1. Performance measures Morten Nielsen, CBS, BioCentrum, DTU

2. Performance measures Accuracy of prediction method

3. Evaluation of prediction accuracy A roc =0.5 A roc =0.8 Roc curves TPFP AP AN 1- specificity Sensitivity TNFN

4. Matthews correlation- Threshold of 0.5 False positive True positive True negative False negative

5. Matthews correlation- Threshold of 0.5

6. 59 85

7. Performance measure – Roc curve False positive True positive True negative False negative

8. ThresholdTPFNTP/(TP+FN)FPTNFP/(FP+TN) >0.8 4 10 0.29 1 12 0.08 >0.68 6 0.57 3 10 0.23 >0.411 3 0.79 6 7 0.46 >0.2131 0.93 9 4 0.69 >014 0 1 13 0 1 AUC = 0.5 AUC = 1.0