1. Fire Forecasts for Florida Jeff Prestemon and Evan Mercer Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service RTP, NC jprestemon@fs.fed.us, emercer@fs.fed.us

2. Objective To evaluate how annual amounts of wildfire in Florida are related to some ecological and socioeconomic variables

3. Approach Use the FPE paper’s area burn statistical model for Florida as the base statistical model –This is an annual county fire model Show a base case (“Business as Usual”) model –Output shown and projected is statewide, annual wildfire amount, 2002-2030. Vary explanatory variables projections to evaluate annual wildfire impacts. –Population growth –Forest loss –Poverty –Police force levels per capita Results are reportable at the county level, if desired.

4. Business As Usual Assumptions: –Forecasts based on Total Acre Model –No further forest loss –Constant population growth (based on 1982- 2001 rate) –Police per capita constant at 2001 levels –Unemployment, poverty set at 2001 levels –Average rate of prescribed fire (1994-2001) Result: –Average area burned Increases at 3.6% per year

5. Accelerated Population Growth Assumptions: –Population grows 0.5% per year faster than observed between 1982 and 2001 –Based on Total Acre Model –No further forest loss –Police per capita constant at 2001 levels –Unemployment, poverty set at 2001 levels –Average rate of prescribed fire (1994- 2001) Result: –Average area burned Increases at 7.9% per year

6. Forest Loss Scenario Assumptions: –Forest loss at 0.5% per year –Forecasts based on Total Acre Model –Constant population growth (based on 1982-2001 rate) –Police per capita constant at 2001 levels –Unemployment, poverty set at 2001 levels –Average rate of prescribed fire (1994- 2001) Result: –Average area burned Increases at 2.5% per year

7. Higher Poverty Scenario Assumptions: –Poverty population grows at 0.5% per year faster than general population –Forecasts based on Total Acre Model –No further forest loss –Constant population growth (based on 1982-2001 rate) –Police per capita constant at 2001 levels –Unemployment set at 2001 levels –Average rate of prescribed fire (1994-2001) Result: –Average area burned Increases at 3.7% per year

8. Higher Police Per Capita Scenario Assumptions: –Police per capita constant increase at 3% per year from 2001 levels (i.e., the 1982- 2001 rate) –Forecasts based on Total Acre Model –No further forest loss –Constant population growth (based on 1982-2001 rate) –Unemployment, poverty set at 2001 levels –Average rate of prescribed fire (1994-2001) Result: –Average area burned decreases by 4.2% per year

9. Summary and Conclusions Our analysis shows high sensitivity to: –Population growth rate, –Forest loss, –Law enforcement Models of arson ignitions find that fire is also highly dependent on –Labor markets, including wages and unemployment –Criminal sanction levels. Accounting for changes in socioeconomic variables is likely to be important for properly modeling aggregate rates of wildfire ignitions and area burned in the southern U.S.