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2 Current Stock Facts (NUE) Stock Price 55.62 Market Capitalization 8.7B Beta1.64 EPS 7.02 DPS 0.6 P/E 6.3% Dividend Yield 1.1% Dividend Payout Ratio 9% Required Rate of Return14.8% ROE 43.8% Forecasted Growth Rate 39.8%
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3 Company Profile Steel manufacturing company Divided into two segments –Steel mills 17 Mills –Steel products 4 Divisions
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4 47 Operating Facilities in 15 states 11,000 employees generated $11.4 billion in 2004 sales and 19.5 million tons of 2004 steel shipments Corporate Staff of about 60 Employees Largest recycler in the United States Nucor Overview
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5 (ladle through hot band) Energy & Emissions (ladle through hot band) 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 GGE (t CO2 equiv/t).02.12.22 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 Energy Consumed (GJ/t).2 1.0 1.7
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6 Vulcraft (Joist/Deck - 7) Bar Mill Group (9) Sheet Mill Group (4) Structural Mills (2) Plate Mill (2) Cold Finish Group (4) Building Systems Group (3) Fastener Division (1) Nucor – North America’s largest steel producer in 2004. Nucon (2) Key Facilities: Nucor Overview
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7 Diversified Product Mix 2004 Sales Tons
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8 Diversified Product Mix End Use Markets
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9 Management Ceo – Daniel R. DiMicco 3-tiered management –G.M., Department M., Supervisor –Performance based compensation
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10 Nucor’s Growth Strategy Nucor is in a position of strength to execute our cyclical growth strategy--- 1.Optimize existing operations 2. Use innovation to capitalize on new technologies 3. Pursue strategic acquisitions 4. Grow globally through joint ventures
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11 Trend Analysis Graph NUE Industry S&P
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12 EPS Estimates EPS Trends Curr.Qtr. 9/05 Next Qtr 12/05 Curr. Yr. 12/05 Next Yr. 12/06 Curr. Est.1.691.657.535.68 7 Days1.691.657.535.69 30 Days1.711.607.545.58 60 Days1.721.607.545.58 90 Days1.801.587.485.55
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13 Industry Comparison AKSAKS = AK Steel Holding Corp. CMCCMC = Commercial Metals Co. XX = United States Steel Corp. IndustryIndustry = Steel & Iron NUEAKSCMCXIndustry Market Cap:8.75B793.79M1.78B4.33B 890.66M Employees:10,6008,40010,60448,000 3.43K Qtrly Rev Growth (yoy):13.90%10.90%22.70%3.90% 51.60% Revenue (ttm):12.80B5.65B6.32B14.96B 1.43B Gross Margin (ttm):21.80%13.87%13.54%20.75% 19.43% EBITDA (ttm):2.71B588.00M506.21M2.44B 255.26M Oper Margins (ttm):18.24%6.75%6.82%13.34% 11.76% Net Income (ttm):1.43B94.90M249.40M1.50B 105.54M EPS (ttm):8.9350.4414.04211.651 3.42 P/E (ttm):6.2716.397.593.25 7.46 PEG (5 yr expected):0.740.641.362.70 1.10 P/S (ttm):0.670.140.270.29 0.59
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14 Fundamental Valuation Future Div. w/ Constant Growth –.06 (1+.3985) =.0839 Value using Constant Growth –.0839/ (.08-.3985) = -.26 Est. of Growth Rate –(1-.09).4379 =.3985
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15 Summary: Pros Steel prices bottomed in mid-2005 at a level that should allow Nucor to comfortably generate profits. Both the company and the industry scaled back production and avoided an outright collapse of the market. As one of the three big boys in the domestic steel industry, Nucor can dictate pricing terms. For instance, the company was able to pass on a scrap surcharge in late 2003 and 2004. Nucor has a history of exiting difficult periods much stronger than going in, and this time is no different. The firm recently increased capacity for sheet (30%) and bar (50%) steel at a fraction of the cost to build. Nucor's patented Castrip technology may revolutionize the industry for the second time in 15 years. If the process becomes commercially viable, royalty payments will provide a future income stream.
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16 Summary: Cons Brazil has the best ore in the world, cheap energy, and an excellent transportation infrastructure, giving Brazilian producers huge advantages over U.S. minimills. Many of Nucor's foreign rivals are unencumbered by environmental regulations, are subsidized by their governments, and have much lower labor costs. Much of Nucor's production is sold in the depressed nonresidential-construction market. With U.S. capacity utilization standing in the mid- 70s, expansion of this market seems far off.
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17 Recommendation BUY Diversified Product Mix Technological Innovation Low-cost Position Industry Leader Negatively correlated = -.5
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