush Two-thirds of Hispanics supported Obama. Gore BushKerryMcCainObama Presidential Vote Among Hispanics 200020042008 -27%-9%-34% Data from CNN Exit Polls

15. 15 2008 Post-Election Presentation 30% 38% 44% 30% 39% 22% 68% 60% 56% 69% 60% 76% Hispanic (8%) 2004 Hispanic (19%) 2008 Hispanic (32%) 2004 Hispanic (41%) 2008 Hispanic (10%) 2004 Hispanic (15%) 2008 G.W. His margins made a huge difference in the Southwest. Presidential Vote Among Hispanics J.K.J.M.B.O.G.W.J.K.J.M.B.O.G.W.J.K.J.M.B.O. ColoradoNew MexicoNevada Data from CNN Exit Polls

16. 16 2008 Post-Election Presentation 46% 45% 32% 48% 54% 66% 18-29 Years (17%) 18-29 Years (17%) 18-29 Years (18%) Bush As did two-thirds of young voters. Gore BushKerryMcCainObama Presidential Vote Among 18-29 Year Olds 200020042008 -2%-9%-34% Data from CNN Exit Polls

17. 17 2008 Post-Election Presentation 46% 39% 43% 26% 41% 37% 54% 60% 56% 74% 58% 61% 18-29 Yrs (17%) 2004 18-29 Yrs (21%) 2008 18-29 Yrs (14%) 2004 18-29 Yrs (18%) 2008 18-29 Yrs (17%) 2004 18-29 Yrs (15%) 2008 G.W. The Southeast – Obama significantly increased his margins among young voters. Presidential Vote Among 18-29 Year Olds J.K.J.M.B.O.G.W.J.K.J.M.B.O.G.W.J.K.J.M.B.O. VirginiaNorth CarolinaFlorida Data from CNN Exit Polls

18. 18 2008 Post-Election Presentation 43% 46% 31% 52% 53% 68% First-Time Voters (9%) First-Time Voters (11%) First-Time Voters (11%) Bush And, Obama overwhelmingly won with first-time voters. Gore BushKerryMcCainObama Presidential Vote Among First-Time Voters -9%-7%-37% 200020042008 Data from CNN Exit Polls

19. 19 2008 Post-Election Presentation 41% 43% 44% 40% 38% 37% 20042005200620072008 POS’ National Merge Data NBC/WSJ National Data Party Identification Figures GOP erosion complicated the electoral math. DEM GOP 40% 43% 47% 38% 36% 34% 35% March 2004 Late October 2006 March 2007 March 2008 DEM GOP 45% 35% November 2008

20. 20 2008 Post-Election Presentation 35% 37% 32% 37% 38% 40% 39% 37% 39% 198819921996200020042008 Party ID GOPDEM The Democratic advantage at the polls was unprecedented in recent years. GOPDEMGOPDEMGOPDEM GOPDEMGOPDEM -2%-3%-5%-4%-0--7% Data from CNN Exit Polls

21. 21 2008 Post-Election Presentation State 2004 Result 2008 Result 2004 Party ID (GOP-Dem) 2008 Party ID (GOP-Dem) COBushObama111 FLBushObama4-3 INBushObama145 IAKerryObama2 MIKerryObama-5-12 MNKerryObama-3-4 MOBushMcCain1-6 MTBushMcCain70 NVBushObama4-8 NHKerryObama7-2 NMBushObama-7-16 NCBushObama1-11 OHBushObama5-8 PAKerryObama-2-7 VABushObama4-6 WVBushMcCain-18-14 WIKerryObama3-6 There were big swings in the battleground states.

22. 22 2008 Post-Election Presentation 2008 Pres. Results 2004 Pres. Results Red states turned blue.

23. 23 2008 Post-Election Presentation Both sides consolidated their partisans.

24. 24 2008 Post-Election Presentation Obama won the middle by a very wide margin. 48% 44% 45% 39% 49% 52% 54% 60% Ind Mod Bush/McCainKerry/Obama * National Exit Poll Data Among Independents Among Moderates

26. 26 2008 Post-Election Presentation A new “progressive” era? Not exactly… this is still a center-right country.

27. 27 2008 Post-Election Presentation Let’s remember what’s this race was really about.

28. 28 2008 Post-Election Presentation Job Approval Avg. Loss 60+ 0 50-59-12 Under 50-41 President's Party Performance Presidential Job Approval vs. Midterm Results Since 1962 (Gallup/POS Polls & National Journal) Looking to 2010…pay attention to Obama’s approval rating. 74% 49% 57% 47% 52% 43% 63% 58% 46% 66% 63% 42% 196219661970197419781982198619901994 1998 2002 2006 -4 -47 -12 -48 -15 -26 -8 -52 55 -30

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