1. W. P. Carey School of BusinessSlide 1 Economic Forecasting

2. W. P. Carey School of BusinessSlide 2 Questions What does “growth” or “recession” in the economy mean? Why bother to forecast the economy? What are “leading”, “lagging”, and “coincident” indicators? Examples?

3. W. P. Carey School of BusinessSlide 3 Some Important Variables Gross domestic product (GDP) Personal consumer expenditures (PCE) Aka: Consumer spending Capital spending Others …

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7. W. P. Carey School of BusinessSlide 7 Definition: Recession Generally considered to be two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP What is the importance of knowing when a recession starts and stops?

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10. W. P. Carey School of BusinessSlide 10 Another Definition: Slowdown How would you define “economic slowdown”? How does it differ from “recession”? Does it matter if they differ?

11. W. P. Carey School of BusinessSlide 11 Play with Data Use the Excel data provided to discover relationships useful to forecast the economy Be prepared to discuss.

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