1. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA Overview and Comments on EU-25 pipfruit crop forecasts Dr. Wilhelm Ellinger ZMP, Bonn

2. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 2 Prognosfruit forecast‘s quality evaluation apples 2006 forecast 1000 t Final 1000 t Δ 1000 t Δ%Δ% OM (11)6.6076.651+ 44+ 1 NM (8)2.9783.112+ 134+ 4 Total9.5859.763+ 178+ 2  Quality of forecasts seem to be ok  However, several countries (8) took forecasts for final  Were these really 100% precise???

3. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 3 What was expected one year ago, what happened at the market? 0,4 mln t less in OMS

4. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 4 Moderate carryover of old European crop In 2006 stocks in 6 countries by 78.000 t (27%) lower than in 2005 Taking into account missing countries minus might have been 100.000 t at least

5. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 5 … in spite of ample late S.H. supply Though total imports from S.H. were lowest for years (702.000 t vs. 820.000 t in 2005) imports from July on (surprisingly) exceeded 2005 (mainly South Africa, Chile) Source: Eurostat

6. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 6 …provides for a good start Total supply from old crop (EU, S.H.) from July on at least 50.000 t, probably nearer to 100.000 t lower than in 2005 Picking about 1 week delayed Prices until wk 36 more than 50% above 2005, but lower than in 2004

7. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 7 Concerns: good crops in backgardens Households operating backgardens were more self-sufficient in autumn 2006 Not the only reason for weak demand: consumer prices increased (+2% vs. 04, +13% vs. 05) vs. ´04 - 5% - 5% vs. ´05 - 29% - 6% Hobby gardeners hh without backyard

8. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 8 Concerns: how much will higher consumer prices affect demand (Ex. France)

9. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 9 Concerns: how much will higher consumer prices affect demand (Ex. Germany)

10. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 10 Indeed, consumer react (Ex. France)

11. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 11 Indeed, consumer react (Ex. Germany) Aug/June -4% vs. 04/05 -- 9 % vs. 05/06

12. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 12 EU average Consumption 2006/07 falls to lowest level for years* *) Latest available 12 month/52 wks househould panel data

13. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 13 Rather different reactions on price increase CountryPeriod2006/07 vs. 05/06%) pricevolumeratio DEAug-Jun+ 10,2- 9,1-0,89 ATMay-April+ 19,1- 16,8- 0,88 FRAug-Jun+ 12,3- 8,3- 0,67 UK52 w/e jun17+ 10,7- 3,8- 0,36 NL52 w/e jun17+ 14,9- 3,9- 0,26 ITAug-Apr+ 3,0- 0,6- 0,20 ESAug-May+ 15,0+ 1,2+ 0,08

14. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 14 Concerns: higher imports might compensate for lower crop + 70.000 t

15. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 15 Concerns: EU exports might suffer - 90.000 t

16. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 16 However, increase in trade deficit remained limited in EU-15

17. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 17 Balance even improved for EU-25

18. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 18 Unsatiable Russian market apple imports Season (July/June) Sep-Mar (1000 t)04/0505/0604/0505/0606/07  % % World758715409429537+ 25 EU-159517659117110- 7 NMS19714811680182+ 126 CIS227162155128104- 19 other23922979103141+ 37

19. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 19 Decrease in consumption inevitable (EU-15) Remark: Consumption incl. processing! Consumption according to - Supply balance sheet -3,3% - panel data -4,7%

20. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 20 Result of the shortage: producer prices above 2005/06 (example weekly prices Germany)

21. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 21 Result of the shortage: producer prices above 2005/06 (example seasonal prices Germany)

22. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 22 Prices in S. Europe increased even more (ex.: France)

23. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 23 Prices in S. Europe increased even more (ex.: season av. producer price South of Tyrol)

24. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 24 Forecasts 2007 Hopefully more than to read tea leaves!

25. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 25 Year of extreme weather (I): warm winter/spring induce early blossoming.April 21 May 7

26. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 26 3 frost waves cause much damage in parts of Central Europe April 6 (PL, CZ, SK, parts E/S Germany), apples not yet very susceptible April 20-22 (PL, CZ, SK, E Germany, HU, Niederösterreich) April 30-May 2 (PL, CZ, SK, HU, Niederösterreich)

27. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 27 April 6, min temperature at bottom Mostly green tip stage, critical below -7°C Quelle: wetteronline.de

28. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 28 April 22, min temperature at bottom PL: pears in full blossoming, apples start blossoming, damage in CZ, SK and NE Hungary, too Quelle: wetteronline.de

29. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 29 May 2, min temperature at bottom Cold spell penetrates PL, CZ, SK, N Hungary Quelle: wetteronline.de

30. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 30 The effects of the frost 1.Crop losses between 30 and 70% in NMS (look at the tables in the proceedings) 2.Deformations and skin defects => pro- cessing quality Source: Szabo

31. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 31 No rain during blossoming period Mostly positive: No scab! But low humidity impacted pollination and favoured russetting (Golden)

32. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 32 Heatwave SE Europe in July

33. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 33 Fireblight is expanding CH most affected, but also several Austrian states, Lake of Constance region, South of Baden, Rhone valley (FR), Slovakia, Gerona (ES) Minor impact on current crop than on medium term Source: ACW

34. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 34 Lowest apple crop since ? years PL 1990 812.000 tHU lowest since more than 40 yLT since 2004 CZ since 1998SK lowest since state was founded

35. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 35 Austria: bumper crop Strong fruit set, favourable development of growth (+1/+2 mm) Good internal quality, high Brix Few russetting (ex. Elstar) Hail in north of Styria, but major damage prevented by nets Fireblight widespread Picking 2 weeks earlier

36. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 36 Belgium (I): normal crop Av. yield equals 2006 (> Golden, < Boskoop, Elstar) Decrease in area continues (-150 ha), mainly Jonagold Producers step gently in new varieties (mainly Kanzi, Belgica, few Rubens, Junami, Pinova; stopped planting Greenstar )

37. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 37 Belgium (II): good size, much hail Fruit size much bigger now, but also at harvest time > 2006 expected Picking starts 2 weeks earlier Few russetting and scab, but more mildew Hail damage above average Global warming → increasing problems with woolly aphid and codling moth

38. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 38 France: Prévision de récolte à fin Juillet 2007 Nord 27 000 T + 23% Val de Loire 422 427 T - 1% TOTAL FRANCE 1 613 000 T + 2 % Sud Ouest 468 750 T - 3% Sud Est 484 000 T + 4% TOTAL FRANCE 1 613 000 T + 2 % Nord 27 000 T + 23% Val de Loire 422 000 T +- 1% Sud Ouest 469 000 T - 3% Sud Est 484 000 T + 4%

39. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 39 France in detail Decrease of areage levels out: 2007:06 -2% after -10% 2006:05 Ample blossoming and fruit set (ex. Red Delicious), much thinning needed On average, normal yields Good sizes Average hail damage, mainly Lot-et-Garonne, Vaucluse (after nearly no hail 2006) Picking in the North 10-15 days earlier, normal in the South Stocks on July 1, 2007 -21% vs. 2006

40. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA en Tonnes Récolte française : Destinations

41. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA par variété en Tonnes

42. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 42 DE: crop forecasts in the main growing regions 1. Niederelbe 304.000 t + 1% vs. 2006 + 15% vs. Ø 2003-2006 2. Bodensee 281.000 t + 25% vs. 2006 + 26% vs. Ø 2003-2006 3. Sachsen 86.000 t ­ 3% vs. 2006 ­ 5% vs. Ø 2003-2006 1 2 3 300 250 100 capacity DE: 1,0 million tons

43. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 43 Germany in detail Lower crops of old varieties (Cox Orange, Idared, Gloster) due to uprooting All-time record expected for Elstar, Braeburn, Gala, Pinova No scab, few russetting Fruit size to date in advance, at picking date expected to be normal (in Lake of Constance smaller than 2006 due to heavy fruit set) Hail above average (similar as 2006) Start picking 2 weeks earlier (the 1st ‚Klarapfel‘ ripe for picking reported June 26!), cold nights at the end of July good for colour

44. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 44 Fruit set 1) in „Streuobstbau“ (W-Germany) 1) according to definition Prof. Winter

45. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 45 Others 38% Alto Adige 42% Trentino 20% (1.000 t)2007vs. 06 (%) Alto Adige857- 7 Trentino417+ 15 Rest of Italy769 + 9 Total2.043+ 3

46. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 46 Italy in detail (I) South of Tyrol –Fruit set in the hills better than in the valleys, light set Cripps Pink –Quality very good, however sunburn in the last decade of July (especially Gala) –Golden russetting in Etsch valley widespread –Av. sizes similar as in 2006 expected (more medium sized, less under/oversized) –More hail damage than in 2006 (2006 3.500 ha affected) –Picking 8-10 days earlier (Gala Aug 6, young orchards Aug 1-2), colour (depending on clone) might be a problem

47. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 47 Italy in detail (II) Trentino –Very good crop (volume and quality) in Valle di Non –Hail damage in Valle di Non neglectible, but considerable damage south of Trento –Storage capacity in Valle di Non might be short Po valley –Problem of water seemed resolved by end of June, but again on the agenda due to heat and drought in July –Hail in all main growing areas

48. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 48 NL: high yields Decrease in acreage 2% –Smaller acreage of all traditional varieties (e.g. Jonagold -9%) –Strong increase of new varieties (Kanzi, Junami, Rubens) Good weather conditions during blossoming and cell division period Good fruit set Jonagold, Elstar, Golden, biennial bearing Boskoop („off-year“) Larger sizes at picking date expected A lot of hail in Zealand, Noordoostpolder, Goes region (nearly 1.000 ha affected) Picking 2 weeks earlier

49. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 49 PT: lowest crop since 1998 At beginning of blossoming good weather conditions, later on frequent rains and strong winds Below average fruit set High incidence of fungal infections

50. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 50 Spain – 2007 ought to be „on year“ in biennial bearing cycle, but isn‘t in Catalonia 304.000 t- 7% / 2006-15%/ 03-06 160.000 t +40% / 2006 + 6% / 03-06 Total 570.000 t + 4%/2006 -21%/2003-06 Source: CCAE Contrary to CCAE MAPA expects -9% for Spain, -10% for Aragon!

51. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 51 In fact, two below average crops in a row Catalonia –Acreage reduced (-4%), „plan de reconversion“, uprooting Red >Gala >Fuji –Frost damage March 22-23 –Cold, rainy weather during/after blossoming –Very low yield Red Delicious (12 t/ha) –„On-year“ for Fuji Hail in May (about 700 ha in Lerida, Aragon)

52. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 52 UK: acreage stabilized and modernized Acreage hit rock bottom 2003-05, last 3 years considerable planting of Braeburn, Gala, Jazz, Kanzi, Cameo, also replanting of trad. varieties Ideal blossoming conditions, very good fruit set Much hail, about 10% of the crop damaged/destroyed Much optimism in the industry –Consumers/supermarkets ask for locally produced apples („foodmiles“/climate change discussion) –Increased demand for juice/cider apples (success of new premium drink „cider over ice“)

53. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 53 CZ: lowest crop since 1995 Buds/blossoms damaged by 3 frost spells with min temp of -7°C each (April 6 & 21, May 1) A lot of fruits not suited for fresh market Imports table apples will increase (normal 60.- 70.000 t) Backgarden crop likewise damaged: decrease from 105.000 t to 65.000 t (mainly processing (2006 40.000 t) and exports for processing (2006 57.000 t affected)

54. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 54 HU (I): frost damage as in 2007 once a century 1st cold spell April 20- 22 Lowest temp in Northeast Data don‘t show the real threat as measured at 2 m hight and within towns

55. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 55 HU (II): frost damage as in 2007 once a century 2nd cold spell May 1-3, much more damage than during the 1st one Freezing temp. for 6 resp. 8 hours Lowest temp. in valleys of Szatmar region -8/-9°C Fruitlets and leaves got lack

56. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 56 HU (III): frost damaged region the most important as regards apples Szabolcs-Szatmat-Bereg losses 80%, remaining for processing only Transdanubia plains losses 50-60% W/SW-Hungary no frost damage, but losses by sunburn up to 10% Big sizes, risk of physiological problems

57. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 57 HU (IV): supply for processing and fresh market likewise tight Average processing share 75% due to dominating old Jonathan orchards in Northeast 2007 only about 60% for processing expected in spite of quality defects (frost, sunburn), how that? Regions targeting fresh market will contribute a higher proportion to the national crop Source: Dr. E.Kallay

58. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 58 PL(I): Smallest crop since 1990 1st cold spell April 22-24, min temp -4/-6°C at bottom in fruit growing regions 2nd cold spell April 30-May 2 -9°C (ground)/ -5°C (2m) Grojec region, others -5°C (gr.)/ -3 to -4°C (2m) 145.000 of 170.000 ha apple orchards affected Forecast Prof.Makosz 1,2 mln t (GUS even 0,9 to 1,1 mln t) Last comparable frost years: 1990 (812.000 t) and 1987 Sufficient water, good growth conditions, big sizes

59. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 59 PL (II): Effects on processing volume Forecasts 500.-600.000 t Juice apple imports from Moldavia Processing of minor quality (e.g. small thinned apples) Less exports, more imports of ajc Great impact on world ajc market Juice apple prices will skyrocket

60. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 60 PL(III): effects on trade Exports will decrease more (in %) than production Major imports for the first time (much depends on consumer reaction upon higher prices) Opportunity for EU-15 to replace Polish apples in Russia (directly or via PL) ?

61. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 61 Slovenia: normal crop Blossoming more than two weeks in advance Good fruit growth until end of June (size T- stadium 2-3 mm above av.), slowing down due to heat in July Less hail than in previous years About 25% for processing (half of it due to hail damage) Picking Gala/Elstar will start Aug 5-10 in Central/South Slovenia (colour still lacking)

62. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 62 Boom organic apples slowed down Two-digit increase in organic fresh fruit buyings - moderate increase apple buyings Background: general decrease in apple buyings last season Tight supply organic spring/summer 2006 Influence backgarden crop volume value

63. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 63 Bigger organic apple crop 2007 – About 70.000 t in „Central Europe“ (considerably more „conversion“, less „full organic“ than in 2006) – more than in 2006: Lake of Constance Region, South of Tyrol, NL – less than in 2006: Austria, France –Higher proportion Golden, Elstar, less Topaz

64. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 64 Conclusions apple market Extremely strong demand for juice apples expected as ajc stocks sold out and supply processing apples much lower High prices of juice apples will give an incentive to divert minor qualities to processing Shortage in NMS provides opportunity (for EU-15) to export more to NMS and Russia Competition from non-EU countries?  lecture Mr.Peres High probability that season average table apple prices will increase further

65. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 65

66. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 66 Review pears 2006/07 EU-15 crop underestimated (forecast 2,44 mln, final 2,56 mln t)  biggest crop for years Disappointing quality (small sizes, rough skin …) Consequently disappointing domestic consumption (-4% in 7 OMS, hh panel data) Pressure to expand exports (257.000 => 317.000 t) Bad quality opened door for increased S.H. imports (Extra-EU15 imp 311.000 => 340.000 t) Low prices Limits of growth or only a question of quality?

67. PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA 67 Hope for better season 2007/08 Production slightly below average Generally lower fruit set and better sizes „off-year“ in Southern Europe Production capacity in B/NL continues to grow