2. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation Is CMMI High Maturity Worth the Investment? Southern California SPIN 2 February 2007 Rick Hefner, Ph.D. Director, Process Management Northrop Grumman Corporation

3. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 2 Background  Until recently, Level 3 was considered the industry standard  Now, several organizations have achieved high maturity and are touting its benefits  To others, high maturity (Levels 4 & 5) is perceived as expensive and of little benefit Do high maturity processes cost more? Is Level 4 and 5 worth the effort?

4. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 3 Causal Analysis and Resolution Organizational Innovation and Deployment 5 Optimizing 4 Quantitatively Managed 3 Defined 2 Managed Quantitative Project Management Organizational Process Performance Requirements Development Technical Solution Product Integration Verification Validation Organizational Process Focus Organizational Process Definition Organizational Training Risk Management Integrated Project Management (for IPPD*) Integrated Teaming* Integrated Supplier Management** Decision Analysis and Resolution Organizational Environment for Integration* Requirements Management Project Planning Project Monitoring and Control Supplier Agreement Management Measurement and Analysis Process and Product Quality Assurance Configuration Management 1 Performed Process AreasLevel Work proactively managed, organizational standard processes Improving, addressing common causes of variation Quantitatively managed, eliminating special causes of variation Work planned and tracked (reactively managed) Work performed, but in an ad hoc fashion CMMI Levels

5. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 4 The Project Manager’s Dilemma at Level 3 I want to use the organization’s standard process, but… … Does it’s performance and quality meet my customer’s expectations? … If not, how should I tailor the process?

6. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 5 CMMI Level 4  Organizational Process Performance  Establishes a quantitative understanding of the performance of the organization’s set of standard processes  Provides process performance data, baselines, and models to quantitatively manage the organization’s projects  Quantitative Project Management  Quantitatively manage the project’s defined process to achieve the project’s established quality and process-performance objectives. project’s defined process customer and project objectives measurement repository organizational standard process organizational performance data & models tailoring project performance Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation

7. 6 Exercise – What is Quantitative Management?  Suppose your project conducted several peer reviews of similar code, and analyzed the results  Mean = 7.8 defects/KSLOC  +3σ = 11.60 defects/KSLOC  -3σ = 4.001 defects/KSLOC  What would you expect the next peer review to produce in terms of defects/ KSLOC?  What would you think if a review resulted in 10 defects/KSLOC?  3 defects/KSLOC?  How would this be useful to your project/ organization?  Was the review effective?  Was the process different?  Is the product different?

8. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 7 Exercise – What is Required for Quantitative Management?  What is needed to develop the statistical characterization of a process?  The process has to be stable (predictable)  Process must be consistently performed  Complex processes may need to be stratified (separated into simpler processes)  There has to be enough data points to statistically characterize the process  Processes must occur frequently within a similar context (project or organization)

9. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 8 Typical Choices in Industry  Most customers care about:  Delivered defects  Cost and schedule  So organizations try to predict:  Defects found throughout the lifecycle  Effectiveness of peer reviews, testing  Cost achieved/actual (Cost Performance Index – CPI)  Schedule achieved/actual (Schedule Performance Index – SPI) Process performance Process measures (e.g., effectiveness, efficiency, speed) Product measures (e.g., quality, defect density).

10. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 9 What Can a Level 4 Project/Organization Do?  Determine whether processes are behaving consistently or have stable trends (i.e., are predictable)  Identify processes where the performance is within natural bounds that are consistent across process implementation teams  Establish criteria for identifying whether a process or process element should be statistically managed, and determine pertinent measures and analytic techniques to be used in such management  Identify processes that show unusual (e.g., sporadic or unpredictable) behavior  Identify any aspects of the processes that can be improved in the organization's set of standard processes  Identify the implementation of a process which performs best

11. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 10 What Drives the Effectiveness of Level 4? project’s defined process customer and project objectives measurement repository organizational standard process organizational performance data & models tailoring project performance Comparable projects? Enough measures to stratify/analyze the data? Enough data points? How insightful/useful are the baselines and models? How detailed are the standard processes? What tailoring is allowed? Stable processes? Clean data? Does the organization’s process fit the objectives? How much tailoring? Does the project follow its process?

12. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 11 Level 5 Level 3 What Does Level 5 Add to the Organization? Organizational Process Focus  Goals are qualitative (e.g., get better)  The effects of the improvements are not estimated or measured Organizational Innovation & Deployment  Goals are quantitative (e.g., reduce variation by X%, reduce mean by Y%)  Incremental improvements – eliminate special causes of variation  Innovative improvements - cause a major shift in process capability  Potential improvements are analyzed to estimate costs and impacts (benefits)  Improvements are piloted to ensure success  Improvements are measured in terms of variation and mean

13. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 12 Peer Reviews – Improving the Process  Reduce the variation  Train people on the process  Create procedures/checklists  Strengthen process audits  Increase the effectiveness (increase the mean)  Train people  Create checklists  Reduce waste and re-work  Replicate best practices from other projects

14. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 13 What Does Level 5 Add to the Project?  Causal Analysis & Resolution  Identify and analyze causes of defects and other problems  Take specific actions to remove the causes  The project can then take actions to prevent the occurrence of those types of defects and problems in the future  Many projects implement Causal Analysis & Resolution at Level 4  Identify and eliminate special cause variations to stabilize the process

15. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 14 How Does Level 4 & 5 Benefit the Customer?  Organizational process performance  More accurate estimates  Quantitative project management  Problem behaviors are recognized faster, enabling quicker resolution  Organizational innovation and deployment  The project benefits from improvements found and proven on other projects  Causal analysis  The project fixes the source of defects to prevent future defects Level 5 reduces costs and improves quality (so we implement it on all projects) Reference: How Does High Maturity Benefit the Customer?, R. Hefner, Systems & Software Technology Conference, 2005

16. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 15 Two Complementary Approaches to Process Improvement Data-Driven (e.g., Lean Six Sigma)  Clarify what your customer wants (Voice of Customer)  Critical to Quality (CTQs)  Determine what your processes can do (Voice of Process)  Statistical Process Control  Identify and prioritize improvement opportunities  Causal analysis of data  Determine where your customers/competitors are going (Voice of Business)  Design for Six Sigma Model-Driven (e.g., CMM, CMMI)  Determine the industry best practice  Benchmarking, models  Compare your current practices to the model  Appraisal, education  Identify and prioritize improvement opportunities  Implementation  Institutionalization  Look for ways to optimize the processes

17. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 16 Side effects of register usage Can’t keep track Poor documentation Register allocation defect Incorrect processor register usage Lack of processor knowledge Can’t isolate Pass 1 architecture Process knowledge UCL 1 LCL 1 UCL 2 LCL 2 12345677C8B 8C8D8F20212223 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Actual Expected 95% limits UCL _X_X Process variation Process performance Improve & ControlStabilize Predict Lean Six Sigma Provides the Needed Tools to Implement CMMI High Maturity Level 4  Understand project’s process capabilities based on process performance baselines  Control process variation (remove “assignable causes”)  Predict results using process performance models  Manage to achieve goals Level 5  Base improvement goals on future business needs  Eliminate problem and defect causes (“common causes”)  Select, predict, and measure improvements to change the process performance baselines - s hift the mean; tighten the variance  Manage change

18. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 17 Barriers and Challenges  Engineering process measurements are often difficult to analyze  Inherent process variations when human creativity is involved  Dirty (or no) data  Vague measurement definitions, human recording errors  Infrequent measurements  Non-normal data  Need for stratification/aggregation  Must demonstrate the value of quantitative data to managers  Management style - reactive vs. proactive vs. quantitative  Less value in a chaotic environment  Must involve customers

19. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 18 Launch 1 Intro to Quantitative Management Launch 2 Statistical Process Control Launch 4 CMMI Level 5 (OID &CAR) Collect relevant project historical data, review it and perform initial “clean up” Collect data from project subprocesses and put on SPC charts Complete project profile Review business issues for clarity Identify Quantitative Measurement Plan data Measure progress against the Level 4/5 plan tasks Finish building models Begin tracking to models Draft Quantitative Measurement Plan Draft QPM evidence Measure progress against the Level 4/5 plan tasks Develop project CAR plan Start project CAR activities Submit improvements to support OID (when applicable) Measure progress against the Level 4/5 plan tasks Launch 3 Quantitative Monitoring & Management Finalize project goals Obtain measurement data for the subprocesses the project will put under SPC analysis Become familiar with Northrop Grumman Mission Systems QPM process Definition of related six sigma project(s) Incorporate and measure progress against the Level 4/5 plan tasks Northrop Grumman Launch Workshop Strategy STM 925.1-Exec, Rev 01, 05-05-04 Launch 0 Executive Overview Prerequisite 2 week Six Sigma Green Belt training

20. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 19 Lessons Learned (1 of 2) Based on over 35 Northrop Grumman CMMI Level 5 organizations 1)Level 3 metrics, measurement processes, and goal setting are generally inadequate for Levels 4 and 5  Better definitions of the measures  Lower level metrics of lower level subprocesses  Stratifying the data properly 2)When operating at Level 3, it is difficult to predict the measurement improvements needed  Trying to understand and stabilize the key subprocesses will naturally drive you to the right metrics 3)CMMI and Six Sigma compliment each other  CMMI can yield behaviors without benefit  Six Sigma improvements based solely on data may miss innovative improvements (assumes a local optimum) 4)Six Sigma is an enabler for higher maturity  Focus on data, measurement systems, process improvement  Tying improvements to business goals  Tools and methods support the Level 4/5 analysis tasks

21. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 20 Lessons Learned (2 of 2) 5)Projects have different quality and process performance needs, and should select different subprocesses to quantitatively manage  This will also slow adoption, and complicate the organizational baselines and models 6)Training the staff as Six Sigma Green Belts has resulted in a change of language and culture  Voice of Customer, data-driven decisions, causal analysis, etc.  Better to use the tools in everyday work than to adopt the “religion” 7)The real ROI comes in institutionalizing local improvements across the wider organization  CMMI establishes the needed mechanisms Having all the tools at Level 5 gives you the insight to manage each project the way the customer needs it to be managed

22. Copyright 2005 Northrop Grumman Corporation 21 References 2006 CMMI Conference  “Using ‘Voice of Customer’ Tools to Advance Organizational Innovation and Deployment”, Don Corpron  “Making OID Effective,” Diane Mizukami  “Statistical Control of System and Software Design Activities, “ Dr. Richard Welch and Ms. April King  “Business Value of CMMI Level 5,” Gene Miluk, Lynn Penn, Rick Hefner and Rushby Craig Other Sources  “Squeezing Variation for Profit”, Don Corpron, CMMI Technology Conference and User Group, 2005  “How Does High Maturity Benefit the Customer?,” Rick Hefner, Systems & Software Technology Conference, 2005  “Using a Process Database to Facilitate Transition to Level 4”, Rick Hefner, International Conference on Applications of Software Measurement, 2002  “Business Value and Customer Benefits Derived from High Maturity”, Alan Pflugrad, CMMI Technology Conference and User Group, 2002  http://www.isixsigma.com  High Maturity with Statistics, SEI course CMMI Implementation: Embarking on High Maturity Practices, Shivraj Kanungo, Asha Goyal Measuring the Software Process, William A. Florac, Anita D. Carleton Metrics and Models in Software Quality Engineering, Stephen H. Kan Understanding Variation: The Key to Managing Chaos, Donald J. Wheeler