1. Cross-national Differences in Public Consent to Divorce Effects of Cultural, Structural and Individual Factors Dr. John Gelissen Department of Methodology and Statistics Tilburg University The Netherlands

2. Socrates Programme 20062 Outline Introduction & Research Question Introduction & Research Question Hypotheses Hypotheses Data & Methods Data & Methods Results Results Conclusions Conclusions

3. Socrates Programme 20063 Introduction & Research Question Family: ‘the bedrock of society’ Family: ‘the bedrock of society’ Challenges to welfare states: Challenges to welfare states: 1. Female employment 2. Family instability

4. Socrates Programme 20064 Introduction & Research Question Differences in family values and, consequently, demographic behavior between countries Differences in family values and, consequently, demographic behavior between countries To what extent are individuals tolerant of divorce, and how can differences in tolerance about divorce be explained? To what extent are individuals tolerant of divorce, and how can differences in tolerance about divorce be explained?

5. Socrates Programme 20065 Hypotheses (I) Contextual characteristics: Contextual characteristics: 1. Incidence of divorce 2. Catholicism 3. Church attendance 4. De-familialisation: ‘de-fam’ (welfare regimes)

6. Socrates Programme 20066 Grouping of countries: why? 1. Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden 2. Austria, Belgium, France, UK, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Germany, Luxembourg, The Netherlands 3. Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain 4. Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia 5. Belarus, Bulgaria, Romania, Russia, Ukraine

7. Socrates Programme 20067 Hypotheses (II) Individual-level characteristics: Individual-level characteristics: 1. Gender 2. Age 3. Employment status 4. Experienced divorce 5. Family composition 6. Church attendance & denomination 7. Educational attainment

8. Socrates Programme 20068 Data & Method Data Data European Values Survey 1999/2000 European Values Survey 1999/2000 33 Eastern and Western European countries 33 Eastern and Western European countries Dependent variable: ‘do you think divorce can always be justified, never be justified, or somewhere in between’ (1 = never – 10 = always) Dependent variable: ‘do you think divorce can always be justified, never be justified, or somewhere in between’ (1 = never – 10 = always) Method: Method: Regression analysis Regression analysis

9. Socrates Programme 20069 Results (aggregate-level analysis) Country BEL UKR SLO LUX RUS GR CRO BUL ROM HU SLV CZ POL LIT LAT EST IR NIR IC FI SW DK B NL PT SP I AUS EG WG UK FR Average level of public approval of divorce 9 8 7 6 5 4 3

10. Socrates Programme 200610 Linear relationship between public approval of divorce and the divorce rate.

11. Socrates Programme 200611 Non-linear relationship between public approval of divorce and the divorce rate.

12. Socrates Programme 200612 Relationship between Church attendance and public approval of divorce.

13. Socrates Programme 200613 Relationship between the % Catholics and public approval of divorce.

14. Socrates Programme 200614 Public approval of divorce, across welfare regimes.

15. Socrates Programme 200615 General findings: individual effects Sex Women more tolerant than men Cohort Recent cohorts more tolerant than older cohorts Employment status Working persons & students more tolerant than non-working persons Living in couple relationship Single persons more tolerant than cohabiting/married persons Ever divorced Ever divorced persons more tolerant than never divorced persons Child status No differences Church attendance Church going persons less tolerant than non-church going individuals Denomination Religious persons less tolerant than non- religious persons Educational attainment Higher educated persons more tolerant than less educated persons

16. Socrates Programme 200616 Contextual-level effects (controlled for individual-level effects) Non-linear effect of divorce rate Non-linear effect of divorce rate No effect of % Church attendance No effect of % Church attendance No effect of % Catholics No effect of % Catholics Differences between welfare regimes, but controlled for other contextual characteristics, some differences disappear. Differences between welfare regimes, but controlled for other contextual characteristics, some differences disappear.

17. Socrates Programme 200617 Conclusions Contextual level: Contextual level: Public permissiveness of divorce is non-linearly related to the incidence of divorce Public permissiveness of divorce is non-linearly related to the incidence of divorce Church attendance matters because the populations differ with respect to individual church attendance Church attendance matters because the populations differ with respect to individual church attendance Differences between welfare regimes are rather differences between divorce regimes Differences between welfare regimes are rather differences between divorce regimes Post-communist countries remain relatively intolerant towards divorce Post-communist countries remain relatively intolerant towards divorce

18. Socrates Programme 200618 Conclusions Individual level: Individual level: Most effects in accordance with findings from prior studies Most effects in accordance with findings from prior studies Some shortcomings/points for discussion Some shortcomings/points for discussion One-item measurement of approval of divorce One-item measurement of approval of divorce Cross-sectional design Cross-sectional design Percentage Catholics does not matter Percentage Catholics does not matter Intolerance about divorce in post-communist countries Intolerance about divorce in post-communist countries

19. Socrates Programme 200619 Questions for afternoon discussion 1. Do you feel it should be made easy for people to divorce (e.g. The Netherlands have a ‘flash-divorce’ possibility) 2. Will individualization lead to more tolerance towards divorce everywhere, even in countries where there is strong opposition against divorce right now? 3. Taking the situation in your country, what is the role of the state and the Church in matters of divorce, and what ought to be their role according to you? 4. Do you think that the European Union should concern itself with matters of divorce, e.g. by European laws? Why (not)? 5. Do you think it will even be possible to develop European divorce legislation, given the large differences between European countries?