1. CHINA: Class 1

3. China’s development path q A socialist development path q economic development triggered by central planning and transfer of surplus q uneven development q industry favored over agriculture q uneven spurts over time

4. Policy Approaches q Mobilizational collectivism: stressing class struggle, mobilizing the masses, state-centered accumulation, egalitarian distribution, collective production, elimination of the market, household, traditional values q Less doctrinaire, more flexible approach

5. Mobilizational Collectivism Reform Flexible 1955 1976 Time Line of Development Strategies

6. Mid-1950s--mid-1970s mobilizational collectivism 1. Rural collectivization drive of 1955-56 q Initial vision: gradual 15 year process q Reality: implemented imposed collectivization in 1 year q 88% of rural households organized into collectives (average of 200 households)

7. Why the rush??? q Rationale offered: to counter class polarization trends q Reality: q limited evidence to support q permitted transfer of surplus to the state for reinvestment in industrial sector

8. 2. Great Leap Forward (1958-60) q Reorganization of collectives into communes averaging 5,000 households q women mobilized for farmwork q men transferred to rural industries q off-season labor mobilized for rural infrastructure work

9. 3. Cultural Revolution (Dazhai movement) 1966- mid 70s q Goal is elimination of traditional values q anti-materialist q anti-individual q anti-elitism

10. Economic Performance

11. Debate regarding performance q Position A: Growth is an inappropriate indicator. Equity was the primary concern q Position B: The poorest were hurt worst by economic setbacks

12. Example. Great Leap Forward (1958-62) q A demographic catastrophe q How do we know? q Calculate actual mortality for the period q calculate expected mortality under previous conditions q Difference = EXCESS DEATHS q Order of magnitude: 25-30 million excess deaths

13. Explanation for demographic catastrophe q 1. Establish the existence and magnitude of food shortage q 2. Identify the factors responsible for food shortage

14. Food shortage

15. Causes of food shortages 1. Agricultural Policy Problems –hasty communalization beyond organizational capacities –weakening of private incentives –emphasis on non-agricultural activities leads to neglect of harvest –“winds of exaggeration” lead to excessive government procurement –conviction of cadres that peasants were hoarding food –promotion of bizarre agricultural practices

16. Causes of food shortage (cont.) Urbanization policy International trade policy Natural disasters Agricultural policy problems Famine Excess deaths