1. Changing Land Use: Supplementary Material to Lesson 5 of the “East Africa Climate Change Curriculum Unit” Available at http://www.eaclipse.msu.edu/teaching_materials.html Lesson 5 by Barbara Naess. PowerPoint based on materials by Jennifer M. Olson.http://www.eaclipse.msu.edu/teaching_materials.html The Eaclipse Project is supported by National Science Foundation Award No. BCS/CNH 0709671. http://eaclipse.msu.edu 1 © 2010 Michigan State University Board of Trustees

2. Lesson 5: Changing Land Use Supplementary Material 2

3. In this lesson you will Look at historical changes in land use in Southeast Michigan Make predictions about future land cover changes in East Africa Learn how scientists measure and predict changes in land use and vegetation Discuss the effects of projected land use changes in the East African savanna 3

4. Causes of Climate Change Greenhouse gases due to burning of fossil fuels and other pollution Decreased ground cover/vegetation due to changes in land use 4

5. Changes in Ground Cover Decreased vegetation due to changes in land use can lead to –More sunlight reflecting from the ground –Less soil moisture; greater evaporation –Smoother surface, windier –Less CO 2 absorbed by vegetation 5 Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admininstration: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extremes/2002/april/extremes0402.html

6. Changing Land Use How is land use related to vegetation? When people change how they use the land, the vegetation changes Forests are cut for farmland, fuel, building materials, and development (deforestation) Natural areas or farms are replaced by housing and commercial development (urbanization) Some farming and grazing practices can lead to soil erosion, or in extreme cases, desertification 6

7. 7 Land Use Changes Photo Credit: Jennifer M. Olson

8. Land use changes can be brought about by Population growth and migration Urbanization Logging People clearing bushland or forests for farming Companies using land for different commercial purposes Governments making policies promoting certain uses over others 8

9. Changing Land Use and Vegetation How are they related to climate change? Less vegetation and ground cover may contribute to climate change, especially at the local level: Less sunlight absorbed by vegetation Smoother surface, windier Less moisture retention; greater evaporation Less CO 2 taken up by vegetation (carbon sequestration) 9

10. Changes in Land Use in Southeast Michigan 10 Source: Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (www.semcog.org)

11. 11 Source: Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (www.semcog.org)

12. 12 Source: Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (www.semcog.org)

13. 13 Source: Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (www.semcog.org)

14. Changes in Land Use and Vegetation 1990-2000 14 Source: Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (www.semcog.org)

15. Land Cover in 2000 in Tanzania 15 Source: Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP), Bryan Pijanowski

16. Discussion Questions How has land use changed in Southeast Michigan in the last 200 years (from map)? How did it change in the ten years from 1990 to 2000 (map and data)? How accurate do you think your predictions might be? What information might be missing? How do you think the changes in land use and vegetation might affect the local and regional climate? 16

17. Projecting Future Changes Scientists take the data they have and graph change over time. They identify the causes of the change, and how those causes will themselves evolve. By understanding how the underlying causes evolve, they can better predict the future. For example, if migration is causing land use change but migration is slowing down, land use change will slow down. 17

18. Are predictions accurate? Predictions may be flawed, because nobody can predict with complete accuracy what will happen to all of the different causes contributing to change, but… Predictions tell us what is likely to happen if we are correct in our assumptions. 18

19. Do predictions always come true? The good news is: If climate change is caused by human activity… People can take actions to reduce, reverse, or adapt to climate change. That’s why it is important to understand how human-climate-land systems work! 19

20. The Climate-Land Interaction Project: Measuring and Predicting Changes in Climate, Land Use, and Vegetation in the East African Savanna 20

21. 21 CLIP Methodology Identify trends in climate Develop a climate model for East Africa using climate and land surface data Develop land use change & crop models Combine climate, land use & crop models to simulate future climate (2050) Compare climate vs. land use effects Identify impacts on o crop yields o savanna vegetation o livestock productivity o livelihoods o diseases

22. 22 Comparing the Relative Importance of the Causes of Climate Change Greenhouse Gases (GHG) from the global scale Land use change from the local to regional scale

23. 23 Land Use Change Land cover in 2000 Land cover in 2050 (projected ) Source: Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP), Bryan Pijanowski

24. 24 Differences in Temperature (RCM) Climate Change (GHG) LCLUC Combined Effects Effects Source: Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP), Nathan Moore et al.

25. 25 Differences in Precipitation (RCM) Climate Change Land Use Change Synergistic Effects (GHG) Effects (LUC) Effects Source: Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP), Nathan Moore et al.

26. 26 Difference in Maize Yields Due to GHG and LUC 2000 to 2050 Green=increase in yields Brown=decline in yields Source: Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP), Gopal Alagarswamy et al.

27. 27

28. 28 Effect of Changing Land Use and Climate on Savanna Vegetation Deforestation, urbanization, expansion of cropland, and overgrazing are changing savanna vegetation and decreasing ground cover Decreased vegetation and ground cover cause less moisture retention Warmer temperatures due to climate change lead to vegetation drying faster and water becoming scarce faster Predictions show: –Crops less productive –Less quality livestock food –More severe droughts –More diseases Photo Credit: Jennifer M. Olson

29. EACLIPSE Research Questions How does savanna vegetation respond to a changing climate? What are the combined effects of land management and climate change on savanna vegetation? Does land management have a large enough impact on savanna vegetation to change the local or regional climate? How are people adapting their livelihood systems in response to climate change? 29

30. In this lesson, you have learned about the final parts of the savanna human-land-climate system loop and saw how changes in land use and vegetation can in turn affect climate change, closing the loop. This science module focused on climate change, vegetation, and land use. The social studies module takes a closer look at the larger social-cultural, political, and economic factors that affect livelihoods and land use.